In many structured prediction problems, complex relationships between variables are compactly defined using graphical structures. The most prevalent graphical prediction methods---probabilistic graphical models and large margin methods---have their own distinct strengths but also possess significant drawbacks. Conditional random fields (CRFs) are Fisher consistent, but they do not permit integration of customized loss metrics into their learning process. Large-margin models, such as structured support vector machines (SSVMs), have the flexibility to incorporate customized loss metrics, but lack Fisher consistency guarantees. We present adversarial graphical models (AGM), a distributionally robust approach for constructing a predictor that performs robustly for a class of data distributions defined using a graphical structure. Our approach enjoys both the flexibility of incorporating customized loss metrics into its design as well as the statistical guarantee of Fisher consistency. We present exact learning and prediction algorithms for AGM with time complexity similar to existing graphical models and show the practical benefits of our approach with experiments.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

The challenge of learning the causal structure underlying a certain phenomenon is undertaken by connecting the set of conditional independences (CIs) readable from the observational data, on the one side, with the set of corresponding constraints implied over the graphical structure, on the other, which are tied through a graphical criterion known as d-separation (Pearl, 1988). In this paper, we investigate the more general scenario where multiple observational and experimental distributions are available. We start with the simple observation that the invariances given by CIs/d-separation are just one special type of a broader set of constraints, which follow from the careful comparison of the different distributions available. Remarkably, these new constraints are intrinsically connected with do-calculus (Pearl, 1995) in the context of soft-interventions. We introduce a novel notion of interventional equivalence class of causal graphs with latent variables based on these invariances, which associates each graphical structure with a set of interventional distributions that respect the do-calculus rules. Given a collection of distributions, two causal graphs are called interventionally equivalent if they are associated with the same family of interventional distributions, where the elements of the family are indistinguishable using the invariances obtained from a direct application of the calculus rules. We introduce a graphical representation that can be used to determine if two causal graphs are interventionally equivalent. We provide a formal graphical characterization of this equivalence. Finally, we extend the FCI algorithm, which was originally designed to operate based on CIs, to combine observational and interventional datasets, including new orientation rules particular to this setting.

In this work, we present an additive model for space-time data that splits the data into a temporally correlated component and a spatially correlated component.

In many structured prediction problems, complex relationships between variables are compactly defined using graphical structures. The most prevalent graphical prediction methods---probabilistic graphical models and large margin methods---have their own distinct strengths but also possess significant drawbacks. Conditional random fields (CRFs) are Fisher consistent, but they do not permit integration of customized loss metrics into their learning process. Large-margin models, such as structured support vector machines (SSVMs), have the flexibility to incorporate customized loss metrics, but lack Fisher consistency guarantees. We present adversarial graphical models (AGM), a distributionally robust approach for constructing a predictor that performs robustly for a class of data distributions defined using a graphical structure. Our approach enjoys both the flexibility of incorporating customized loss metrics into its design as well as the statistical guarantee of Fisher consistency. We present exact learning and prediction algorithms for AGM with time complexity similar to existing graphical models and show the practical benefits of our approach with experiments.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

How do these compare to the regret bounds of the paper at hand? - After the definition of regret, it is noted that the latter is random due to the randomness of M* (and the randomness of the algorithms and observations). It is not clear to me why M* is supposed to be random and not a fixed underlying MDP. - In the definition of the factored MDPs I did not understand the role of the set X. Does this correspond to a set of state-action pairs?

This paper considers a challenging problem of identifying a causal graphical model under the presence of latent variables. While various identifiability conditions have been proposed in the literature, they often require multiple pure children per latent variable or restrictions on the latent causal graph. Furthermore, it is common for all observed variables to exhibit the same modality. Consequently, the existing identifiability conditions are often too stringent for complex real-world data. We consider a general nonparametric measurement model with arbitrary observed variable types and binary latent variables, and propose a double triangular graphical condition that guarantees identifiability of the entire causal graphical model. The proposed condition significantly relaxes the popular pure children condition. We also establish necessary conditions for identifiability and provide valuable insights into fundamental limits of identifiability. Simulation studies verify that latent structures satisfying our conditions can be accurately estimated from data.

The challenge of learning the causal structure underlying a certain phenomenon is undertaken by connecting the set of conditional independences (CIs) readable from the observational data, on the one side, with the set of corresponding constraints implied over the graphical structure, on the other, which are tied through a graphical criterion known as d-separation (Pearl, 1988). In this paper, we investigate the more general scenario where multiple observational and experimental distributions are available. We start with the simple observation that the invariances given by CIs/d-separation are just one special type of a broader set of constraints, which follow from the careful comparison of the different distributions available. Remarkably, these new constraints are intrinsically connected with do-calculus (Pearl, 1995) in the context of soft-interventions. We introduce a novel notion of interventional equivalence class of causal graphs with latent variables based on these invariances, which associates each graphical structure with a set of interventional distributions that respect the do-calculus rules.

In this work, we present an additive model for space-time data that splits the data into a temporally correlated component and a spatially correlated component.