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 missingness pattern


Weighted Conformal Prediction Provides Adaptive and Valid Mask-Conditional Coverage for General Missing Data Mechanisms

Fan, Jiarong, Vo, Juhyun Park. Thi Phuong Thuy, Brunel, Nicolas

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, but it fails to guarantee coverage when faced with missing covariates. In addressing the heterogeneity induced by various missing patterns, Mask-Conditional Valid (MCV) Coverage has emerged as a more desirable property than Marginal Coverage. In this work, we adapt split CP to handle missing values by proposing a preimpute-mask-then-correct framework that can offer valid coverage. We show that our method provides guaranteed Marginal Coverage and Mask-Conditional Validity for general missing data mechanisms. A key component of our approach is a reweighted conformal prediction procedure that corrects the prediction sets after distributional imputation (multiple imputation) of the calibration dataset, making our method compatible with standard imputation pipelines. We derive two algorithms, and we show that they are approximately marginally valid and MCV. We evaluate them on synthetic and real-world datasets. It reduces significantly the width of prediction intervals w.r.t standard MCV methods, while maintaining the target guarantees.


IVGAE: Handling Incomplete Heterogeneous Data with a Variational Graph Autoencoder

Zhou, Youran, Bouadjenek, Mohamed Reda, Aryal%, Sunil

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Handling missing data remains a fundamental challenge in real-world tabular datasets, especially when data are heterogeneous with both numerical and categorical features. Existing imputation methods often fail to capture complex structural dependencies and handle heterogeneous data effectively. We present \textbf{IVGAE}, a Variational Graph Autoencoder framework for robust imputation of incomplete heterogeneous data. IVGAE constructs a bipartite graph to represent sample-feature relationships and applies graph representation learning to model structural dependencies. A key innovation is its \textit{dual-decoder architecture}, where one decoder reconstructs feature embeddings and the other models missingness patterns, providing structural priors aware of missing mechanisms. To better encode categorical variables, we introduce a Transformer-based heterogeneous embedding module that avoids high-dimensional one-hot encoding. Extensive experiments on 16 real-world datasets show that IVGAE achieves consistent improvements in RMSE and downstream F1 across MCAR, MAR, and MNAR missing scenarios under 30\% missing rates. Code and data are available at: https://github.com/echoid/IVGAE.


PI-NAIM: Path-Integrated Neural Adaptive Imputation Model

Khaled, Afifa, Sumiea, Ebrahim Hamid

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Medical imaging and multi-modal clinical settings often face the challange of missing modality in their diagnostic pipelines. Existing imputation methods either lack representational capacity or are computationally expensive. We propose PI-NAIM, a novel dual-path architecture that dynamically routes samples to optimized imputation approaches based on missingness complexity. Our framework integrates: (1) intelligent path routing that directs low missingness samples to efficient statistical imputation (MICE) and complex patterns to powerful neural networks (GAIN with temporal analysis); (2) cross-path attention fusion that leverages missingness-aware embeddings to intelligently combine both branches; and (3) end-to-end joint optimization of imputation accuracy and downstream task performance. Extensive experiments on MIMIC-III and multimodal benchmarks demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, achieving RMSE of 0.108 (vs. baselines' 0.119-0.152) and substantial gains in downstream tasks with an AUROC of 0.812 for mortality prediction. PI-NAIM's modular design enables seamless integration into vision pipelines handling incomplete sensor measurements, missing modalities, or corrupted inputs, providing a unified solution for real-world scenario. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/AfifaKhaled/PI-NAIM-Path-Integrated-Neural-Adaptive-Imputation-Model


Appendix for PulseImpute

Neural Information Processing Systems

A1.1 What is the rationale for constructing a dataset for mHealth signal imputation from equivalent signals connected in the clinical setting? We can mimic real-world mHealth settings by applying realistic patterns of mHealth missingness. A1.2 What are the differences in how the ECG/PPG sensors collect pulsative signals across both settings? An ECG signal is a recording of the electrical activity of the heart. In clinical hospital settings, the pulse oximeter device is clipped to a stationary patient's finger, so the A1.3 How do the populations differ in these two settings?



