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Map&Make: Schema Guided Text to Table Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transforming dense, detailed, unstructured text into an interpretable and summarised table, also colloquially known as Text-to-Table generation, is an essential task for information retrieval. Current methods, however, miss out on how and what complex information to extract; they also lack the ability to infer data from the text. In this paper, we introduce a versatile approach, Map&Make, which "dissects" text into propositional atomic statements. This facilitates granular decomposition to extract the latent schema. The schema is then used to populate the tables that capture the qualitative nuances and the quantitative facts in the original text. Our approach is tested against two challenging datasets, Rotowire, renowned for its complex and multi-table schema, and Livesum, which demands numerical aggregation. By carefully identifying and correcting hallucination errors in Rotowire, we aim to achieve a cleaner and more reliable benchmark. We evaluate our method rigorously on a comprehensive suite of comparative and referenceless metrics. Our findings demonstrate significant improvement results across both datasets with better interpretability in Text-to-Table generation. Moreover, through detailed ablation studies and analyses, we investigate the factors contributing to superior performance and validate the practicality of our framework in structured summarization tasks.


Revisiting PlayeRank

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this article we revise the football's performance score called PlayeRank, designed and evaluated by Pappalardo et al.\ in 2019. First, we analyze the weights extracted from the Linear Support Vector Machine (SVM) that solves the classification problem of "which set of events has a higher impact on the chances of winning a match". Here, we notice that the previously published results include the Goal-Scored event during the training phase, which produces inconsistencies. We fix these inconsistencies, and show new weights capable of solving the same problem. Following the intuition that the best team should always win a match, we define the team's quality as the average number of players involved in the game. We show that, using the original PlayeRank, in 94.13\% of the matches either the superior team beats the inferior team or the teams end tied if the scores are similar. Finally, we present a way to use PlayeRank in an online fashion using modified free analysis tools. Calculating this modified version of PlayeRank, we performed an online analysis of a real football match every five minutes of game. Here, we evaluate the usefulness of that information with experts and managers, and conclude that the obtained data indeed provides useful information that was not previously available to the manager during the match.


Predicting soccer matches with complex networks and machine learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Soccer attracts the attention of many researchers and professionals in the sports industry. Therefore, the incorporation of science into the sport is constantly growing, with increasing investments in performance analysis and sports prediction industries. This study aims to (i) highlight the use of complex networks as an alternative tool for predicting soccer match outcomes, and (ii) show how the combination of structural analysis of passing networks with match statistical data can provide deeper insights into the game patterns and strategies used by teams. In order to do so, complex network metrics and match statistics were used to build machine learning models that predict the wins and losses of soccer teams in different leagues. The results showed that models based on passing networks were as effective as ``traditional'' models, which use general match statistics. Another finding was that by combining both approaches, more accurate models were obtained than when they were used separately, demonstrating that the fusion of such approaches can offer a deeper understanding of game patterns, allowing the comprehension of tactics employed by teams relationships between players, their positions, and interactions during matches. It is worth mentioning that both network metrics and match statistics were important and impactful for the mixed model. Furthermore, the use of networks with a lower granularity of temporal evolution (such as creating a network for each half of the match) performed better than a single network for the entire game.


Text-Tuple-Table: Towards Information Integration in Text-to-Table Generation via Global Tuple Extraction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The task of condensing large chunks of textual information into concise and structured tables has gained attention recently due to the emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) and their potential benefit for downstream tasks, such as text summarization and text mining. Previous approaches often generate tables that directly replicate information from the text, limiting their applicability in broader contexts, as text-to-table generation in real-life scenarios necessitates information extraction, reasoning, and integration. However, there is a lack of both datasets and methodologies towards this task. In this paper, we introduce LiveSum, a new benchmark dataset created for generating summary tables of competitions based on real-time commentary texts. We evaluate the performances of state-of-the-art LLMs on this task in both fine-tuning and zero-shot settings, and additionally propose a novel pipeline called $T^3$(Text-Tuple-Table) to improve their performances. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that LLMs still struggle with this task even after fine-tuning, while our approach can offer substantial performance gains without explicit training. Further analyses demonstrate that our method exhibits strong generalization abilities, surpassing previous approaches on several other text-to-table datasets. Our code and data can be found at https://github.com/HKUST-KnowComp/LiveSum-TTT.


Prediction of Handball Matches with Statistically Enhanced Learning via Estimated Team Strengths

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a Statistically Enhanced Learning (aka. SEL) model to predict handball games. Our Machine Learning model augmented with SEL features outperforms state-of-the-art models with an accuracy beyond 80%. In this work, we show how we construct the data set to train Machine Learning models on past female club matches. We then compare different models and evaluate them to assess their performance capabilities. Finally, explainability methods allow us to change the scope of our tool from a purely predictive solution to a highly insightful analytical tool. This can become a valuable asset for handball teams' coaches providing valuable statistical and predictive insights to prepare future competitions.


