On October 18, 2016, the New York Times gave Hillary Clinton a ninety-one-per-cent chance of beating Donald Trump. Five days later, ABC News released a tracking poll showing her ahead of Trump by twelve points. Buoyed by the polls, Democrats--especially Democratic women--approached November 8th with a joyful sense of inevitability. The collective disbelief when Clinton lost was tinged with confusion: How could the pollsters have been so wrong? Now, with Joe Biden leading Trump by double digits in the lead-up to Election Day, according to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey, the question has to be asked: Are voters hoping for a Biden victory about to fall in the same trap?

You'll read these next three paragraphs in my voice. Better get busy reading, or get busy dying. On June 14, America escaped from the primary season. All the wardens found was a "Make America Great Again" hat, a hollowed-out copy of "Hard Choices" and an old rock hammer, damn near worn down to the nub. I remember thinking the nominees would be decided by mid-March.