We analyze two widely used local attribution methods, Local Shapley Values and LIME, which aim to quantify the contribution of a feature value $x_i$ to a specific prediction $f(x_1, \dots, x_p)$. Despite their widespread use, we identify fundamental limitations in their ability to reliably detect locally important features, even under ideal conditions with exact computations and independent features. We argue that a sound local attribution method should not assign importance to features that neither influence the model output (e.g., features with zero coefficients in a linear model) nor exhibit statistical dependence with functionality-relevant features. We demonstrate that both Local SV and LIME violate this fundamental principle. To address this, we propose R-LOCO (Regional Leave Out COvariates), which bridges the gap between local and global explanations and provides more accurate attributions. R-LOCO segments the input space into regions with similar feature importance characteristics. It then applies global attribution methods within these regions, deriving an instance's feature contributions from its regional membership. This approach delivers more faithful local attributions while avoiding local explanation instability and preserving instance-specific detail often lost in global methods.

We study the problem of identifying change points in high-dimensional generalized linear models, and propose an approach based on sample-weighted empirical risk minimization. Our method, Weighted ERM, encodes priors on the change points via weights assigned to each sample, to obtain weighted versions of standard estimators such as M-estimators and maximum-likelihood estimators. Under mild assumptions on the data, we obtain a precise asymptotic characterization of the performance of our method for general Gaussian designs, in the high-dimensional limit where the number of samples and covariate dimension grow proportionally. We show how this characterization can be used to efficiently construct a posterior distribution over change points. Numerical experiments on both simulated and real data illustrate the efficacy of Weighted ERM compared to existing approaches, demonstrating that sample weights constructed with weakly informative priors can yield accurate change point estimators. Our method is implemented as an open-source package, weightederm, available in Python and R.

Contextual learning seeks to learn a decision policy that maps an individual's characteristics to an action through data collection. In operations management, such data may come from various sources, and a central question is when data collection can stop while still guaranteeing that the learned policy is sufficiently accurate. We study this question under two precision criteria: a context-wise criterion and an aggregate policy-value criterion. We develop unified stopping rules for contextual learning with unknown sampling variances in both unstructured and structured linear settings. Our approach is based on generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) statistics for pairwise action comparisons. To calibrate the corresponding sequential boundaries, we derive new time-uniform deviation inequalities that directly control the self-normalized GLR evidence and thus avoid the conservativeness caused by decoupling mean and variance uncertainty. Under the Gaussian sampling model, we establish finite-sample precision guarantees for both criteria. Numerical experiments on synthetic instances and two case studies demonstrate that the proposed stopping rules achieve the target precision with substantially fewer samples than benchmark methods. The proposed framework provides a practical way to determine when enough information has been collected in personalized decision problems. It applies across multiple data-collection environments, including historical datasets, simulation models, and real systems, enabling practitioners to reduce unnecessary sampling while maintaining a desired level of decision quality.

Scientists often want to explain why an outcome is different in two groups. For instance, differences in patient mortality rates across two hospitals could be due to differences in the patients themselves (covariates) or differences in medical care (outcomes given covariates). The Oaxaca--Blinder decomposition (OBD) is a standard tool to tease apart these factors. It is well known that the OBD requires choosing one of the groups as a reference, and the numerical answer can vary with the reference. To the best of our knowledge, there has not been a systematic investigation into whether the choice of OBD reference can yield different substantive conclusions and how common this issue is. In the present paper, we give existence proofs in real and simulated data that the OBD references can yield substantively different conclusions and that these differences are not entirely driven by model misspecification or small data. We prove that substantively different conclusions occur in up to half of the parameter space, but find these discrepancies rare in the real-data analyses we study. We explain this empirical rarity by examining how realistic data-generating processes can be biased towards parameters that do not change conclusions under the OBD.

Recently, linear formulations and convex optimization methods have been proposed to predict diffusion-weighted Magnetic Resonance Imaging (dMRI) data given estimates of brain connections generated using tractography algorithms. The size of the linear models comprising such methods grows with both dMRI data and connectome resolution, and can become very large when applied to modern data. In this paper, we introduce a method to encode dMRI signals and large connectomes, i.e., those that range from hundreds of thousands to millions of fascicles (bundles of neuronal axons), by using a sparse tensor decomposition. We show that this tensor decomposition accurately approximates the Linear Fascicle Evaluation (LiFE) model, one of the recently developed linear models. We provide a theoretical analysis of the accuracy of the sparse decomposed model, LiFESD, and demonstrate that it can reduce the size of the model significantly. Also, we develop algorithms to implement the optimisation solver using the tensor representation in an efficient way.

Contextual bandits have become popular as they offer a middle ground between very simple approaches based on multi-armed bandits and very complex approaches using the full power of reinforcement learning. They have demonstrated success in web applications and have a rich body of associated theoretical guarantees. Linear models are well understood theoretically and preferred by practitioners because they are not only easily interpretable but also simple to implement and debug. Furthermore, if the linear model is true, we get very strong performance guarantees. Unfortunately, in emerging applications in mobile health, the time-invariant linear model assumption is untenable.

In this paper, we address the problems of identifying linear structural equation models and discovering the constraints they imply. We first extend the half-trek criterion to cover a broader class of models and apply our extension to finding testable constraints implied by the model. We then show that any semi-Markovian linear model can be recursively decomposed into simpler sub-models, resulting in improved identification and constraint discovery power. Finally, we show that, unlike the existing methods developed for linear models, the resulting method subsumes the identification and constraint discovery algorithms for non-parametric models.

Most machine learning methods assume fixed probability distributions, limiting their applicability in nonstationary real-world scenarios. While continual learning methods address this issue, current approaches often rely on black-box models or require extensive user intervention for interpretability. We propose SyMPLER (Systems Modeling through Piecewise Linear Evolving Regression), an explainable model for time series forecasting in nonstationary environments based on dynamic piecewise-linear approximations. Unlike other locally linear models, SyMPLER uses generalization bounds from Statistical Learning Theory to automatically determine when to add new local models based on prediction errors, eliminating the need for explicit clustering of the data. Experiments show that SyMPLER can achieve comparable performance to both black-box and existing explainable models while maintaining a human-interpretable structure that reveals insights about the system's behavior. In this sense, our approach conciliates accuracy and interpretability, offering a transparent and adaptive solution for forecasting nonstationary time series.

Multi-response linear models aggregate a set of vanilla linear models by assuming correlated noise across them, which has an unknown covariance structure. To find the coefficient vector, estimators with a joint approximation of the noise covariance are often preferred than the simple linear regression in view of their superior empirical performance, which can be generally solved by alternating-minimization type procedures. Due to the non-convex nature of such joint estimators, the theoretical justification of their efficiency is typically challenging. The existing analyses fail to fully explain the empirical observations due to the assumption of resampling on the alternating procedures, which requires access to fresh samples in each iteration. In this work, we present a resampling-free analysis for the alternating minimization algorithm applied to the multi-response regression. In particular, we focus on the high-dimensional setting of multi-response linear models with structured coefficient parameter, and the statistical error of the parameter can be expressed by the complexity measure, Gaussian width, which is related to the assumed structure. More importantly, to the best of our knowledge, our result reveals for the first time that the alternating minimization with random initialization can achieve the same performance as the well-initialized one when solving this multi-response regression problem. Experimental results support our theoretical developments.

We describe a new software framework for fast training of generalized linear models. Theframework,named Snap Machine Learning (Snap ML), combines recent advances inmachine learning systems andalgorithms inanested manner to reflect the hierarchical architecture of modern computing systems.