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Trump's US Fed nominee Warsh vows independence, says he's no 'sock puppet'

Al Jazeera

Why did Trump fire Pam Bondi? Trump's US Fed nominee Warsh vows independence, says he's no'sock puppet' Kevin Warsh, United States President Donald Trump's pick to lead the Federal Reserve, has addressed concerns about his independence pending his appointment to the bank amid fears that Trump could sway his decisions on monetary policy. On Tuesday, Warsh -- who served on the central bank's Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 -- faced waves of criticism during a confirmation hearing of the Senate Banking Committee where Democrats voiced concerns about the Fed's independence should he be appointed to lead the organisation. "I do not believe the operational independence of monetary policy is particularly threatened when elected officials -- presidents, senators, or members of the House -- state their views on interest rates," Warsh said. "Monetary policy independence is essential. Monetary policymakers must act in the nation's interest . . . Warsh, 56, also called for "regime change" at the US central bank, including a new approach for controlling inflation and a communications overhaul that may discourage his colleagues from saying too much about the direction of monetary policy. Warsh blamed the central bank for an inflation surge after it slashed interest rates to nearly zero in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, a move that continues to hurt US households. Concerned by the implications of artificial intelligence for jobs - expected to increase productivity - and prices, he said he would move quickly to see if new data tools could provide better insight on inflation, and would also discourage policymakers from saying too much about where interest rates might be heading. "What the Fed needs are reforms to its frameworks and reforms to its communications," the former Fed governor said. "Too many Fed officials opine about where interest rates should be That is quite unhelpful." Warsh has also long been an advocate for shrinking the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet. In the Tuesday hearing, he said any such plans would take time and must be publicly discussed well in advance. Jai Kedia, a research fellow at the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the libertarian Cato Institute, told Al Jazeera that there were many "encouraging" signs in Warsh's candidacy. "Warsh is presenting himself as a regime change candidate at a time when the Fed needs serious reform," Kedia noted. "Particularly encouraging was his understanding of the negative effects of QE and his focus on reducing the balance sheet.



Trump advisor rips Powell for 'out of control' interest rates as feud over Warsh nomination heats up

FOX News

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Trump faces extraordinary moment in spat with Fed chair

BBC News

It is extraordinary enough to see the world's top central banker make an unscheduled video statement on social media. My first thought upon seeing the post from the Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell was: Is this an AI deepfake? That sense did not go away as I listened to what were indeed the real words of the world's most important financial official. The background here is a long-running spat between President Trump and the man responsible for setting interest rates in the US and indirectly much of the rest of the world. In theory, this has officially been about the cost of a renovation project at the Federal Reserve, the US equivalent of the Bank of England.


AI likely to displace jobs, says Bank of England governor

BBC News

The widespread adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is likely to displace people from jobs in a similar way seen during the Industrial Revolution, the governor of the Bank of England has said. Andrew Bailey said the UK needed to have the training, education, [and] skills in place so workers could shift into jobs that use AI. He told the BBC Radio 4's Today programme people looking for a job would find securing employment a lot easier if they had such skills. However, he warned that there was an issue with younger, inexperienced professionals finding it difficult to secure entry-level roles due to AI. We do have to think about, what is it doing to the pipeline of people?


Learning to Hedge Swaptions

Ahmadi, Zaniar, Godin, Frédéric

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper investigates the deep hedging framework, based on reinforcement learning (RL), for the dynamic hedging of swaptions, contrasting its performance with traditional sensitivity-based rho-hedging. We design agents under three distinct objective functions (mean squared error, downside risk, and Conditional Value-at-Risk) to capture alternative risk preferences and evaluate how these objectives shape hedging styles. Relying on a three-factor arbitrage-free dynamic Nelson-Siegel model for our simulation experiments, our findings show that near-optimal hedging effectiveness is achieved when using two swaps as hedging instruments. Deep hedging strategies dynamically adapt the hedging portfolio's exposure to risk factors across states of the market. In our experiments, their out-performance over rho-hedging strategies persists even in the presence some of model misspecification. These results highlight RL's potential to deliver more efficient and resilient swaption hedging strategies.


UK share values 'most stretched' since 2008, Bank warns

BBC News

UK share values'most stretched' since 2008, Bank warns The Bank of England has warned of a sharp correction in the value of major tech companies with growing fears of an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. It said share prices in the UK are close to the most stretched they have been since the 2008 global financial crisis, while equity valuations in the US are reminiscent of those before the dotcom bubble burst. The central bank's financial stability report warned valuations are particularly stretched for companies focused on AI. It said the growth of the sector in the next five years would be fuelled by trillions of dollars of debt, raising financial stability risks if the value of the companies falls. The Bank of England cited industry figures forecasting spending on AI infrastructure could top $5tn (£3.8tn).


Solving Heterogeneous Agent Models with Physics-informed Neural Networks

Grzeskiewicz, Marta

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding household behaviour is essential for modelling macroeconomic dynamics and designing effective policy. While heterogeneous agent models offer a more realistic alternative to representative agent frameworks, their implementation poses significant computational challenges, particularly in continuous time. The Aiyagari-Bewley-Huggett (ABH) framework, recast as a system of partial differential equations, typically relies on grid-based solvers that suffer from the curse of dimensionality, high computational cost, and numerical inaccuracies. This paper introduces the ABH-PINN solver, an approach based on Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), which embeds the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman and Kolmogorov Forward equations directly into the neural network training objective. By replacing grid-based approximation with mesh-free, differentiable function learning, the ABH-PINN solver benefits from the advantages of PINNs of improved scalability, smoother solutions, and computational efficiency. Preliminary results show that the PINN-based approach is able to obtain economically valid results matching the established finite-difference solvers.


HMRC to review suspending 23,500 child benefit payments

BBC News

The UK's tax body is reviewing its decisions to strip child benefit from about 23,500 claimants after it used travel data to conclude they had left the country permanently. Normally the benefit runs out after eight weeks living outside the UK, but many people affected complained that HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) had stopped their money after they went on holiday for just a short time. The move came after MPs on the Treasury Select Committee demanded answers from the tax authority. HMRC has apologised for any errors and says anyone who thinks their benefits have been stopped incorrectly should contact them. In September, the government began a crackdown on child benefit fraud which it believes could save £350m over five years.


The AI job cuts are here - or are they?

BBC News

The AI job cuts are here - or are they? Amazon's move this week to slash thousands of corporate jobs fed into a longstanding anxiety: that Artificial Intelligence is starting to replace workers. The tech giant joined a growing list of companies in the US that have pointed to AI technology as a reason behind layoffs. But some question whether AI is fully to blame - and have voiced scepticism that recent high-profile layoffs are a telling sign of the technology's effect on employment. Chegg, the online education firm, cited the new realities of AI as it announced a 45% reduction in workforce on Monday.