make prediction
Regression with Cost-based Rejection
Learning with rejection is an important framework that can refrain from making predictions to avoid critical mispredictions by balancing between prediction and rejection. Previous studies on cost-based rejection only focused on the classification setting, which cannot handle the continuous and infinite target space in the regression setting. In this paper, we investigate a novel regression problem called regression with cost-based rejection, where the model can reject to make predictions on some examples given certain rejection costs. To solve this problem, we first formulate the expected risk for this problem and then derive the Bayes optimal solution, which shows that the optimal model should reject to make predictions on the examples whose variance is larger than the rejection cost when the mean squared error is used as the evaluation metric. Furthermore, we propose to train the model by a surrogate loss function that considers rejection as binary classification and we provide conditions for the model consistency, which implies that the Bayes optimal solution can be recovered by our proposed surrogate loss. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.
When Worlds Collide: Integrating Different Counterfactual Assumptions in Fairness
Machine learning is now being used to make crucial decisions about people's lives. For nearly all of these decisions there is a risk that individuals of a certain race, gender, sexual orientation, or any other subpopulation are unfairly discriminated against. Our recent method has demonstrated how to use techniques from counterfactual inference to make predictions fair across different subpopulations. This method requires that one provides the causal model that generated the data at hand. In general, validating all causal implications of the model is not possible without further assumptions.
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- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Neural Networks (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Supervised Learning (0.96)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Inductive Learning (0.68)
- North America > United States (0.14)
- Europe > United Kingdom > England > Oxfordshire > Oxford (0.14)
- Europe > Greece (0.06)
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- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Neural Networks (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Supervised Learning (0.96)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Inductive Learning (0.68)
Just Read the Question: Enabling Generalization to New Assessment Items with Text Awareness
Khan, Arisha, Li, Nathaniel, Shen, Tori, Rafferty, Anna N.
Machine learning has been proposed as a way to improve educational assessment by making fine-grained predictions about student performance and learning relationships between items. One challenge with many machine learning approaches is incorporating new items, as these approaches rely heavily on historical data. We develop Text-LENS by extending the LENS partial variational auto-encoder for educational assessment to leverage item text embeddings, and explore the impact on predictive performance and generalization to previously unseen items. We examine performance on two datasets: Eedi, a publicly available dataset that includes item content, and LLM-Sim, a novel dataset with test items produced by an LLM. We find that Text-LENS matches LENS' performance on seen items and improves upon it in a variety of conditions involving unseen items; it effectively learns student proficiency from and makes predictions about student performance on new items.
Two out of Three (ToT): using self-consistency to make robust predictions
Lee, Jung Hoon, Vijayan, Sujith
Deep learning (DL) can automatically construct intelligent agents, deep neural networks (alternatively, DL models), that can outperform humans in certain tasks. However, the operating principles of DL remain poorly understood, making its decisions incomprehensible. As a result, it poses a great risk to deploy DL in high-stakes domains in which mistakes or errors may lead to critical consequences. Here, we aim to develop an algorithm that can help DL models make more robust decisions by allowing them to abstain from answering when they are uncertain. Our algorithm, named `Two out of Three (ToT)', is inspired by the sensitivity of the human brain to conflicting information. ToT creates two alternative predictions in addition to the original model prediction and uses the alternative predictions to decide whether it should provide an answer or not.
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