Professional Basketball Player Behavior Synthesis via Planning with Diffusion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Dynamically planning in multi-agent systems has been explored to improve decision-making in various domains. Professional basketball serves as a compelling example of a dynamic spatio-temporal game, encompassing both concealed strategic policies and decision-making. However, processing the diverse on-court signals and navigating the vast space of potential actions and outcomes makes it difficult for existing approaches to swiftly identify optimal strategies in response to evolving circumstances. In this study, we first formulate the sequential decision-making process as a conditional trajectory generation process. We further introduce PLAYBEST (PLAYer BEhavior SynThesis), a method for enhancing player decision-making. We extend the state-of-the-art generative model, diffusion probabilistic model, to learn challenging multi-agent environmental dynamics from historical National Basketball Association (NBA) player motion tracking data. To incorporate data-driven strategies, an auxiliary value function is trained using the play-by-play data with corresponding rewards acting as the plan guidance. To accomplish reward-guided trajectory generation, conditional sampling is introduced to condition the diffusion model on the value function and conduct classifier-guided sampling. We validate the effectiveness of PLAYBEST via comprehensive simulation studies from real-world data, contrasting the generated trajectories and play strategies with those employed by professional basketball teams. Our results reveal that the model excels at generating high-quality basketball trajectories that yield efficient plays, surpassing conventional planning techniques in terms of adaptability, flexibility, and overall performance. Moreover, the synthesized play strategies exhibit a remarkable alignment with professional tactics, highlighting the model's capacity to capture the intricate dynamics of basketball games.


How to Use Python and Machine Learning to Predict Football Match Winners - KDnuggets

#artificialintelligence

Python is one of the most versatile programming languages out there. Over the years, Python programming has grown to become the most popular programming language for building various machine learning applications. A key element of such applications is often to carry out some kind of prediction based on the data available for processing. Predictions have the facet of uncertainty that is tackled very easily using Python programming. Here, in this article, we will try to tackle one such problem.


Betting the system: Using lineups to predict football scores

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper aims to reduce randomness in football by analysing the role of lineups in final scores using machine learning prediction models we have developed. Football clubs invest millions of dollars on lineups and knowing how individual statistics translate to better outcomes can optimise investments. Moreover, sports betting is growing exponentially and being able to predict the future is profitable and desirable. We use machine learning models and historical player data from English Premier League (2020-2022) to predict scores and to understand how individual performance can improve the outcome of a match. We compared different prediction techniques to maximise the possibility of finding useful models. We created heuristic and machine learning models predicting football scores to compare different techniques. We used different sets of features and shown goalkeepers stats are more important than attackers stats to predict goals scored. We applied a broad evaluation process to assess the efficacy of the models in real world applications. We managed to predict correctly all relegated teams after forecast 100 consecutive matches. We show that Support Vector Regression outperformed other techniques predicting final scores and that lineups do not improve predictions. Finally, our model was profitable (42% return) when emulating a betting system using real world odds data.


Predicting Football Match Outcomes with eXplainable Machine Learning and the Kelly Index

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work, a machine learning approach is developed for predicting the outcomes of football matches. The novelty of this research lies in the utilisation of the Kelly Index to first classify matches into categories where each one denotes the different levels of predictive difficulty. Classification models using a wide suite of algorithms were developed for each category of matches in order to determine the efficacy of the approach. In conjunction to this, a set of previously unexplored features were engineering including Elo-based variables. The dataset originated from the Premier League match data covering the 2019-2021 seasons. The findings indicate that the process of decomposing the predictive problem into sub-tasks was effective and produced competitive results with prior works, while the ensemble-based methods were the most effective. The paper also devised an investment strategy in order to evaluate its effectiveness by benchmarking against bookmaker odds. An approach was developed that minimises risk by combining the Kelly Index with the predefined confidence thresholds of the predictive models. The experiments found that the proposed strategy can return a profit when following a conservative approach that focuses primarily on easy-to-predict matches where the predictive models display a high confidence level.


Cracking the Black Box: Distilling Deep Sports Analytics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper addresses the trade-off between Accuracy and Transparency for deep learning applied to sports analytics. Neural nets achieve great predictive accuracy through deep learning, and are popular in sports analytics. But it is hard to interpret a neural net model and harder still to extract actionable insights from the knowledge implicit in it. Therefore, we built a simple and transparent model that mimics the output of the original deep learning model and represents the learned knowledge in an explicit interpretable way. Our mimic model is a linear model tree, which combines a collection of linear models with a regression-tree structure. The tree version of a neural network achieves high fidelity, explains itself, and produces insights for expert stakeholders such as athletes and coaches. We propose and compare several scalable model tree learning heuristics to address the computational challenge from datasets with millions of data points.