This paper investigates approximation-theoretic aspects of the in-context learning capability of the transformers in representing a family of noisy linear dynamical systems. Our first theoretical result establishes an upper bound on the approximation error of multi-layer transformers with respect to an L2-testing loss uniformly defined across tasks. This result demonstrates that transformers with logarithmic depth can achieve error bounds comparable with those of the least-squares estimator. In contrast, our second result establishes a non-diminishing lower bound on the approximation error for a class of single-layer linear transformers, which suggests a depth-separation phenomenon for transformers in the in-context learning of dynamical systems.

We propose a new method for the problem of controlling linear dynamical systems under partial observation and adversarial disturbances. Our new algorithm, Double Spectral Control (DSC), matches the best known regret guarantees while exponentially improving runtime complexity over previous approaches in its dependence on the system's stability margin. Our key innovation is a two-level spectral approximation strategy, leveraging double convolution with a universal basis of spectral filters, enabling efficient and accurate learning of the best linear dynamical controllers.

We study the problem of preconditioning in sequential prediction. From the theoretical lens of linear dynamical systems, we show that convolving the target sequence corresponds to applying a polynomial to the hidden transition matrix. Building on this insight, we propose a universal preconditioning method that convolves the target with coefficients from orthogonal polynomials such as Chebyshev or Legendre. We prove that this approach reduces regret for two distinct prediction algorithms and yields the first ever sublinear and hidden-dimension-independent regret bounds (up to logarithmic factors) that hold for systems with marginally stable and asymmetric transition matrices. Finally, extensive synthetic and realworld experiments show that this simple preconditioning strategy improves the performance of a diverse range of algorithms, including recurrent neural networks, and generalizes to signals beyond linear dynamical systems.

Auto-regressive models have emerged as powerful tools for sequential data, from language to video. Understanding how and why these models learn latent representations remains an open theoretical question. In this work, we demonstrate that when trained by empirical risk minimization on data from partially observed linear dynamical systems, two-layer linear auto-regressive models naturally learn to approximate Kalman filtering. In particular, we show that the learned hidden representation coincides, up to a similarity transformation, with the state estimates produced by the optimal (Kalman) filter, even though the model has no explicit knowledge of the underlying dynamics or state. The result follows from three main insights. First, we establish that the Kalman filter is well approximated by an auto-regressive model with bounded truncation error. Second, we show that despite non-convexity, the two-layer optimization landscape is benign, i.e., all stationary points are either strict saddles or global minima. Finally, as our main contributions, we provide finite-sample guarantees on prediction error, parameter estimation error, and latent state recovery. Numerical simulations support the theoretical results and demonstrate that the latent representations of auto-regressive models recover state estimates.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Latent dynamical systems have been widely used to characterize the dynamics of neural population activity in the brain. However, these models typically ignore the fact that the brain contains multiple cell types. This limits their ability to capture the functional roles of distinct cell classes, and to predict the effects of cell-specific perturbations on neural activity or behavior. To overcome these limitations, we introduce the `cell-type dynamical systems (CTDS) model. This model extends latent linear dynamical systems to contain distinct latent variables for each cell class, with biologically inspired constraints on both dynamics and emissions.

Linear Dynamical Systems (LDSs) are fundamental tools for modeling spatio-temporal data in various disciplines. Though rich in modeling, analyzing LDSs is not free of difficulty, mainly because LDSs do not comply with Euclidean geometry and hence conventional learning techniques can not be applied directly. In this paper, we propose an efficient projected gradient descent method to minimize a general form of a loss function and demonstrate how clustering and sparse coding with LDSs can be solved by the proposed method efficiently. To this end, we first derive a novel canonical form for representing the parameters of an LDS, and then show how gradient-descent updates through the projection on the space of LDSs can be achieved dexterously. In contrast to previous studies, our solution avoids any approximation in LDS modeling or during the optimization process. Extensive experiments reveal the superior performance of the proposed method in terms of the convergence and classification accuracy over state-of-the-art techniques.

We consider maximum likelihood estimation of linear dynamical systems with generalized-linear observation models. Maximum likelihood is typically considered to be hard in this setting since latent states and transition parameters must be inferred jointly. Given that expectation-maximization does not scale and is prone to local minima, moment-matching approaches from the subspace identification literature have become standard, despite known statistical efficiency issues. In this paper, we instead reconsider likelihood maximization and develop an optimization based strategy for recovering the latent states and transition parameters. Key to the approach is a two-view reformulation of maximum likelihood estimation for linear dynamical systems that enables the use of global optimization algorithms for matrix factorization. We show that the proposed estimation strategy outperforms widely-used identification algorithms such as subspace identification methods, both in terms of accuracy and runtime.