Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Summary: This paper describes an approach to statistical model criticism using the kernel two-sample test maximum mean discrepancy. The idea behind model criticism is simply to assess the ability of a given model to explain the observed data, and more importantly, to determine in which regions of the space the data is most misinterpreted by the model. For this purpose, the witness function of the MMD test is employed. This function takes large absolute values where the predictive distribution of the model considered is most different from the distribution of the actual observed data. The benefits of the approach described are shown in experiments involving restricted Boltzmann machines, deep networks and Gaussian processes.

Understanding the world through models is a fundamental goal of scientific research. While large language model (LLM) based approaches show promise in automating scientific discovery, they often overlook the importance of criticizing scientific models. Criticizing models deepens scientific understanding and drives the development of more accurate models. Automating model criticism is difficult because it traditionally requires a human expert to define how to compare a model with data and evaluate if the discrepancies are significant--both rely heavily on understanding the modeling assumptions and domain. Although LLM-based critic approaches are appealing, they introduce new challenges: LLMs might hallucinate the critiques themselves. Motivated by this, we introduce CriticAL (Critic Automation with Language Models). CriticAL uses LLMs to generate summary statistics that capture discrepancies between model predictions and data, and applies hypothesis tests to evaluate their significance. We can view CriticAL as a verifier that validates models and their critiques by embedding them in a hypothesis testing framework. In experiments, we evaluate CriticAL across key quantitative and qualitative dimensions. In settings where we synthesize discrepancies between models and datasets, CriticAL reliably generates correct critiques without hallucinating incorrect ones. We show that both human and LLM judges consistently prefer CriticAL's critiques over alternative approaches in terms of transparency and actionability. Finally, we show that CriticAL's critiques enable an LLM scientist to improve upon human-designed models on real-world datasets.

We propose an exploratory approach to statistical model criticism using maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) two sample tests. Typical approaches to model criticism require a practitioner to select a statistic by which to measure discrepancies between data and a statistical model. MMD two sample tests are instead constructed as an analytic maximisation over a large space of possible statistics and therefore automatically select the statistic which most shows any discrepancy. We demonstrate on synthetic data that the selected statistic, called the witness function, can be used to identify where a statistical model most misrepresents the data it was trained on. We then apply the procedure to real data where the models being assessed are restricted Boltzmann machines, deep belief networks and Gaussian process regression and demonstrate the ways in which these models fail to capture the properties of the data they are trained on.

Example-based explanations are widely used in the effort to improve the interpretability of highly complex distributions. However, prototypes alone are rarely sufficient to represent the gist of the complexity. In order for users to construct better mental models and understand complex data distributions, we also need criticism to explain what are not captured by prototypes. Motivated by the Bayesian model criticism framework, we develop MMD-critic which efficiently learns prototypes and criticism, designed to aid human interpretability. A human subject pilot study shows that the MMD-critic selects prototypes and criticism that are useful to facilitate human understanding and reasoning. We also evaluate the prototypes selected by MMD-critic via a nearest prototype classifier, showing competitive performance compared to baselines.