Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a data-driven strategy for minimizing/maximizing black-box functions based on probabilistic surrogate models. In the presence of safety constraints, the performance of BO crucially relies on tight probabilistic error bounds related to the uncertainty surrounding the surrogate model. For the case of Gaussian Process surrogates and Gaussian measurement noise, we present a novel error bound based on the recently proposed Wiener kernel regression. We prove that under rather mild assumptions, the proposed error bound is tighter than bounds previously documented in the literature which leads to enlarged safety regions. We draw upon a numerical example to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed error bound in safe BO.

The identification of the constrained dynamics of mechanical systems is often challenging. Learning methods promise to ease an analytical analysis, but require considerable amounts of data for training. We propose to combine insights from analytical mechanics with Gaussian process regression to improve the model's data efficiency and constraint integrity. The result is a Gaussian process model that incorporates a priori constraint knowledge such that its predictions adhere to Gauss' principle of least constraint. In return, predictions of the system's acceleration naturally respect potentially non-ideal (non-)holonomic equality constraints. As corollary results, our model enables to infer the acceleration of the unconstrained system from data of the constrained system and enables knowledge transfer between differing constraint configurations.

Nonparametric modeling approaches show very promising results in the area of system identification and control. A naturally provided model confidence is highly relevant for system-theoretical considerations to provide guarantees for application scenarios. Gaussian process regression represents one approach which provides such an indicator for the model confidence. However, this measure is only valid if the covariance function and its hyperparameters fit the underlying data generating process. In this paper, we derive an upper bound for the mean square prediction error of misspecified Gaussian process models based on a pseudo-concave optimization problem. We present application scenarios and a simulation to compare the derived upper bound with the true mean square error.