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ChronoEpilogi: Scalable Time Series Selection with Multiple Solutions

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the problem of selecting all the minimal-size subsets of multivariate time-series (TS) variables whose past leads to an optimal predictive model for the future (forecasting) of a given target variable (multiple feature selection problem for times-series). Identifying these subsets leads to gaining insights, domain intuition,and a better understanding of the data-generating mechanism; it is often the first step in causal modeling. While identifying a single solution to the feature selection problem suffices for forecasting purposes, identifying all such minimal-size, optimally predictive subsets is necessary for knowledge discovery and important to avoid misleading a practitioner. We develop the theory of multiple feature selection for time-series data, propose the ChronoEpilogi algorithm, and prove its soundness and completeness under two mild, broad, non-parametric distributional assumptions, namely Compositionality of the distribution and Interchangeability of time-series variables in solutions. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate the scalability of ChronoEpilogi to hundreds of TS variables and its efficacy in identifying multiple solutions. In the real datasets, ChronoEpilogi is shown to reduce the number of TS variables by 96% (on average) by conserving or even improving forecasting performance. Furthermore, it is on par with GroupLasso performance, with the added benefit of providing multiple solutions.






ChronoEpilogi: Scalable Time Series Selection with Multiple Solutions

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the problem of selecting all the minimal-size subsets of multivariate time-series (TS) variables whose past leads to an optimal predictive model for the future (forecasting) of a given target variable (multiple feature selection problem for times-series). Identifying these subsets leads to gaining insights, domain intuition,and a better understanding of the data-generating mechanism; it is often the first step in causal modeling. While identifying a single solution to the feature selection problem suffices for forecasting purposes, identifying all such minimal-size, optimally predictive subsets is necessary for knowledge discovery and important to avoid misleading a practitioner. We develop the theory of multiple feature selection for time-series data, propose the ChronoEpilogi algorithm, and prove its soundness and completeness under two mild, broad, non-parametric distributional assumptions, namely Compositionality of the distribution and Interchangeability of time-series variables in solutions. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate the scalability of ChronoEpilogi to hundreds of TS variables and its efficacy in identifying multiple solutions.


Newton Informed Neural Operator for Solving Nonlinear Partial Differential Equations

Neural Information Processing Systems

Solving nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) with multiple solutions is essential in various fields, including physics, biology, and engineering. These methods can become computationally expensive, especially when relying on solvers like Newton's method, which may struggle with ill-posedness near bifurcation points.In this paper, we propose a novel approach, the Newton Informed Neural Operator, which learns the Newton solver for nonlinear PDEs. This approach allows us to compute multiple solutions in a single learning process while requiring fewer supervised data points than existing neural network methods.


Learning and discovering multiple solutions using physics-informed neural networks with random initialization and deep ensemble

Zou, Zongren, Wang, Zhicheng, Karniadakis, George Em

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We explore the capability of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to discover multiple solutions. Many real-world phenomena governed by nonlinear differential equations (DEs), such as fluid flow, exhibit multiple solutions under the same conditions, yet capturing this solution multiplicity remains a significant challenge. A key difficulty is giving appropriate initial conditions or initial guesses, to which the widely used time-marching schemes and Newton's iteration method are very sensitive in finding solutions for complex computational problems. While machine learning models, particularly PINNs, have shown promise in solving DEs, their ability to capture multiple solutions remains underexplored. In this work, we propose a simple and practical approach using PINNs to learn and discover multiple solutions. We first reveal that PINNs, when combined with random initialization and deep ensemble method -- originally developed for uncertainty quantification -- can effectively uncover multiple solutions to nonlinear ordinary and partial differential equations (ODEs/PDEs). Our approach highlights the critical role of initialization in shaping solution diversity, addressing an often-overlooked aspect of machine learning for scientific computing. Furthermore, we propose utilizing PINN-generated solutions as initial conditions or initial guesses for conventional numerical solvers to enhance accuracy and efficiency in capturing multiple solutions. Extensive numerical experiments, including the Allen-Cahn equation and cavity flow, where our approach successfully identifies both stable and unstable solutions, validate the effectiveness of our method. These findings establish a general and efficient framework for addressing solution multiplicity in nonlinear differential equations.