We introduce Supported Abstract Argumentation for Case-Based Reasoning (sAA-CBR), a binary classification model in which past cases engage in debates by arguing in favour of their labelling and attacking or supporting those with opposing or agreeing labels. With supports, sAA-CBR overcomes the limitation of its precursor AA-CBR, which can contain extraneous cases (or spikes) that are not included in the debates. We prove that sAA-CBR contains no spikes, without trading off key model properties

Consistency of case bases is a way to avoid the problem of retrieving conflicting constraining precedents for new cases to be decided. However, in legal practice the consistency requirements for case bases may not be satisfied. As pointed out in (Broughton 2019), a model of precedential constraint should take into account the hierarchical structure of the specific legal system under consideration and the temporal dimension of cases. This article continues the research initiated in (Liu et al. 2022; Di Florio et al. 2023), which established a connection between Boolean classifiers and legal case-based reasoning. On this basis, we enrich the classifier models with an organisational structure that takes into account both the hierarchy of courts and which courts issue decisions that are binding/constraining on subsequent cases. We focus on common law systems. We also introduce a temporal relation between cases. Within this enriched framework, we can formalise the notions of overruled cases and cases decided per incuriam: such cases are not to be considered binding on later cases. Finally, we show under which condition principles based on the hierarchical structure and on the temporal dimension can provide an unambiguous decision-making process for new cases in the presence of conflicting binding precedents.

Counterexample-driven genetic programming (CDGP) uses specifications provided as formal constraints to generate the training cases used to evaluate evolving programs. It has also been extended to combine formal constraints and user-provided training data to solve symbolic regression problems. Here we show how the ideas underlying CDGP can also be applied using only user-provided training data, without formal specifications. We demonstrate the application of this method, called ``informal CDGP,'' to software synthesis problems. Our results show that informal CDGP finds solutions faster (i.e. with fewer program executions) than standard GP. Additionally, we propose two new variants to informal CDGP, and find that one produces significantly more successful runs on about half of the tested problems. Finally, we study whether the addition of counterexample training cases to the training set is useful by comparing informal CDGP to using a static subsample of the training set, and find that the addition of counterexamples significantly improves performance.

In the pursuit of enhancing the efficacy and flexibility of interpretable, data-driven classification models, this work introduces a novel incorporation of user-defined preferences with Abstract Argumentation and Case-Based Reasoning (CBR). Specifically, we introduce Preference-Based Abstract Argumentation for Case-Based Reasoning (which we call AA-CBR-P), allowing users to define multiple approaches to compare cases with an ordering that specifies their preference over these comparison approaches. We prove that the model inherently follows these preferences when making predictions and show that previous abstract argumentation for case-based reasoning approaches are insufficient at expressing preferences over constituents of an argument. We then demonstrate how this can be applied to a real-world medical dataset sourced from a clinical trial evaluating differing assessment methods of patients with a primary brain tumour. We show empirically that our approach outperforms other interpretable machine learning models on this dataset.

According to the World Health Organization, the population of children with developmental delays constitutes approximately 6% to 9% of the total population. Based on the number of newborns in Huaibei, Anhui Province, China, in 2023 (94,420), it is estimated that there are about 7,500 cases (suspected cases of developmental delays) of suspicious cases annually. Early identification and appropriate early intervention for these children can significantly reduce the wastage of medical resources and societal costs. International research indicates that the optimal period for intervention in children with developmental delays is before the age of six, with the golden treatment period being before three and a half years of age. Studies have shown that children with developmental delays who receive early intervention exhibit significant improvement in symptoms; some may even fully recover. This research adopts a hybrid model combining a CNN-Transformer model with Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) to enhance the screening efficiency for children with developmental delays. The CNN-Transformer model is an excellent model for image feature extraction and recognition, effectively identifying features in bone age images to determine bone age. CBR is a technique for solving problems based on similar cases; it solves current problems based on past experiences, similar to how humans solve problems through learning from experience. Given CBR's memory capability to judge and compare new cases based on previously stored old cases, it is suitable for application in support systems with latent and variable characteristics. Therefore, this study utilizes the CNN-Transformer-CBR to establish a screening system for children with developmental delays, aiming to improve screening efficiency.

