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Space evaluation at the starting point of soccer transitions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Soccer is a sport played on a pitch where effective use of space is crucial. Decision-making during transitions, when possession switches between teams, has been increasingly important, but research on space evaluation in these moments has been limited. Recent space evaluation methods such as OBSO (Off-Ball Scoring Opportunity) use scoring probability, so it is not well-suited for assessing areas far from the goal, where transitions typically occur. In this paper, we propose OBPV (Off-Ball Positioning Value) to evaluate space across the pitch, including the starting points of transitions. OBPV extends OBSO by introducing the field value model, which evaluates the entire pitch, and by employing the transition kernel model, which reflects positional specificity through kernel density estimation of pass distributions. Experiments using La Liga 2023/24 season tracking and event data show that OBPV highlights effective space utilization during counter-attacks and reveals team-specific characteristics in how the teams utilize space after positive and negative transitions.


Mathematical models for off-ball scoring prediction in basketball

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In professional basketball, the accurate prediction of scoring opportunities based on strategic decision-making is crucial for space and player evaluations. However, traditional models often face challenges in accounting for the complexities of off-ball movements, which are essential for accurate predictive performance. In this study, we propose two mathematical models to predict off-ball scoring opportunities in basketball, considering both pass-to-score and dribble-to-score movements: the Ball Movement for Off-ball Scoring (BMOS) and the Ball Intercept and Movement for Off-ball Scoring (BIMOS) models. The BMOS adapts principles from the Off-Ball Scoring Opportunities (OBSO) model, originally designed for soccer, to basketball, whereas the BIMOS also incorporates the likelihood of interception during ball movements. We evaluated these models using player tracking data from 630 NBA games in the 2015-2016 regular season, demonstrating that the BIMOS outperforms the BMOS in terms of scoring prediction accuracy. Thus, our models provide valuable insights for tactical analysis and player evaluation in basketball.


Offensive Lineup Analysis in Basketball with Clustering Players Based on Shooting Style and Offensive Role

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In a basketball game, scoring efficiency holds significant importance due to the numerous offensive possessions per game. Enhancing scoring efficiency necessitates effective collaboration among players with diverse playing styles. In previous studies, basketball lineups have been analyzed, but their playing style compatibility has not been quantitatively examined. The purpose of this study is to analyze more specifically the impact of playing style compatibility on scoring efficiency, focusing only on offense. This study employs two methods to capture the playing styles of players on offense: shooting style clustering using tracking data, and offensive role clustering based on annotated playtypes and advanced statistics. For the former, interpretable hand-crafted shot features and Wasserstein distances between shooting style distributions were utilized. For the latter, soft clustering was applied to playtype data for the first time. Subsequently, based on the lineup information derived from these two clusterings, machine learning models Bayesian models that predict statistics representing scoring efficiency were trained and interpreted. These approaches provide insights into which combinations of five players tend to be effective and which combinations of two players tend to produce good effects.


Action valuation of on- and off-ball soccer players based on multi-agent deep reinforcement learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Analysis of invasive sports such as soccer is challenging because the game situation changes continuously in time and space, and multiple agents individually recognize the game situation and make decisions. Previous studies using deep reinforcement learning have often considered teams as a single agent and valued the teams and players who hold the ball in each discrete event. Then it was challenging to value the actions of multiple players, including players far from the ball, in a spatiotemporally continuous state space. In this paper, we propose a method of valuing possible actions for on- and off-ball soccer players in a single holistic framework based on multi-agent deep reinforcement learning. We consider a discrete action space in a continuous state space that mimics that of Google research football and leverages supervised learning for actions in reinforcement learning. In the experiment, we analyzed the relationships with conventional indicators, season goals, and game ratings by experts, and showed the effectiveness of the proposed method. Our approach can assess how multiple players move continuously throughout the game, which is difficult to be discretized or labeled but vital for teamwork, scouting, and fan engagement.


Data-driven Analysis for Understanding Team Sports Behaviors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding the principles of real-world biological multi-agent behaviors is a current challenge in various scientific and engineering fields. The rules regarding the real-world biological multi-agent behaviors such as team sports are often largely unknown due to their inherently higher-order interactions, cognition, and body dynamics. Estimation of the rules from data, i.e., data-driven approaches such as machine learning, provides an effective way for the analysis of such behaviors. Although most data-driven models have non-linear structures and high prediction performances, it is sometimes hard to interpret them. This survey focuses on data-driven analysis for quantitative understanding of invasion team sports behaviors such as basketball and football, and introduces two main approaches for understanding such multi-agent behaviors: (1) extracting easily interpretable features or rules from data and (2) generating and controlling behaviors in visually-understandable ways. The first approach involves the visualization of learned representations and the extraction of mathematical structures behind the behaviors. The second approach can be used to test hypotheses by simulating and controlling future and counterfactual behaviors. Lastly, the potential practical applications of extracted rules, features, and generated behaviors are discussed. These approaches can contribute to a better understanding of multi-agent behaviors in the real world.


Rensch To Host Chess And Machine Learning Panel At MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

#artificialintelligence

With interest soaring in machine learning and its role in all kinds of games, chess will be in the spotlight at the prestigious MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference this year, organizers announced today. The chess program is scheduled for Saturday, March 2. Chess.com's The panel places chess at the famous Sloan conference, which has deeply influenced the landscape of sports and social science analytics in recent years. The session is called Chess AI Transformation: How Self Learning AI Taught Chess Computers (and Humans) a Lesson. "The game of chess continues to act as a barometer for the leading edge of artificial intelligence, and [...] artificial intelligence continues to fundamentally transform the game at the highest levels," according to the conference promotional materials.