However, for the recommender system experiment, there are no natural representations for the candidate models. IS-g/DR-g Off-policy evaluation (OPE) methods can provide an estimate of the accumulative metric. The resulting methods aredenoted asIS-EI andDR-EIrespectively. Asthere arelimited information tobegained byrepeatedly deploying thesame model online, we exclude the models that have been deployed when choosing the next model to deploy for all the methodsincludingAOE. We simulate the "online" deployment scenario as follows: a multi-class classifier is given a set of inputs; for each input, the classifier returns a prediction of the label and only a binary immediate feedback about whether the predicted class is correct is available. They-axisshowsthe gap in the accumulativemetric between the optimal model and the estimated best model by each method.

We consider the problem of variance reduction in randomized controlled trials, through the use of covariates correlated with the outcome but independent of the treatment. We propose a machine learning regression-adjusted treatment effect estimator, which we call MLRATE. MLRATE uses machine learning predictors of the outcome to reduce estimator variance. It employs cross-fitting to avoid overfitting biases, and we prove consistency and asymptotic normality under general conditions. MLRATE is robust to poor predictions from the machine learning step: if the predictions are uncorrelated with the outcomes, the estimator performs asymptotically no worse than the standard difference-in-means estimator, while if predictions are highly correlated with outcomes, the efficiency gains are large. In A/A tests, for a set of 48 outcome metrics commonly monitored in Facebook experiments, the estimator has over $70\%$ lower variance than the simple difference-in-means estimator, and about $19\%$ lower variance than the common univariate procedure which adjusts only for pre-experiment values of the outcome.

To provide an additional demonstrating example to the intuition in Sec.

In the online ride-hailing pricing context, companies often conduct randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and utilize uplift models to assess the effect of discounts on customer orders, which substantially influences competitive market outcomes. However, due to the high cost of RCTs, the proportion of trial data relative to observational data is small, which only accounts for 0.65\% of total traffic in our context, resulting in significant bias when generalizing to the broader user base. Additionally, the complexity of industrial processes reduces the quality of RCT data, which is often subject to heterogeneity from potential interference and selection bias, making it difficult to correct. Moreover, existing data fusion methods are challenging to implement effectively in complex industrial settings due to the high dimensionality of features and the strict assumptions that are hard to verify with real-world data. To address these issues, we propose an empirical data fusion method called pseudo-sample matching. By generating pseudo-samples from biased, low-quality RCT data and matching them with the most similar samples from large-scale observational data, the method expands the RCT dataset while mitigating its heterogeneity. We validated the method through simulation experiments, conducted offline and online tests using real-world data. In a week-long online experiment, we achieved a 0.41\% improvement in profit, which is a considerable gain when scaled to industrial scenarios with hundreds of millions in revenue. In addition, we discuss the harm to model training, offline evaluation, and online economic benefits when the RCT data quality is not high, and emphasize the importance of improving RCT data quality in industrial scenarios. Further details of the simulation experiments can be found in the GitHub repository https://github.com/Kairong-Han/Pseudo-Matching.

A critical challenge in recommender systems is to establish reliable relationships between offline and online metrics that predict real-world performance. Motivated by recent advances in Pareto front approximation, we introduce a pragmatic strategy for identifying offline metrics that align with online impact. A key advantage of this approach is its ability to simultaneously serve multiple test groups, each with distinct offline performance metrics, in an online experiment controlled by a single model. The method is model-agnostic for systems with a neural network backbone, enabling broad applicability across architectures and domains. We validate the strategy through a large-scale online experiment in the field of session-based recommender systems on the OTTO e-commerce platform. The online experiment identifies significant alignments between offline metrics and real-word click-through rate, post-click conversion rate and units sold. Our strategy provides industry practitioners with a valuable tool for understanding offline-to-online metric relationships and making informed, data-driven decisions.

We consider the problem of variance reduction in randomized controlled trials, through the use of covariates correlated with the outcome but independent of the treatment. We propose a machine learning regression-adjusted treatment effect estimator, which we call MLRATE. MLRATE uses machine learning predictors of the outcome to reduce estimator variance. It employs cross-fitting to avoid overfitting biases, and we prove consistency and asymptotic normality under general conditions. MLRATE is robust to poor predictions from the machine learning step: if the predictions are uncorrelated with the outcomes, the estimator performs asymptotically no worse than the standard difference-in-means estimator, while if predictions are highly correlated with outcomes, the efficiency gains are large.