The president's comments on the oil price came after he spoke to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Wednesday. According to Saudi State media Bin Salman pledged to invest as much as 600bn in the US over the next four years, however this figure was not mentioned in the White House statement after the call. Despite the cordial exchange, Trump said he would be asking "the Crown Prince, who's a fantastic guy, to round it out to around 1tn". The price of crude fell by 1% following Trump's comments. According to David Oxley, Chief Climate and Commodities Economist at Capital Economics these comments are in keeping with Trump's desire for lower gasoline prices.

Abstract: In the field of global energy and environment, crude oil is an important strategic resource, and its price fluctuation has a far-reaching impact on the global economy, financial market and the process of low-carbon development. In recent years, with the gradual promotion of green energy transformation and low-carbon development in various countries, the dynamics of crude oil market have become more complicated and changeable. The price of crude oil is not only influenced by traditional factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical conflict and production technology, but also faces the challenges of energy policy transformation, carbon emission control and new energy technology development. This diversified driving factor makes the prediction of crude oil price not only very important in economic decision-making and energy planning, but also a key issue in financial markets.In this paper, the spot price data of European Brent crude oil provided by us energy information administration are selected, and a deep learning model with three layers of LSTM units is constructed to predict the crude oil price in the next few days. The results show that the LSTM model performs well in capturing the overall price trend, although there is some deviation during the period of sharp price fluctuation. The research in this paper not only verifies the applicability of LSTM model in energy market forecasting, but also provides data support for policy makers and investors when facing the uncertainty of crude oil price.

However, the prediction of crude oil prices is renowned for its obscurity and complexity. The high degree of volatility, unpredictable, irregular events, and complex interconnections among market factors make it extremely challenging to accurately forecast the fluctuations in crude oil prices. The dynamic interplay of supply and demand and changes in oil prices are influenced by external factors such as economic growth, financial markets, geopolitical conflicts, warfare, and political considerations [1, 2, 3]. A variety of methodologies have been utilised for predicting crude oil prices, involving the application of econometric and statistical time series analysis techniques such as VAR [4], ARIMA, GARCH [5], VMD [6], and Walvet decomposition [7]. In more recent studies, there has been a prevalent use of machine learning models and hybrid approaches [2, 8, 9] in the literature. Nevertheless, achieving accurate oil price forecasting remains a challenging task, particularly in terms of multi-step forecasting. Traditional econometric and statistical methods are often inadequate for forecasting oil prices due to many challenges related to the irregular characteristics of energy markets, such as non-stationarity, multi-frequency, non-linearity, and chaotic properties [10].

Accurate crude oil price forecasting is crucial for various economic activities, including energy trading, risk management, and investment planning. Although deep learning models have emerged as powerful tools for crude oil price forecasting, achieving accurate forecasts remains challenging. Deep learning models' performance is heavily influenced by hyperparameters tuning, and they are expected to perform differently under various circumstances. Furthermore, price volatility is also sensitive to external factors such as world events. To address these limitations, we propose a hybrid approach combining metaheuristic optimisation and an ensemble of five popular neural network architectures used in time series forecasting. Unlike existing methods that apply metaheuristics to optimise hyperparameters within the neural network architecture, we exploit the GWO metaheuristic optimiser at four levels: feature selection, data preparation, model training, and forecast blending. The proposed approach has been evaluated for forecasting three-ahead days using real-world Brent crude oil price data, and the obtained results demonstrate that the proposed approach improves the forecasting performance measured using various benchmarks, achieving 0.000127 of MSE.

This report outlines a transformative initiative in the financial investment industry, where the conventional decision-making process, laden with labor-intensive tasks such as sifting through voluminous documents, is being reimagined. Leveraging language models, our experiments aim to automate information summarization and investment idea generation. We seek to evaluate the effectiveness of fine-tuning methods on a base model (Llama2) to achieve specific application-level goals, including providing insights into the impact of events on companies and sectors, understanding market condition relationships, generating investor-aligned investment ideas, and formatting results with stock recommendations and detailed explanations. Through state-of-the-art generative modeling techniques, the ultimate objective is to develop an AI agent prototype, liberating human investors from repetitive tasks and allowing a focus on high-level strategic thinking. The project encompasses a diverse corpus dataset, including research reports, investment memos, market news, and extensive time-series market data. We conducted three experiments applying unsupervised and supervised LoRA fine-tuning on the llama2_7b_hf_chat as the base model, as well as instruction fine-tuning on the GPT3.5 model. Statistical and human evaluations both show that the fine-tuned versions perform better in solving text modeling, summarization, reasoning, and finance domain questions, demonstrating a pivotal step towards enhancing decision-making processes in the financial domain. Code implementation for the project can be found on GitHub: https://github.com/Firenze11/finance_lm.

