Accurate and interpretable car-following models are essential for traffic simulation and autonomous vehicle development. However, classical models like the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM) are fundamentally limited by their parsimonious and single-regime structure. They fail to capture the multi-modal nature of human driving, where a single driving state (e.g., speed, relative speed, and gap) can elicit many different driver actions. This forces the model to average across distinct behaviors, reducing its fidelity and making its parameters difficult to interpret. To overcome this, we introduce a regime-switching framework that allows driving behavior to be governed by different IDM parameter sets, each corresponding to an interpretable behavioral mode. This design enables the model to dynamically switch between interpretable behavioral modes, rather than averaging across diverse driving contexts. We instantiate the framework using a Factorial Hidden Markov Model with IDM dynamics (FHMM-IDM), which explicitly separates intrinsic driving regimes (e.g., aggressive acceleration, steady-state following) from external traffic scenarios (e.g., free-flow, congestion, stop-and-go) through two independent latent Markov processes. Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to jointly estimate the regime-specific parameters, transition dynamics, and latent state trajectories. Experiments on the HighD dataset demonstrate that FHMM-IDM uncovers interpretable structure in human driving, effectively disentangling internal driver actions from contextual traffic conditions and revealing dynamic regime-switching patterns. This framework provides a tractable and principled solution to modeling context-dependent driving behavior under uncertainty, offering improvements in the fidelity of traffic simulations, the efficacy of safety analyses, and the development of more human-centric ADAS.

We present a parallelized differentiable traffic simulator based on the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM), a car-following framework that incorporates driver behavior as key variables. Our simulator efficiently models vehicle motion, generating trajectories that can be supervised to fit real-world data. By leveraging its differentiable nature, IDM parameters are optimized using gradient-based methods. With the capability to simulate up to 2 million vehicles in real time, the system is scalable for large-scale trajectory optimization. We show that we can use the simulator to filter noise in the input trajectories (trajectory filtering), reconstruct dense trajectories from sparse ones (trajectory reconstruction), and predict future trajectories (trajectory prediction), with all generated trajectories adhering to physical laws. We validate our simulator and algorithm on several datasets including NGSIM and Waymo Open Dataset.

Building simulation environments for developing and testing autonomous vehicles necessitates that the simulators accurately model the statistical realism of the real-world environment, including the interaction with other vehicles driven by human drivers. To address this requirement, an accurate human behavior model is essential to incorporate the diversity and consistency of human driving behavior. We propose a mathematical framework for designing a data-driven simulation model that simulates human driving behavior more realistically than the currently used physics-based simulation models. Experiments conducted using the NGSIM dataset validate our hypothesis regarding the necessity of considering the complexity, diversity, and consistency of human driving behavior when aiming to develop realistic simulators.

Accurately modeling the behavior of traffic participants is essential for safely and efficiently navigating an autonomous vehicle through heavy traffic. We propose a method, based on the intelligent driver model, that allows us to accurately model individual driver behaviors from only a small number of frames using easily observable features. On average, this method makes prediction errors that have less than 1 meter difference from an oracle with full-information when analyzed over a 10-second horizon of highway driving. We then validate the efficiency of our method through extensive analysis against a competitive data-driven method such as Reinforcement Learning that may be of independent interest.

Car-following (CF) modeling, an essential component in simulating human CF behaviors, has attracted increasing research interest in the past decades. This paper pushes the state of the art by proposing a novel generative hybrid CF model, which achieves high accuracy in characterizing dynamic human CF behaviors and is able to generate realistic human CF behaviors for any given observed or even unobserved driving style. Specifically, the ability of accurately capturing human CF behaviors is ensured by designing and calibrating an Intelligent Driver Model (IDM) with time-varying parameters. The reason behind is that such time-varying parameters can express both the inter-driver heterogeneity, i.e., diverse driving styles of different drivers, and the intra-driver heterogeneity, i.e., changing driving styles of the same driver. The ability of generating realistic human CF behaviors of any given observed driving style is achieved by applying a neural process (NP) based model. The ability of inferring CF behaviors of unobserved driving styles is supported by exploring the relationship between the calibrated time-varying IDM parameters and an intermediate variable of NP. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed models, we conduct extensive experiments and comparisons, including CF model parameter calibration, CF behavior prediction, and trajectory simulation for different driving styles.