Accurate prediction of financial market volatility is critical for risk management, derivatives pricing, and investment strategy. In this study, we propose a multitude of regime-switching methods to improve the prediction of S&P 500 volatility by capturing structural changes in the market across time. We use eleven years of SPX data, from May 1st, 2014 to May 27th, 2025, to compute daily realized volatility (RV) from 5-minute intraday log returns, adjusted for irregular trading days. To enhance forecast accuracy, we engineered features to capture both historical dynamics and forward-looking market sentiment across regimes. The regime-switching methods include a soft Markov switching algorithm to estimate soft-regime probabilities, a distributional spectral clustering method that uses XGBoost to assign clusters at prediction time, and a coefficient-based soft regime algorithm that extracts HAR coefficients from time segments segmented through the Mood test and clusters through Bayesian GMM for soft regime weights, using XGBoost to predict regime probabilities. Models were evaluated across three time periods--before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The coefficient-based clustering algorithm outperformed all other models, including the baseline autoregressive model, during all time periods. Additionally, each model was evaluated on its recursive forecasting performance for 5- and 10-day horizons during each time period. The findings of this study demonstrate the value of regime-aware modeling frameworks and soft clustering approaches in improving volatility forecasting, especially during periods of heightened uncertainty and structural change.

This paper presents a novel hybrid model that integrates long-short-term memory (LSTM) networks and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to significantly enhance the accuracy of stock market predictions. The LSTM component adeptly captures temporal patterns in stock price data, effectively modeling the time series dynamics of financial markets. Concurrently, the GNN component leverages Pearson correlation and association analysis to model inter-stock relational data, capturing complex nonlinear polyadic dependencies influencing stock prices. The model is trained and evaluated using an expanding window validation approach, enabling continuous learning from increasing amounts of data and adaptation to evolving market conditions. Extensive experiments conducted on historical stock data demonstrate that our hybrid LSTM-GNN model achieves a mean square error (MSE) of 0.00144, representing a substantial reduction of 10.6% compared to the MSE of the standalone LSTM model of 0.00161. Furthermore, the hybrid model outperforms traditional and advanced benchmarks, including linear regression, convolutional neural networks (CNN), and dense networks. These compelling results underscore the significant potential of combining temporal and relational data through a hybrid approach, offering a powerful tool for real-time trading and financial analysis.

With the global economic integration and the high interconnection of financial markets, financial institutions are facing unprecedented challenges, especially liquidity risk. This paper proposes a liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) prediction model based on the gated recurrent unit (GRU) network to help financial institutions manage their liquidity risk more effectively. By utilizing the GRU network in deep learning technology, the model can automatically learn complex patterns from historical data and accurately predict LCR for a period of time in the future. The experimental results show that compared with traditional methods, the GRU model proposed in this study shows significant advantages in mean absolute error (MAE), proving its higher accuracy and robustness. This not only provides financial institutions with a more reliable liquidity risk management tool but also provides support for regulators to formulate more scientific and reasonable policies, which helps to improve the stability of the entire financial system.

Understanding how features evolve across layers in deep neural networks is a fundamental challenge in mechanistic interpretability, particularly due to polysemanticity and feature superposition. While Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) have been used to extract interpretable features from individual layers, aligning these features across layers has remained an open problem. In this paper, we introduce SAE Match, a novel, data-free method for aligning SAE features across different layers of a neural network. Our approach involves matching features by minimizing the mean squared error between the folded parameters of SAEs, a technique that incorporates activation thresholds into the encoder and decoder weights to account for differences in feature scales. Through extensive experiments on the Gemma 2 language model, we demonstrate that our method effectively captures feature evolution across layers, improving feature matching quality. We also show that features persist over several layers and that our approach can approximate hidden states across layers. Our work advances the understanding of feature dynamics in neural networks and provides a new tool for mechanistic interpretability studies.

In this work, we present a novel forward differential deep learning-based algorithm for solving high-dimensional nonlinear backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). Motivated by the fact that differential deep learning can efficiently approximate the labels and their derivatives with respect to inputs, we transform the BSDE problem into a differential deep learning problem. This is done by leveraging Malliavin calculus, resulting in a system of BSDEs. The unknown solution of the BSDE system is a triple of processes $(Y, Z, \Gamma)$, representing the solution, its gradient, and the Hessian matrix. The main idea of our algorithm is to discretize the integrals using the Euler-Maruyama method and approximate the unknown discrete solution triple using three deep neural networks. The parameters of these networks are then optimized by globally minimizing a differential learning loss function, which is novelty defined as a weighted sum of the dynamics of the discretized system of BSDEs. Through various high-dimensional examples, we demonstrate that our proposed scheme is more efficient in terms of accuracy and computation time compared to other contemporary forward deep learning-based methodologies.