Accurate crude oil price prediction is crucial for financial decision-making. We propose a novel reservoir computing model for forecasting crude oil prices. It outperforms popular deep learning methods in most scenarios, as demonstrated through rigorous evaluation using daily closing price data from major stock market indices. Our model's competitive advantage is further validated by comparing it with recent deep-learning approaches. This study introduces innovative reservoir computing models for predicting crude oil prices, with practical implications for financial practitioners. By leveraging advanced techniques, market participants can enhance decision-making and gain valuable insights into crude oil market dynamics.

Predicting market movements based on the sentiment of news media has a long tradition in data analysis. With advances in natural language processing, transformer architectures have emerged that enable contextually aware sentiment classification. Nevertheless, current methods built for the general financial market such as FinBERT cannot distinguish asset-specific value-driving factors. This paper addresses this shortcoming by presenting a method that identifies and classifies events that impact supply and demand in the crude oil markets within a large corpus of relevant news headlines. We then introduce CrudeBERT, a new sentiment analysis model that draws upon these events to contextualize and fine-tune FinBERT, thereby yielding improved sentiment classifications for headlines related to the crude oil futures market. An extensive evaluation demonstrates that CrudeBERT outperforms proprietary and open-source solutions in the domain of crude oil.

National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations(NASDAQ) is an American stock exchange based. It is one of the most valuable stock economic indices in the world and is located in New York City \cite{pagano2008quality}. The volatility of the stock market and the influence of economic indicators such as crude oil, gold, and the dollar in the stock market, and NASDAQ shares are also affected and have a volatile and chaotic nature \cite{firouzjaee2022lstm}.In this article, we have examined the effect of oil, dollar, gold, and the volatility of the stock market in the economic market, and then we have also examined the effect of these indicators on NASDAQ stocks. Then we started to analyze the impact of the feedback on the past prices of NASDAQ stocks and its impact on the current price. Using PCA and Linear Regression algorithm, we have designed an optimal dynamic learning experience for modeling these stocks. The results obtained from the quantitative analysis are consistent with the results of the qualitative analysis of economic studies, and the modeling done with the optimal dynamic experience of machine learning justifies the current price of NASDAQ shares.

The energy transition potentially poses an existential risk for major international oil companies (IOCs) if they fail to adapt to low-carbon business models. Projections of energy futures, however, are met with diverging assumptions on its scale and pace, causing disagreement among IOC decision-makers and their stakeholders over what the business model of an incumbent fossil fuel company should be. In this work, we used deep multi-agent reinforcement learning to solve an energy systems wargame wherein players simulate IOC decision-making, including hydrocarbon and low-carbon investments decisions, dividend policies, and capital structure measures, through an uncertain energy transition to explore critical and non-linear governance questions, from leveraged transitions to reserve replacements. Adversarial play facilitated by state-of-the-art algorithms revealed decision-making strategies robust to energy transition uncertainty and against multiple IOCs. In all games, robust strategies emerged in the form of low-carbon business models as a result of early transition-oriented movement. IOCs adopting such strategies outperformed business-as-usual and delayed transition strategies regardless of hydrocarbon demand projections. In addition to maximizing value, these strategies benefit greater society by contributing substantial amounts of capital necessary to accelerate the global low-carbon energy transition. Our findings point towards the need for lenders and investors to effectively mobilize transition-oriented finance and engage with IOCs to ensure responsible reallocation of capital towards low-carbon business models that would enable the emergence of fossil fuel incumbents as future low-carbon leaders.

Over the past 20 years, Kenya's demand for petroleum products has proliferated. This is mainly because this particular commodity is used in many sectors of the country's economy. Exchange rates are impacted by constantly shifting prices, which also impact Kenya's industrial output of commodities. The cost of other items produced and even the expansion of the economy is significantly impacted by any change in the price of petroleum products. Therefore, accurate petroleum price forecasting is critical for devising policies that are suitable to curb fuel-related shocks. Data mining techniques are the tools used to find valuable patterns in data. Data mining techniques used in petroleum price prediction, including artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector machines (SVMs), and intelligent optimization techniques like the genetic algorithm (GA), have grown increasingly popular. This study provides a comprehensive review of the existing data mining techniques for making predictions on petroleum prices. The data mining techniques are classified into regression models, deep neural network models, fuzzy sets and logic, and hybrid models. A detailed discussion of how these models are developed and the accuracy of the models is provided.