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 medical diagnosis and prediction


Your evidence? Machine learning algorithms for medical diagnosis and prediction

#artificialintelligence

There is a famous scene in the movie "Harry Potter and the Half‐Blood Prince": A student has been cursed, investigations are under way. All at once, Harry shouts "It was Malfoy." McGonagall replies "This is a very serious accusation, Potter." "Indeed," agrees Snape and continues "Your evidence?" Harry immediately responds, "I just know."


Methodologic Guide for Evaluating Clinical Performance and Effect of Artificial Intelligence Technology for Medical Diagnosis and Prediction

#artificialintelligence

The use of artificial intelligence in medicine is currently an issue of great interest, especially with regard to the diagnostic or predictive analysis of medical images. Adoption of an artificial intelligence tool in clinical practice requires careful confirmation of its clinical utility. Herein, the authors explain key methodology points involved in a clinical evaluation of artificial intelligence technology for use in medicine, especially high-dimensional or overparameterized diagnostic or predictive models in which artificial deep neural networks are used, mainly from the standpoints of clinical epidemiology and biostatistics. First, statistical methods for assessing the discrimination and calibration performances of a diagnostic or predictive model are summarized. Next, the effects of disease manifestation spectrum and disease prevalence on the performance results are explained, followed by a discussion of the difference between evaluating the performance with use of internal and external datasets, the importance of using an adequate external dataset obtained from a well-defined clinical cohort to avoid overestimating the clinical performance as a result of overfitting in high-dimensional or overparameterized classification model and spectrum bias, and the essentials for achieving a more robust clinical evaluation.