The Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) is a method for discovering nonlinear dynamical system models from data. Quantifying uncertainty in SINDy models is essential for assessing their reliability, particularly in safety-critical applications. While various uncertainty quantification methods exist for SINDy, including Bayesian and ensemble approaches, this work explores the integration of Conformal Prediction, a framework that can provide valid prediction intervals with coverage guarantees based on minimal assumptions like data exchangeability. We introduce three applications of conformal prediction with Ensemble-SINDy (E-SINDy): (1) quantifying uncertainty in time series prediction, (2) model selection based on library feature importance, and (3) quantifying the uncertainty of identified model coefficients using feature conformal prediction. We demonstrate the three applications on stochastic predator-prey dynamics and several chaotic dynamical systems. We show that conformal prediction methods integrated with E-SINDy can reliably achieve desired target coverage for time series forecasting, effectively quantify feature importance, and produce more robust uncertainty intervals for model coefficients, even under non-Gaussian noise, compared to standard E-SINDy coefficient estimates.

Recovering a physics-driven model, i.e. a governing set of equations of the underlying dynamical systems, from the real-world data has been of recent interest. Most existing methods either operate on simulation data with unrealistically high sampling rates or require explicit measurements of all system variables, which is not amenable in real-world deployments. Moreover, they assume the timestamps of external perturbations to the physical system are known a priori, without uncertainty, implicitly discounting any sensor time-synchronization or human reporting errors. In this paper, we propose a novel liquid time constant neural network (LTC-NN) based architecture to recover underlying model of physical dynamics from real-world data. The automatic differentiation property of LTC-NN nodes overcomes problems associated with low sampling rates, the input dependent time constant in the forward pass of the hidden layer of LTC-NN nodes creates a massive search space of implicit physical dynamics, the physics model solver based data reconstruction loss guides the search for the correct set of implicit dynamics, and the use of the dropout regularization in the dense layer ensures extraction of the sparsest model. Further, to account for the perturbation timing error, we utilize dense layer nodes to search through input shifts that results in the lowest reconstruction loss. Experiments on four benchmark dynamical systems, three with simulation data and one with the real-world data show that the LTC-NN architecture is more accurate in recovering implicit physics model coefficients than the state-of-the-art sparse model recovery approaches. We also introduce four additional case studies (total eight) on real-life medical examples in simulation and with real-world clinical data to show effectiveness of our approach in recovering underlying model in practice.

This paper introduces the sgboost package in R, which implements sparse-group boosting for modeling high-dimensional data with natural groupings in covariates. Sparse-group boosting offers a flexible approach for both group and individual variable selection, reducing overfitting and enhancing model interpretability. The package uses regularization techniques based on the degrees of freedom of individual and group base-learners, and is designed to be used in conjunction with the mboost package. Through comparisons with existing methods and demonstration of its unique functionalities, this paper provides a practical guide on utilizing sparse-group boosting in R, accompanied by code examples to facilitate its application in various research domains. Overall, this paper serves as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners seeking to use sparse-group boosting for efficient and interpretable high-dimensional data analysis.

A probabilistic model based on the horseshoe prior is proposed for learning dependencies in the process of identifying relevant features for prediction. Exact inference is intractable in this model. However, expectation propagation offers an approximate alternative. Because the process of estimating feature selection dependencies may suffer from over-fitting in the model proposed, additional data from a multi-task learning scenario are considered for induction. The same model can be used in this setting with few modifications. Furthermore, the assumptions made are less restrictive than in other multi-task methods: The different tasks must share feature selection dependencies, but can have different relevant features and model coefficients. Experiments with real and synthetic data show that this model performs better than other multi-task alternatives from the literature. The experiments also show that the model is able to induce suitable feature selection dependencies for the problems considered, only from the training data.

