hamming distance
Estimating Staged Event Tree Models via Hierarchical Clustering on the Simplex
Shoaib, Muhammad, Riccomagno, Eva, Leonelli, Manuele, Varando, Gherardo
Staged tree models enhance Bayesian networks by incorporating context-specific dependencies through a stage-based structure. In this study, we present a new framework for estimating staged trees using hierarchical clustering on the probability simplex, utilizing simplex basesd divergences. We conduct a thorough evaluation of several distance and divergence metrics including Total Variation, Hellinger, Fisher, and Kaniadakis; alongside various linkage methods such as Ward.D2, average, complete, and McQuitty. We conducted the simulation experiments that reveals Total Variation, especially when combined with Ward.D2 linkage, consistently produces staged trees with better model fit, structure recovery, and computational efficiency. We assess performance by utilizing relative Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and Hamming distance. Our findings indicate that although Backward Hill Climbing (BHC) delivers competitive outcomes, it incurs a significantly higher computational cost. On the other, Total Variation divergence with Ward.D2 linkage, achieves similar performance while providing significantly better computational efficiency, making it a more viable option for large-scale or time sensitive tasks.
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- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Uncertainty > Bayesian Inference (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Statistical Learning > Clustering (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Learning Graphical Models > Directed Networks > Bayesian Learning (1.00)
HOGWILD!-Gibbs can be PanAccurate
Asynchronous Gibbs sampling has been recently shown to be fast-mixing and an accurate method for estimating probabilities of events on a small number of variables of a graphical model satisfying Dobrushin's condition~\cite{DeSaOR16}. We investigate whether it can be used to accurately estimate expectations of functions of {\em all the variables} of the model. Under the same condition, we show that the synchronous (sequential) and asynchronous Gibbs samplers can be coupled so that the expected Hamming distance between their (multivariate) samples remains bounded by $O(\tau \log n),$ where $n$ is the number of variables in the graphical model, and $\tau$ is a measure of the asynchronicity. A similar bound holds for any constant power of the Hamming distance. Hence, the expectation of any function that is Lipschitz with respect to a power of the Hamming distance, can be estimated with a bias that grows logarithmically in $n$. Going beyond Lipschitz functions, we consider the bias arising from asynchronicity in estimating the expectation of polynomial functions of all variables in the model.
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