A precision medicine (PM) pipeline was developed to determine the optimal treatment regime for participants in an exercise (E), dietary weight loss (D), and D+E randomized clinical trial for knee osteoarthritis to maximize their expected outcomes. Using data from 343 participants of the Intensive Diet and Exercise for Arthritis (IDEA) trial, we applied 24 machine-learning models to develop individualized treatment rules on seven outcomes: SF-36 physical component score, weight loss, WOMAC pain/function/stiffness scores, compressive force, and IL-6. The optimal precision medicine model (PMM) was selected based on jackknife value function estimates that indicate improvement in the outcome(s) had future participants followed the estimated decision rule, which is then compared against the optimal single, fixed treatment model called zero-order model (ZOM) with a Z-test. Multiple outcome random forest was the optimal model for the WOMAC outcomes. The PMMs supported the overall findings from IDEA that the D+E intervention was optimal for most participants, but there was evidence that a subgroup of participants would likely benefit more from diet alone for two outcomes. This article provides detailed technical background for the clinical data analysis.

Auctions are becoming an increasingly popular method for transacting business, especially over the Internet. This article presents a general approach to building autonomous bidding agents to bid in multiple simultaneous auctions for interacting goods. A core component of our approach learns a model of the empirical price dynamics based on past data and uses the model to analytically calculate, to the greatest extent possible, optimal bids. We introduce a new and general boosting-based algorithm for conditional density estimation problems of this kind, i.e., supervised learning problems in which the goal is to estimate the entire conditional distribution of the real-valued label. This approach is fully implemented as ATTac-2001, a top-scoring agent in the second Trading Agent Competition (TAC-01). We present experiments demonstrating the effectiveness of our boosting-based price predictor relative to several reasonable alternatives.

Despite the significant progress in multiagent teamwork, existing research does not address the optimality of its prescriptions nor the complexity of the teamwork problem. Without a characterization of the optimality-complexity tradeoffs, it is impossible to determine whether the assumptions and approximations made by a particular theory gain enough efficiency to justify the losses in overall performance. To provide a tool for use by multiagent researchers in evaluating this tradeoff, we present a unified framework, the COMmunicative Multiagent Team Decision Problem (COM-MTDP). The COM-MTDP model combines and extends existing multiagent theories, such as decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes and economic team theory. In addition to their generality of representation, COM-MTDPs also support the analysis of both the optimality of team performance and the computational complexity of the agents' decision problem. In analyzing complexity, we present a breakdown of the computational complexity of constructing optimal teams under various classes of problem domains, along the dimensions of observability and communication cost. In analyzing optimality, we exploit the COM-MTDP's ability to encode existing teamwork theories and models to encode two instantiations of joint intentions theory taken from the literature. Furthermore, the COM-MTDP model provides a basis for the development of novel team coordination algorithms. We derive a domain-independent criterion for optimal communication and provide a comparative analysis of the two joint intentions instantiations with respect to this optimal policy. We have implemented a reusable, domain-independent software package based on COM-MTDPs to analyze teamwork coordination strategies, and we demonstrate its use by encoding and evaluating the two joint intentions strategies within an example domain.

Functional relationships between objects, called `attributes', are of considerable importance in knowledge representation languages, including Description Logics (DLs). A study of the literature indicates that papers have made, often implicitly, different assumptions about the nature of attributes: whether they are always required to have a value, or whether they can be partial functions. The work presented here is the first explicit study of this difference for subclasses of the CLASSIC DL, involving the same-as concept constructor. It is shown that although determining subsumption between concept descriptions has the same complexity (though requiring different algorithms), the story is different in the case of determining the least common subsumer (lcs). For attributes interpreted as partial functions, the lcs exists and can be computed relatively easily; even in this case our results correct and extend three previous papers about the lcs of DLs. In the case where attributes must have a value, the lcs may not exist, and even if it exists it may be of exponential size. Interestingly, it is possible to decide in polynomial time if the lcs exists.