This paper introduces a multilingual dataset of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation, consisting of annotated tweets from three middle-income countries: Brazil, Indonesia, and Nigeria. The expertly curated dataset includes annotations for 5,952 tweets, assessing their relevance to COVID-19 vaccines, presence of misinformation, and the themes of the misinformation. To address challenges posed by domain specificity, the low-resource setting, and data imbalance, we adopt two approaches for developing COVID-19 vaccine misinformation detection models: domain-specific pre-training and text augmentation using a large language model. Our best misinformation detection models demonstrate improvements ranging from 2.7 to 15.9 percentage points in macro F1-score compared to the baseline models. Additionally, we apply our misinformation detection models in a large-scale study of 19 million unlabeled tweets from the three countries between 2020 and 2022, showcasing the practical application of our dataset and models for detecting and analyzing vaccine misinformation in multiple countries and languages. Our analysis indicates that percentage changes in the number of new COVID-19 cases are positively associated with COVID-19 vaccine misinformation rates in a staggered manner for Brazil and Indonesia, and there are significant positive associations between the misinformation rates across the three countries.

The ease and speed of spreading misinformation and propaganda on the Web motivate the need to develop trustworthy technology for detecting fallacies in natural language arguments. However, state-of-the-art language modeling methods exhibit a lack of robustness on tasks like logical fallacy classification that require complex reasoning. In this paper, we propose a Case-Based Reasoning method that classifies new cases of logical fallacy by language-modeling-driven retrieval and adaptation of historical cases. We design four complementary strategies to enrich input representation for our model, based on external information about goals, explanations, counterarguments, and argument structure. Our experiments in in-domain and out-of-domain settings indicate that Case-Based Reasoning improves the accuracy and generalizability of language models. Our ablation studies suggest that representations of similar cases have a strong impact on the model performance, that models perform well with fewer retrieved cases, and that the size of the case database has a negligible effect on the performance. Finally, we dive deeper into the relationship between the properties of the retrieved cases and the model performance.

Modeling and simulations of pandemic dynamics play an essential role in understanding and addressing the spreading of highly infectious diseases such as COVID-19. In this work, we propose a novel deep learning architecture named Attention-based Multiresolution Graph Neural Networks (ATMGNN) that learns to combine the spatial graph information, i.e. geographical data, with the temporal information, i.e. timeseries data of number of COVID-19 cases, to predict the future dynamics of the pandemic. The key innovation is that our method can capture the multiscale structures of the spatial graph via a learning to cluster algorithm in a data-driven manner. This allows our architecture to learn to pick up either local or global signals of a pandemic, and model both the long-range spatial and temporal dependencies. Importantly, we collected and assembled a new dataset for New Zealand. We established a comprehensive benchmark of statistical methods, temporal architectures, graph neural networks along with our spatio-temporal model. We also incorporated socioeconomic cross-sectional data to further enhance our prediction. Our proposed model have shown highly robust predictions and outperformed all other baselines in various metrics for our new dataset of New Zealand along with existing datasets of England, France, Italy and Spain. For a future work, we plan to extend our work for real-time prediction and global scale.

Short-term forecasts of infectious disease spread are a critical component in risk evaluation and public health decision making. While different models for short-term forecasting have been developed, open questions about their relative performance remain. Here, we compare short-term probabilistic forecasts of popular mechanistic models based on the renewal equation with forecasts of statistical time series models. Our empirical comparison is based on data of the daily incidence of COVID-19 across six large US states over the first pandemic year. We find that, on average, probabilistic forecasts from statistical time series models are overall at least as accurate as forecasts from mechanistic models. Moreover, statistical time series models better capture volatility. Our findings suggest that domain knowledge, which is integrated into mechanistic models by making assumptions about disease dynamics, does not improve short-term forecasts of disease incidence. We note, however, that forecasting is often only one of many objectives and thus mechanistic models remain important, for example, to model the impact of vaccines or the emergence of new variants.