Building a predictive model that rapidly adapts to real-time condition monitoring (CM) signals is critical for engineering systems/units. Unfortunately, many current methods suffer from a trade-off between representation power and agility in online settings. For instance, parametric methods that assume an underlying functional form for CM signals facilitate efficient online prediction updates. However, this simplification leads to vulnerability to model specifications and an inability to capture complex signals. On the other hand, approaches based on over-parameterized or non-parametric models can excel at explaining complex nonlinear signals, but real-time updates for such models pose a challenging task. In this paper, we propose a neural process-based approach that addresses this trade-off. It encodes available observations within a CM signal into a representation space and then reconstructs the signal's history and evolution for prediction. Once trained, the model can encode an arbitrary number of observations without requiring retraining, enabling on-the-spot real-time predictions along with quantified uncertainty and can be readily updated as more online data is gathered. Furthermore, our model is designed to incorporate qualitative information (i.e., labels) from individual units. This integration not only enhances individualized predictions for each unit but also enables joint inference for both signals and their associated labels. Numerical studies on both synthetic and real-world data in reliability engineering highlight the advantageous features of our model in real-time adaptation, enhanced signal prediction with uncertainty quantification, and joint prediction for labels and signals.

It has been shown that the problem of \ell_1 -penalized least-square regression commonly referred to as the Lasso or Basis Pursuit DeNoising leads to solutions that are sparse and therefore achieves model selection. We propose in this paper an algorithm to solve the Lasso with online observations. We introduce an optimization problem that allows us to compute an homotopy from the current solution to the solution after observing a new data point. We compare our method to Lars and present an application to compressed sensing with sequential observations. Our approach can also be easily extended to compute an homotopy from the current solution to the solution after removing a data point, which leads to an efficient algorithm for leave-one-out cross-validation.

Online field experiments are the gold-standard way of evaluating changes to real-world interactive machine learning systems. Yet our ability to explore complex, multi-dimensional policy spaces - such as those found in recommendation and ranking problems - is often constrained by the limited number of experiments that can be run simultaneously. To alleviate these constraints, we augment online experiments with an offline simulator and apply multi-task Bayesian optimization to tune live machine learning systems. We describe practical issues that arise in these types of applications, including biases that arise from using a simulator and assumptions for the multi-task kernel. We measure empirical learning curves which show substantial gains from including data from biased offline experiments, and show how these learning curves are consistent with theoretical results for multi-task Gaussian process generalization. We find that improved kernel inference is a significant driver of multi-task generalization. Finally, we show several examples of Bayesian optimization efficiently tuning a live machine learning system by combining offline and online experiments.