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 hydrogen production


Machine Learning Risk Intelligence for Green Hydrogen Investment: Insights for Duqm R3 Auction

Nwafor, Obumneme, Hooti, Mohammed Abdul Majeed Al

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As green hydrogen emerges as a major component of global decarbonisation, Oman has positioned itself strategically through national auctions and international partnerships. Following two successful green hydrogen project rounds, the country launched its third auction (R3) in the Duqm region. While this area exhibits relative geospatial homogeneity, it is still vulnerable to environmental fluctuations that pose inherent risks to productivity. Despite growing global investment in green hydrogen, operational data remains scarce, with major projects like Saudi Arabia's NEOM facility not expected to commence production until 2026, and Oman's ACME Duqm project scheduled for 2028. This absence of historical maintenance and performance data from large-scale hydrogen facilities in desert environments creates a major knowledge gap for accurate risk assessment for infrastructure planning and auction decisions. Given this data void, environmental conditions emerge as accessible and reliable proxy for predicting infrastructure maintenance pressures, because harsh desert conditions such as dust storms, extreme temperatures, and humidity fluctuations are well-documented drivers of equipment degradation in renewable energy systems. To address this challenge, this paper proposes an Artificial Intelligence decision support system that leverages publicly available meteorological data to develop a predictive Maintenance Pressure Index (MPI), which predicts risk levels and future maintenance demands on hydrogen infrastructure. This tool strengthens regulatory foresight and operational decision-making by enabling temporal benchmarking to assess and validate performance claims over time. It can be used to incorporate temporal risk intelligence into auction evaluation criteria despite the absence of historical operational benchmarks.


Artificial Intelligence for Green Hydrogen Yield Prediction and Site Suitability using SHAP-Based Composite Index: Focus on Oman

Nwafor, Obumneme Zimuzor, Hooti, Mohammed Abdul Majeed Al

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As nations seek sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels, green hydrogen has emerged as a promising strategic pathway toward decarbonisation, particularly in solar-rich arid regions. However, identifying optimal locations for hydrogen production requires the integration of complex environmental, atmospheric, and infrastructural factors, often compounded by limited availability of direct hydrogen yield data. This study presents a novel Artificial Intelligence (AI) framework for computing green hydrogen yield and site suitability index using mean absolute SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values. This framework consists of a multi-stage pipeline of unsupervised multi-variable clustering, supervised machine learning classifier and SHAP algorithm. The pipeline trains on an integrated meteorological, topographic and temporal dataset and the results revealed distinct spatial patterns of suitability and relative influence of the variables. With model predictive accuracy of 98%, the result also showed that water proximity, elevation and seasonal variation are the most influential factors determining green hydrogen site suitability in Oman with mean absolute shap values of 2.470891, 2.376296 and 1.273216 respectively. Given limited or absence of ground-truth yield data in many countries that have green hydrogen prospects and ambitions, this study offers an objective and reproducible alternative to subjective expert weightings, thus allowing the data to speak for itself and potentially discover novel latent groupings without pre-imposed assumptions. This study offers industry stakeholders and policymakers a replicable and scalable tool for green hydrogen infrastructure planning and other decision making in data-scarce regions.


Multi-agent based modeling for investigating excess heat utilization from electrolyzer production to district heating network

Christensen, Kristoffer, Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard, Ma, Zheng Grace

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Power-to-Hydrogen is crucial for the renewable energy transition, yet existing literature lacks business models for the significant excess heat it generates. This study addresses this by evaluating three models for selling electrolyzer-generated heat to district heating grids: constant, flexible, and renewable-source hydrogen production, with and without heat sales. Using agent-based modeling and multi-criteria decision-making methods (VIKOR, TOPSIS, PROMETHEE), it finds that selling excess heat can cut hydrogen production costs by 5.6%. The optimal model operates flexibly with electricity spot prices, includes heat sales, and maintains a hydrogen price of 3.3 EUR/kg. Environmentally, hydrogen production from grid electricity could emit up to 13,783.8 tons of CO2 over four years from 2023. The best economic and environmental model uses renewable sources and sells heat at 3.5 EUR/kg


