There is growing interest in improving our algorithmic understanding of fundamental statistical problems such as mean estimation, driven by the goal of understanding the fundamental limits of what we can extract from limited and valuable data. The state of the art results for mean estimation in R are 1) the optimal sub-Gaussian mean estimator by [Lee and Valiant, 2022], attaining the optimal sub-Gaussian error constant for all distributions with finite but unknown variance, and 2) the analysis of the median-of-means algorithm by [Bubeck, Cesa-Bianchi and Lugosi, 2013] and a matching lower bound by [Devroye, Lerasle, Lugosi, and Oliveira, 2016], characterizing the big-O optimal errors for distributions that have tails heavy enough that only a 1 + α moment exists for some α (0,1). Both of these results, however, are optimal only in the worst case. Motivated by the recent effort in the community to go "beyond the worst-case analysis" of algorithms, we initiate the fine-grained study of the mean estimation problem: Is it possible for algorithms to leverage beneficial features/quirks of their input distribution to beat the sub-Gaussian rate, without explicit knowledge of these features? We resolve this question, finding an unexpectedly nuanced answer: "Yes in limited regimes, but in general no". Given a distribution p, assuming only that it has a finite mean and absent any additional assumptions, we show how to construct a distribution qn,δ such that the means of p and q are well-separated, yet p and q are impossible to distinguish with n samples with probability 1 δ, and q further preserves the finiteness of moments of p.

Many tasks in modern machine learning can be formulated as finding equilibria in \emph{sequential} games. In particular, two-player zero-sum sequential games, also known as minimax optimization, have received growing interest. It is tempting to apply gradient descent to solve minimax optimization given its popularity and success in supervised learning. However, it has been noted that naive application of gradient descent fails to find some local minimax and can converge to non-local-minimax points. In this paper, we propose \emph{Follow-the-Ridge} (FR), a novel algorithm that provably converges to and only converges to local minimax. We show theoretically that the algorithm addresses the notorious rotational behaviour of gradient dynamics, and is compatible with preconditioning and \emph{positive} momentum. Empirically, FR solves toy minimax problems and improves the convergence of GAN training compared to the recent minimax optimization algorithms.