meteorological forecasting
Forecasting the Future with Future Technologies: Advancements in Large Meteorological Models
Shu, Hailong, Wang, Yue, Song, Weiwei, Guo, Huichuang, Song, Zhen
The field of meteorological forecasting has undergone a significant transformation with the integration of large models, especially those employing deep learning techniques. This paper reviews the advancements and applications of these models in weather prediction, emphasizing their role in transforming traditional forecasting methods. Models like FourCastNet, Pangu-Weather, GraphCast, ClimaX, and FengWu have made notable contributions by providing accurate, high-resolution forecasts, surpassing the capabilities of traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. These models utilize advanced neural network architectures, such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), and Transformers, to process diverse meteorological data, enhancing predictive accuracy across various time scales and spatial resolutions. The paper addresses challenges in this domain, including data acquisition and computational demands, and explores future opportunities for model optimization and hardware advancements. It underscores the integration of artificial intelligence with conventional meteorological techniques, promising improved weather prediction accuracy and a significant contribution to addressing climate-related challenges. This synergy positions large models as pivotal in the evolving landscape of meteorological forecasting.
- Research Report > Promising Solution (1.00)
- Overview (1.00)
VN-Net: Vision-Numerical Fusion Graph Convolutional Network for Sparse Spatio-Temporal Meteorological Forecasting
Xiong, Yutong, Zhu, Xun, Wu, Ming, Li, Weiqing, Mo, Fanbin, Zhang, Chuang, Zhang, Bin
Sparse meteorological forecasting is indispensable for fine-grained weather forecasting and deserves extensive attention. Recent studies have highlighted the potential of spatio-temporal graph convolutional networks (ST-GCNs) in predicting numerical data from ground weather stations. However, as one of the highest fidelity and lowest latency data, the application of the vision data from satellites in ST-GCNs remains unexplored. There are few studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of combining the above multi-modal data for sparse meteorological forecasting. Towards this objective, we introduce Vision-Numerical Fusion Graph Convolutional Network (VN-Net), which mainly utilizes: 1) Numerical-GCN (N-GCN) to adaptively model the static and dynamic patterns of spatio-temporal numerical data; 2) Vision-LSTM Network (V-LSTM) to capture multi-scale joint channel and spatial features from time series satellite images; 4) a GCN-based decoder to generate hourly predictions of specified meteorological factors. As far as we know, VN-Net is the first attempt to introduce GCN method to utilize multi-modal data for better handling sparse spatio-temporal meteorological forecasting. Our experiments on Weather2k dataset show VN-Net outperforms state-of-the-art by a significant margin on mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) for temperature, relative humidity, and visibility forecasting. Furthermore, we conduct interpretation analysis and design quantitative evaluation metrics to assess the impact of incorporating vision data.
It could be worse, it could be raining: reliable automatic meteorological forecasting
Cristani, Matteo, Domenichini, Francesco, Tomazzoli, Claudio, Viganò, Luca, Zorzi, Margherita
Meteorological forecasting provides reliable prediction about the future weather within a given interval of time. Meteorological forecasting can be viewed as a form of hybrid diagnostic reasoning and can be mapped onto an integrated conceptual framework. The automation of the forecasting process would be helpful in a number of contexts, in particular: when the amount of data is too wide to be dealt with manually; to support forecasters education; when forecasting about underpopulated geographic areas is not interesting for everyday life (and then is out from human forecasters' tasks) but is central for tourism sponsorship. We present logic MeteoLOG, a framework that models the main steps of the reasoner the forecaster adopts to provide a bulletin. MeteoLOG rests on several traditions, mainly on fuzzy, temporal and probabilistic logics. On this basis, we also introduce the algorithm Tournament, that transforms a set of MeteoLOG rules into a defeasible theory, that can be implemented into an automatic reasoner. We finally propose an example that models a real world forecasting scenario.
- Europe > North Sea (0.04)
- Europe > Italy > Veneto (0.04)
- Atlantic Ocean > North Atlantic Ocean > North Sea (0.04)
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- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Expert Systems (0.94)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Logic & Formal Reasoning (0.93)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Uncertainty > Fuzzy Logic (0.46)