Bayesian inference is a major problem in statistics that is also encountered in many machine learning methods. For example, Gaussian mixture models, for classification, or Latent Dirichlet Allocation, for topic modelling, are both graphical models requiring to solve such a problem when fitting the data. Meanwhile, it can be noticed that Bayesian inference problems can sometimes be very difficult to solve depending on the model settings (assumptions, dimensionality, …). In large problems, exact solutions require, indeed, heavy computations that often become intractable and some approximation techniques have to be used to overcome this issue and build fast and scalable systems. In this post we will discuss the two main methods that can be used to tackle the Bayesian inference problem: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), that is a sampling based approach, and Variational Inference (VI), that is an approximation based approach.

Consider a probabilistic model with joint distribution p(x, z) where x are data and z are latent variables and/or random parameters. Suppose that exact inference in p(x, z) is intractable which means that the posterior distribution p(z x) p(x, z) p(x, z)dz, is difficult to compute due to the normalizing constant p(x) p(x, z)dz that represents the probability of the data and it is known as evidence or marginal likelihood. The marginal likelihood is essential for estimation of any extra parameters in p(x) or for model comparison. Approximate inference algorithms target to approximate p(z x) and/or p(x). Two general frameworks, that we briefly review next, are based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [33, 2] and variational inference (VI) [17, 40].

Two popular classes of methods for approximate inference are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference. MCMC tends to be accurate if run for a long enough time, while variational inference tends to give better approximations at shorter time horizons. However, the amount of time needed for MCMC to exceed the performance of variational methods can be quite high, motivating more fine-grained tradeoffs. This paper derives a distribution over variational parameters, designed to minimize a bound on the divergence between the resulting marginal distribution and the target, and gives an example of how to sample from this distribution in a way that interpolates between the behavior of existing methods based on Langevin dynamics and stochastic gradient variational inference (SGVI).