In an engaging TED talk recorded recently, economist David Autor points out that in the 45 years since the introduction of Automated Teller Machines (ATMs), the number of human bank tellers doubled from a quarter of a million to half a million. He argues that this demonstrates that automation does not cause unemployment – rather, it increases employment. He says ATMs achieved this feat by making it cheaper for banks to open new branches. The number of tellers per branch dropped by a third, but the number of branches increased by 40%. The ATMs replaced a big part of the previous function of the tellers (handing out cash) but the tellers were liberated to do more value-adding tasks, like selling insurance and credit cards.

The short answer is yes. Most economists think the answer is no, because in the past automation hasn't caused lasting unemployment. They call it the Luddite Fallacy because the Luddites, the people who went around smashing up weaving machines during the Industrial Revolution, were wrong about the effect of automation – at least to the extent that they were making a broad economic argument. I think the economists are guilty of the Reverse Luddite Fallacy, which is to say that because automation hasn't caused lasting unemployment in the past it can't do so in the future. It's different this time because in previous rounds of unemployment machines have replaced our muscle jobs while in future rounds they're going to replace our cognitive skills.

The short answer is yes. Most economists think the answer is no, because in the past automation hasn't caused lasting unemployment. They call it the Luddite Fallacy because the Luddites, the people who went around smashing up weaving machines during the Industrial Revolution, were wrong about the effect of automation – at least to the extent that they were making a broad economic argument. I think the economists are guilty of the Reverse Luddite Fallacy, which is to say that because automation hasn't caused lasting unemployment in the past it can't do so in the future. It's different this time because in previous rounds of unemployment machines have replaced our muscle jobs while in future rounds they're going to replace our cognitive skills.