Uncertainty modeling is critical in trajectory forecasting systems for both interpretation and safety reasons.

Uncertainty modeling is critical in trajectory-forecasting systems for both interpretation and safety reasons. To better predict the future trajectories of multiple agents, recent works have introduced interaction modules to capture interactions among agents. This approach leads to correlations among the predicted trajectories. However, the uncertainty brought by such correlations is neglected. To fill this gap, we propose a novel concept, collaborative uncertainty (CU), which models the uncertainty resulting from the interaction module.

We present our approach, Collision Avoidance Detour (CAD), which won the 3rd place award in the 2023 Waymo Open Dataset Challenge - Sim Agents, held at the 2023 CVPR Workshop on Autonomous Driving. To satisfy the motion prediction factorization requirement, we partition all the valid objects into three mutually exclusive sets: Autonomous Driving Vehicle (ADV), World-tracks-to-predict, and World-others. We use different motion models to forecast their future trajectories independently. Furthermore, we also apply collision avoidance detour resampling, additive Gaussian noise, and velocity-based heading estimation to improve the realism of our simulation result.