Export Reviews, Discussions, Author Feedback and Meta-Reviews

Neural Information Processing Systems

Perhaps a log-log plot would be better. Q2: Please summarize your review in 1-2 sentences This is a well-written and clear paper, but I think the proposed method is well understood by the graphical models community and is not that original. I also feel that the experiments section was not objective enough - both the strengths and the weakness of a method need to be discussed by the authors.


Imputation-Powered Inference

Zhao, Sarah, Candès, Emmanuel

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Modern multi-modal and multi-site data frequently suffer from blockwise missingness, where subsets of features are missing for groups of individuals, creating complex patterns that challenge standard inference methods. Existing approaches have critical limitations: complete-case analysis discards informative data and is potentially biased; doubly robust estimators for non-monotone missingness-where the missingness patterns are not nested subsets of one another-can be theoretically efficient but lack closed-form solutions and often fail to scale; and blackbox imputation can leverage partially observed data to improve efficiency but provides no inferential guarantees when misspecified. To address the limitations of these existing methods, we propose imputation-powered inference (IPI), a model-lean framework that combines the flexibility of blackbox imputation with bias correction using fully observed data, drawing on ideas from prediction-powered inference and semiparametric inference. IPI enables valid and efficient M-estimation under missing completely at random (MCAR) blockwise missingness and improves subpopulation inference under a weaker assumption we formalize as first-moment MCAR, for which we also provide practical diagnostics. Simulation studies and a clinical application demonstrate that IPI may substantially improve subpopulation efficiency relative to complete-case analysis, while maintaining statistical validity in settings where both doubly robust estimators and naive imputation fail to achieve nominal coverage.


Tabular foundation model for GEOAI benchmark problems BM/AirportSoilProperties/2/2025

Saito, Taiga, Otake, Yu, Wu, Stephen

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a novel application of the Tabular Prior-Data Fitted Network (TabPFN) - a transformer-based foundation model for tabular data - to geotechnical site characterization problems defined in the GEOAI benchmark BM/AirportSoilProperties/2/2025. Two tasks are addressed: (1) predicting the spatial variation of undrained shear strength (su) across borehole depth profiles, and (2) imputing missing mechanical parameters in a dense-site dataset. We apply TabPFN in a zero-training, few-shot, in-context learning setting - without hyper-parameter tuning - and provide it with additional context from the big indirect database (BID). The study demonstrates that TabPFN, as a general-purpose foundation model, achieved superior accuracy and well-calibrated predictive distributions compared to a conventional hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM) baseline, while also offering significant gains in inference efficiency. In Benchmark Problem #1 (spatial su prediction), TabPFN outperformed the HBM in prediction accuracy and delivered an order-of-magnitude faster runtime. In Benchmark Problem #2 (missing mechanical parameter imputation), TabPFN likewise achieved lower RMSE for all target parameters with well-quantified uncertainties, though its cumulative computation cost was higher than HBM's due to its one-variable-at-a-time inference. These results mark the first successful use of a tabular foundation model in geotechnical modeling, suggesting a potential paradigm shift in probabilistic site characterization.


A Unified Framework for Inference with General Missingness Patterns and Machine Learning Imputation

Chen, Xingran, McCormick, Tyler, Mukherjee, Bhramar, Wu, Zhenke

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Pre-trained machine learning (ML) predictions have been increasingly used to complement incomplete data to enable downstream scientific inquiries, but their naive integration risks biased inferences. Recently, multiple methods have been developed to provide valid inference with ML imputations regardless of prediction quality and to enhance efficiency relative to complete-case analyses. However, existing approaches are often limited to missing outcomes under a missing-completely-at-random (MCAR) assumption, failing to handle general missingness patterns under the more realistic missing-at-random (MAR) assumption. This paper develops a novel method which delivers valid statistical inference framework for general Z-estimation problems using ML imputations under the MAR assumption and for general missingness patterns. The core technical idea is to stratify observations by distinct missingness patterns and construct an estimator by appropriately weighting and aggregating pattern-specific information through a masking-and-imputation procedure on the complete cases. We provide theoretical guarantees of asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator and efficiency dominance over weighted complete-case analyses. Practically, the method affords simple implementations by leveraging existing weighted complete-case analysis software. Extensive simulations are carried out to validate theoretical results. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on practical implications, limitations, and potential future directions.