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When Is a Draft Accepted? A Theory of Acceptance in Speculative Decoding

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Speculative decoding accelerates language model inference by using a fast drafter to propose candidate tokens that are then verified by a larger target model. Existing theory largely studies the stochastic, distribution-preserving setting, where the goal is to exactly sample from the target distribution. In contrast, many practical systems use greedy decoding, relaxed acceptance rules, or tree-based candidate sets, where success is governed by local ranking and threshold events rather than exact distributional equality. We develop a theory for these regimes. We identify that many common acceptance criteria have rejection regions that can be characterized as lower level sets of the target distribution. For these, we characterize the exact KL divergence required for rejection yielding exact certificates and sharp margin-based bounds for strict greedy decoding, additive and multiplicative relaxed acceptance, top-(m) relaxed criteria, and entropy-thresholded acceptance. We then extend the framework to greedy tree decoding, deriving exact and margin-only certificates for when the target greedy token remains covered by the drafter's top-(m) candidates. Finally, we evaluate the resulting certificates on Qwen3 models, showing that relaxed and tree-based criteria substantially enlarge the region of certified acceptance, especially on decoding steps with low target model distribution margin. These results complement existing distribution-preserving analyses of speculative decoding by characterizing the deterministic local acceptance events common in practical inference systems.


Certifying Deep Network Risks and Individual Predictions with PAC-Bayes Loss via Localized Priors

Neural Information Processing Systems

As machine learning increasingly relies on large, opaque foundation models powering generative and agentic AI, deploying these systems in safety-critical contexts demands rigorous generalization guarantees beyond training data. PAC-Bayes theory provides principled certificates linking training performance to generalization risk, yet existing approaches remain impractical: simple theoretical priors yield vacuous bounds, while data-dependent priors require costly second-stage training or introduce bias. To bridge this critical gap, we propose a localized PAC-Bayes prior--a structured, computationally efficient prior softly concentrated around parameters favored during standard training. By integrating this localized prior directly into the standard training objective, we deliver practically tight generalization certificates with minimal workflow disruption. Under standard neural tangent kernel assumptions, our bound shrinks as networks widen and datasets grow, becoming negligible in realistic regimes. Empirically, we demonstrate tight generalization certificates on tasks ranging from image classification (MNIST, CIFAR, ImageNet) and NLP fine-tuning (GLUE) to semantic segmentation (Cityscapes), typically within three percentage points of test error at ImageNet scale. Additionally, our approach provides rigorous guarantees for individual predictions, selective rejection of uncertain predictions, adversarial robustness, and accurate calibration--directly addressing key requirements for trustworthy AI deployment.


eae3af0f5868f0a2eceb74208966d55b-Paper-Conference.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

Modern LLMs are increasingly deep, and depth correlates with performance, albeit with diminishing returns. However, do these models use their depth efficiently? Do they compose more features to create higher-order computations that are impossible in shallow models, or do they merely spread the same kinds of computation out over more layers? To address these questions, we analyze the residual stream of the Llama 3.1, Qwen 3, and OLMo 2 family of models. We find: First, comparing the output of the sublayers to the residual stream reveals that layers in the second half contribute much less than those in the first half, with a clear phase transition between the two halves.


Intrinsic Benefits of Categorical Distributional Loss: Uncertainty-aware Regularized Exploration in Reinforcement Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

The remarkable empirical performance of distributional reinforcement learning (RL) has garnered increasing attention to understanding its theoretical advantages over classical RL. By decomposing the categorical distributional loss commonly employed in distributional RL, we find that the potential superiority of distributional RL can be attributed to a derived distribution-matching entropy regularization. This less-studied entropy regularization aims to capture additional knowledge of return distribution beyond only its expectation, contributing to an augmented reward signal in policy optimization. In contrast to the vanilla entropy regularization in MaxEnt RL, which explicitly encourages exploration by promoting diverse actions, the novel entropy regularization derived from categorical distributional loss implicitly updates policies to align the learned policy with (estimated) environmental uncertainty. Finally, extensive experiments verify the significance of this uncertainty-aware regularization from distributional RL on the empirical benefits over classical RL. Our study offers an innovative exploration perspective to explain the intrinsic benefits of distributional learning in RL.