Unknown-unknowns are operational scenarios in systems that are not accounted for in the design and test phase. In such scenarios, the operational behavior of the Human-in-loop (HIL) Human-in-Plant (HIP) systems is not guaranteed to meet requirements such as safety and efficacy. We propose a novel framework for analyzing the operational output characteristics of safety-critical HIL-HIP systems that can discover unknown-unknown scenarios and evaluate potential safety hazards. We propose dynamics-induced hybrid recurrent neural networks (DiH-RNN) to mine a physics-guided surrogate model (PGSM) that checks for deviation of the cyber-physical system (CPS) from safety-certified operational characteristics. The PGSM enables early detection of unknown-unknowns based on the physical laws governing the system. We demonstrate the detection of operational changes in an Artificial Pancreas(AP) due to unknown insulin cartridge errors.

Autonomous racing is a critical research area for autonomous driving, presenting significant challenges in vehicle dynamics modeling, such as balancing model precision and computational efficiency at high speeds (>280kmph), where minor errors in modeling have severe consequences. Existing physics-based models for vehicle dynamics require elaborate testing setups and tuning, which are hard to implement, time-intensive, and cost-prohibitive. Conversely, purely data-driven approaches do not generalize well and cannot adequately ensure physical constraints on predictions. This paper introduces Deep Dynamics, a physics-informed neural network (PINN) for vehicle dynamics modeling of an autonomous racecar. It combines physics coefficient estimation and dynamical equations to accurately predict vehicle states at high speeds and includes a unique Physics Guard layer to ensure internal coefficient estimates remain within their nominal physical ranges. Open-loop and closed-loop performance assessments, using a physics-based simulator and full-scale autonomous Indy racecar data, highlight Deep Dynamics as a promising approach for modeling racecar vehicle dynamics.

Common regularization algorithms for linear regression, such as LASSO and Ridge regression, rely on a regularization hyperparameter that balances the tradeoff between minimizing the fitting error and the norm of the learned model coefficients. As this hyperparameter is scalar, it can be easily selected via random or grid search optimizing a cross-validation criterion. However, using a scalar hyperparameter limits the algorithm's flexibility and potential for better generalization. In this paper, we address the problem of linear regression with l2-regularization, where a different regularization hyperparameter is associated with each input variable. We optimize these hyperparameters using a gradient-based approach, wherein the gradient of a cross-validation criterion with respect to the regularization hyperparameters is computed analytically through matrix differential calculus. Additionally, we introduce two strategies tailored for sparse model learning problems aiming at reducing the risk of overfitting to the validation data. Numerical examples demonstrate that our multi-hyperparameter regularization approach outperforms LASSO, Ridge, and Elastic Net regression. Moreover, the analytical computation of the gradient proves to be more efficient in terms of computational time compared to automatic differentiation, especially when handling a large number of input variables. Application to the identification of over-parameterized Linear Parameter-Varying models is also presented.

Data cubes are multidimensional databases, often built from several separate databases, that serve as flexible basis for data analysis. Surprisingly, outlier detection on data cubes has not yet been treated extensively. In this work, we provide the first framework to evaluate robust outlier detection methods in data cubes (RODD). We introduce a novel random forest-based outlier detection approach (RODD-RF) and compare it with more traditional methods based on robust location estimators. We propose a general type of test data and examine all methods in a simulation study. Moreover, we apply ROOD-RF to real world data. The results show that RODD-RF can lead to improved outlier detection.

We address the problem of learning a machine learning model from training data that originates at multiple data owners, while providing formal privacy guarantees regarding the protection of each owner's data. Existing solutions based on Differential Privacy (DP) achieve this at the cost of a drop in accuracy. Solutions based on Secure Multiparty Computation (MPC) do not incur such accuracy loss but leak information when the trained model is made publicly available. We propose an MPC solution for training DP models. Our solution relies on an MPC protocol for model training, and an MPC protocol for perturbing the trained model coefficients with Laplace noise in a privacy-preserving manner. The resulting MPC+DP approach achieves higher accuracy than a pure DP approach, while providing the same formal privacy guarantees. Our work obtained first place in the iDASH2021 Track III competition on confidential computing for secure genome analysis.

This article was published as a part of the Data Science Blogathon. In the recent years, face recognition applications have been developed on a much larger scale. Image classification and recognition has evolved and is being used at a number of places. I recently read an article where a face recognition application has been deployed at one of the airports for a completely automated check in process. This will alleviate the need for manual intervention and provide a seamless end to end check in process via technology.