Event datasets include events that occur irregularly over the timeline and are prevalent in numerous domains. We introduce proximal graphical event models (PGEM) as a representation of such datasets. PGEMs belong to a broader family of models that characterize relationships between various types of events, where the rate of occurrence of an event type depends only on whether or not its parents have occurred in the most recent history. The main advantage over the state of the art models is that they are entirely data driven and do not require additional inputs from the user, which can require knowledge of the domain such as choice of basis functions or hyperparameters in graphical event models. We theoretically justify our learning of optimal windows for parental history and the choices of parental sets, and the algorithm are sound and complete in terms of parent structure learning.

This technical report tries to fill a gap in current literature on Timescale Graphical Event Models. I propose and evaluate different heuristics to determine hyper-parameters during the structure learning algorithm and refine an existing distance measure. A comprehensive benchmark on synthetic data will be conducted allowing conclusions about the applicability of the different heuristics.

Event datasets are sequences of events of various types occurring irregularly over the time-line, and they are increasingly prevalent in numerous domains. Existing work for modeling events using conditional intensities rely on either using some underlying parametric form to capture historical dependencies, or on non-parametric models that focus primarily on tasks such as prediction. We propose a non-parametric deep neural network approach in order to estimate the underlying intensity functions. We use a novel multi-channel RNN that optimally reinforces the negative evidence of no observable events with the introduction of fake event epochs within each consecutive inter-event interval. We evaluate our method against state-of-the-art baselines on model fitting tasks as gauged by log-likelihood. Through experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we find that our proposed approach outperforms existing baselines on most of the datasets studied.