This paper explores the prediction of subsequent steps in H\'enon Map using various machine learning techniques. The H\'enon map, well known for its chaotic behaviour, finds applications in various fields including cryptography, image encryption, and pattern recognition. Machine learning methods, particularly deep learning, are increasingly essential for understanding and predicting chaotic phenomena. This study evaluates the performance of different machine learning models including Random Forest, Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Feed Forward Neural Networks (FNN) in predicting the evolution of the H\'enon map. Results indicate that LSTM network demonstrate superior predictive accuracy, particularly in extreme event prediction. Furthermore, a comparison between LSTM and FNN models reveals the LSTM's advantage, especially for longer prediction horizons and larger datasets. This research underscores the significance of machine learning in elucidating chaotic dynamics and highlights the importance of model selection and dataset size in forecasting subsequent steps in chaotic systems.

In this work, we propose a novel backward differential deep learning-based algorithm for solving high-dimensional nonlinear backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs), where the deep neural network (DNN) models are trained not only on the inputs and labels but also the differentials of the corresponding labels. This is motivated by the fact that differential deep learning can provide an efficient approximation of the labels and their derivatives with respect to inputs. The BSDEs are reformulated as differential deep learning problems by using Malliavin calculus. The Malliavin derivatives of solution to a BSDE satisfy themselves another BSDE, resulting thus in a system of BSDEs. Such formulation requires the estimation of the solution, its gradient, and the Hessian matrix, represented by the triple of processes $\left(Y, Z, \Gamma\right).$ All the integrals within this system are discretized by using the Euler-Maruyama method. Subsequently, DNNs are employed to approximate the triple of these unknown processes. The DNN parameters are backwardly optimized at each time step by minimizing a differential learning type loss function, which is defined as a weighted sum of the dynamics of the discretized BSDE system, with the first term providing the dynamics of the process $Y$ and the other the process $Z$. An error analysis is carried out to show the convergence of the proposed algorithm. Various numerical experiments up to $50$ dimensions are provided to demonstrate the high efficiency. Both theoretically and numerically, it is demonstrated that our proposed scheme is more efficient compared to other contemporary deep learning-based methodologies, especially in the computation of the process $\Gamma$.

In today's digital age, the internet is essential for communication and the sharing of information, creating a critical need for sophisticated data security measures to prevent unauthorized access and exploitation. Cryptography encrypts messages into a cipher text that is incomprehensible to unauthorized readers, thus safeguarding data during its transmission. Steganography, on the other hand, originates from the Greek term for "covered writing" and involves the art of hiding data within another medium, thereby facilitating covert communication by making the message invisible. This proposed approach takes advantage of the latest advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Deep Learning (DL), especially through the application of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), to improve upon traditional steganographic methods. By embedding encrypted data within another medium, our method ensures that the communication remains hidden from prying eyes. The application of GANs enables a smart, secure system that utilizes the inherent sensitivity of neural networks to slight alterations in data, enhancing the protection against detection. By merging the encryption techniques of cryptography with the hiding capabilities of steganography, and augmenting these with the strengths of AI, we introduce a comprehensive security system designed to maintain both the privacy and integrity of information. This system is crafted not just to prevent unauthorized access or modification of data, but also to keep the existence of the data hidden. This fusion of technologies tackles the core challenges of data security in the current era of open digital communication, presenting an advanced solution with the potential to transform the landscape of information security.

There are multiple applications to automatically count people and specify their gender at work, exhibitions, malls, sales, and industrial usage. Although current speech detection methods are supposed to operate well, in most situations, in addition to genders, the number of current speakers is unknown and the classification methods are not suitable due to many possible classes. In this study, we focus on a long-short-term memory convolutional neural network (LSTM-CNN) to extract time and / or frequency-dependent features of the sound data to estimate the number / gender of simultaneous active speakers at each frame in noisy environments. Considering the maximum number of speakers as 10, we have utilized 19000 audio samples with diverse combinations of males, females, and background noise in public cities, industrial situations, malls, exhibitions, workplaces, and nature for learning purposes. This proof of concept shows promising performance with training/validation MSE values of about 0.019/0.017 in detecting count and gender.