Robust Diffusion Models via Divergence-Induced Weighted Denoising

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We show that replacing the standard MSE denoising loss in diffusion models with a nonlinear transformation induced by an f-divergence yields a simple robust training surrogate that empirically improves performance under data contamination, with small additional computational overhead. The theoretical foundation rests on a local divergence construction: under the Gaussian reverse-kernel structure of DDPM, each per-step likelihood ratio follows a lognormal distribution parameterized by a scalar mismatch, so the conditional f-divergence at each step reduces to a one-dimensional function of the denoising error. Summing these local divergences yields a training objective that unifies diffusion training as divergence induced weighted denoising, where the derivative of the induced divergence acts as a residual-space influence weight that controls the contribution of each sample. Bounded-influence divergences (Hellinger, negative exponential) suppress large error samples, with Hellinger yielding an explicit exponential weight, connecting the framework to robust M-estimation. Empirically, on CIFAR-10 under 30% contamination, NED reduces FID from 93.0 (KL) to 77.5, while also outperforming standard robust losses such as Huber and clipped MSE.


Zero-shot World Models via Search in Memory

Neural Information Processing Systems

World Models have vastly permeated the field of Reinforcement Learning. Their ability to model the transition dynamics of an environment have greatly improved sample efficiency in online RL. Among them, the most notorious example is Dreamer, a model that learns to act in a diverse set of image-based environments.


Better Estimation of the Kullback-Leibler Divergence Between Language Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Estimating the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between language models has many applications, e.g., reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), interpretability, and knowledge distillation. However, computing the exact KL divergence between two arbitrary language models is intractable. Thus, practitioners often resort to sampling-based estimators. While it is easy to fashion a simple Monte Carlo (MC) estimator that provides an unbiased estimate of the KL divergence between language models, this estimator notoriously suffers from high variance and can even result in a negative estimate of the KL divergence, a non-negative quantity. In this paper, we introduce a Rao-Blackwellized estimator that is unbiased and provably has variance less than or equal to that of the standard Monte Carlo estimator. In an empirical study on sentiment-controlled fine-tuning, we show that our estimator provides more stable KL estimates and reduces variance substantially. Additionally, we derive an analogous Rao-Blackwellized estimator of the gradient of the KL divergence, which leads to more stable training and produces models that more frequently appear on the Pareto frontier of reward vs. KL compared to the ones trained with the MC estimator of the gradient.


93fce71def4e3cf418918805455d436f-Paper-Conference.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

When and why representations learned by different deep neural networks are similar is an active research topic. We choose to address these questions from the perspective of identifiability theory, which suggests that a measure of representational similarity should be invariant to transformations that leave the model distribution unchanged. Focusing on a model family which includes several popular pre-training approaches, e.g., autoregressive language models, we explore when models which generate distributions that are close have similar representations. We prove that a small Kullback-Leibler divergence between the model distributions does not guarantee that the corresponding representations are similar. This has the important corollary that models with near-maximum data likelihood can still learn dissimilar representations--a phenomenon mirrored in our experiments with models trained on CIFAR-10. We then define a distributional distance for which closeness implies representational similarity, and in synthetic experiments, we find that wider networks learn distributions which are closer with respect to our distance and have more similar representations. Our results thus clarify the link between closeness in distribution and representational similarity.


Mitigating Reward Over-optimization in Direct Alignment Algorithms with Importance Sampling

Neural Information Processing Systems

Direct Alignment Algorithms (DAAs) such as Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) have emerged as alternatives to the standard Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human values. However, these methods are more susceptible to over-optimization, in which the model drifts away from the reference policy, leading to degraded performance as training progresses. This paper proposes a novel importance-sampling approach to mitigate the over-optimization problem of offline DAAs. This approach, called (ISDAAs), multiplies the DAA objective with an importance ratio that accounts for the reference policy distribution. IS-DAAs additionally avoid the high variance issue associated with importance sampling by clipping the importance ratio to a maximum value. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that IS-DAAs can effectively mitigate over-optimization, especially under low regularization strength, and achieve better performance than other methods designed to address this problem.


Constrained Sampling for Language Models Should Be Easy: An MCMCPerspective

Neural Information Processing Systems

Constrained decoding enables Language Models (LMs) to produce samples that provably satisfy hard constraints. However, existing constrained-decoding approaches often distort the underlying model distribution, a limitation that is especially problematic in applications like program fuzzing, where one wants to generate diverse and valid program inputs for testing purposes. We propose a new constrained sampling framework based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) that simultaneously satisfies three core desiderata: constraint satisfying (every sample satisfies the constraint), monotonically converging (the sampling process converges to the true conditional distribution), and efficient (high-quality samples emerge in few steps). Our method constructs a proposal distribution over valid outputs and applies a Metropolis-Hastings acceptance criterion based on the LM's likelihood, ensuring principled and efficient exploration of the constrained space. Empirically, our sampler outperforms existing methods on both synthetic benchmarks and real-world program fuzzing tasks 1.