Many critical decision-making tasks are now delegated to machine-learned models, and it is imperative that their decisions are trustworthy and reliable, and their outputs are consistent across similar inputs. We identify a new source of unreliable behaviors-called glitches-which may significantly impair the reliability of AI models having steep decision boundaries. Roughly speaking, glitches are small neighborhoods in the input space where the model's output abruptly oscillates with respect to small changes in the input. We provide a formal definition of glitches, and use well-known models and datasets from the literature to demonstrate that they have widespread existence and argue they usually indicate potential model inconsistencies in the neighborhood of where they are found. We proceed to the algorithmic search of glitches for widely used gradient-boosted decision tree (GBDT) models. We prove that the problem of detecting glitches is NP-complete for tree ensembles, already for trees of depth 4. Our glitch-search algorithm for GBDT models uses an MILP encoding of the problem, and its effectiveness and computational feasibility are demonstrated on a set of widely used GBDT benchmarks taken from the literature.

We propose a neural-network based survival model (SurvSurf) specifically designed for direct and simultaneous probabilistic prediction of the first hitting time of sequential events from baseline. Unlike existing models, SurvSurf is theoretically guaranteed to never violate the monotonic relationship between the cumulative incidence functions of sequential events, while allowing nonlinear influence from predictors. It also incorporates implicit truths for unobserved intermediate events in model fitting, and supports both discrete and continuous time and events. We also identified a variant of the Integrated Brier Score (IBS) that showed robust correlation with the mean squared error (MSE) between the true and predicted probabilities by accounting for implied truths about the missing intermediate events. We demonstrated the superiority of SurvSurf compared to modern and traditional predictive survival models in two simulated datasets and two real-world datasets, using MSE, the more robust IBS and by measuring the extent of monotonicity violation.

Predicting the accuracy of candidate neural architectures is an important capability of NAS-based solutions. When a candidate architecture has properties that are similar to other known architectures, the prediction task is rather straightforward using off-the-shelf regression algorithms. However, when a candidate architecture lies outside of the known space of architectures, a regression model has to perform extrapolated predictions, which is not only a challenging task, but also technically impossible using the most popular regression algorithm families, which are based on decision trees. In this work, we are trying to address two problems. The first one is improving regression accuracy using feature selection, whereas the other one is the evaluation of regression algorithms on extrapolating accuracy prediction tasks. We extend the NAAP-440 dataset with new tabular features and introduce NAAP-440e, which we use for evaluation. We observe a dramatic improvement from the old baseline, namely, the new baseline requires 3x shorter training processes of candidate architectures, while maintaining the same mean-absolute-error and achieving almost 2x fewer monotonicity violations, compared to the old baseline's best reported performance. The extended dataset and code used in the study have been made public in the NAAP-440 repository.

Neural architecture search (NAS) has become a common approach to developing and discovering new neural architectures for different target platforms and purposes. However, scanning the search space is comprised of long training processes of many candidate architectures, which is costly in terms of computational resources and time. Regression algorithms are a common tool to predicting a candidate architecture's accuracy, which can dramatically accelerate the search procedure. We aim at proposing a new baseline that will support the development of regression algorithms that can predict an architecture's accuracy just from its scheme, or by only training it for a minimal number of epochs. Therefore, we introduce the NAAP-440 dataset of 440 neural architectures, which were trained on CIFAR10 using a fixed recipe. Our experiments indicate that by using off-the-shelf regression algorithms and running up to 10% of the training process, not only is it possible to predict an architecture's accuracy rather precisely, but that the values predicted for the architectures also maintain their accuracy order with a minimal number of monotonicity violations. This approach may serve as a powerful tool for accelerating NAS-based studies and thus dramatically increase their efficiency. The dataset and code used in the study have been made public.