Dynamic fault detection and diagnosis of industrial alkaline water electrolyzer process with variational Bayesian dictionary learning

Zhang, Qi, Xie, Lei, Xu, Weihua, Su, Hongye

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Alkaline Water Electrolysis (AWE) is one of the simplest green hydrogen production method using renewable energy. AWE system typically yields process variables that are serially correlated and contaminated by measurement uncertainty. A novel robust dynamic variational Bayesian dictionary learning (RDVDL) monitoring approach is proposed to improve the reliability and safety of AWE operation. RDVDL employs a sparse Bayesian dictionary learning to preserve the dynamic mechanism information of AWE process which allows the easy interpretation of fault detection results. To improve the robustness to measurement uncertainty, a low-rank vector autoregressive (VAR) method is derived to reliably extract the serial correlation from process variables. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated with an industrial hydrogen production process, and RDVDL can efficiently detect and diagnose critical AWE faults.


Cost Optimized Scheduling in Modular Electrolysis Plants

Henkel, Vincent, Kilthau, Maximilian, Gehlhoff, Felix, Wagner, Lukas, Fay, Alexander

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In response to the global shift towards renewable energy resources, the production of green hydrogen through electrolysis is emerging as a promising solution. Modular electrolysis plants, designed for flexibility and scalability, offer a dynamic response to the increasing demand for hydrogen while accommodating the fluctuations inherent in renewable energy sources. However, optimizing their operation is challenging, especially when a large number of electrolysis modules needs to be coordinated, each with potentially different characteristics. To address these challenges, this paper presents a decentralized scheduling model to optimize the operation of modular electrolysis plants using the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers. The model aims to balance hydrogen production with fluctuating demand, to minimize the marginal Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (mLCOH), and to ensure adaptability to operational disturbances. A case study validates the accuracy of the model in calculating mLCOH values under nominal load conditions and demonstrates its responsiveness to dynamic changes, such as electrolyzer module malfunctions and scale-up scenarios.


HypBO: Expert-Guided Chemist-in-the-Loop Bayesian Search for New Materials

Cisse, Abdoulatif, Evangelopoulos, Xenophon, Carruthers, Sam, Gusev, Vladimir V., Cooper, Andrew I.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Robotics and automation offer massive accelerations for solving intractable, multivariate scientific problems such as materials discovery, but the available search spaces can be dauntingly large. Bayesian optimization (BO) has emerged as a popular sample-efficient optimization engine, thriving in tasks where no analytic form of the target function/property is known. Here we exploit expert human knowledge in the form of hypotheses to direct Bayesian searches more quickly to promising regions of chemical space. Previous methods have used underlying distributions derived from existing experimental measurements, which is unfeasible for new, unexplored scientific tasks. Also, such distributions cannot capture intricate hypotheses. Our proposed method, which we call HypBO, uses expert human hypotheses to generate an improved seed of samples. Unpromising seeds are automatically discounted, while promising seeds are used to augment the surrogate model data, thus achieving better-informed sampling. This process continues in a global versus local search fashion, organized in a bilevel optimization framework. We validate the performance of our method on a range of synthetic functions and demonstrate its practical utility on a real chemical design task where the use of expert hypotheses accelerates the search performance significantly.


Optimal Scheduling of Electrolyzer in Power Market with Dynamic Prices

Luo, Yusheng, Xian, Min, Mohanpurkar, Manish, Bhattarai, Bishnu P., Medam, Anudeep, Kadavil, Rahul, Hovsapian, Rob

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Optimal scheduling of hydrogen production in dynamic pricing power market can maximize the profit of hydrogen producer; however, it highly depends on the accurate forecast of hydrogen consumption. In this paper, we propose a deep leaning based forecasting approach for predicting hydrogen consumption of fuel cell vehicles in future taxi industry. The cost of hydrogen production is minimized by utilizing the proposed forecasting tool to reduce the hydrogen produced during high cost on-peak hours and guide hydrogen producer to store sufficient hydrogen during low cost off-peak hours.