This note introduces a doubly robust (DR) estimator for regression discontinuity (RD) designs. RD designs provide a quasi-experimental framework for estimating treatment effects, where treatment assignment depends on whether a running variable surpasses a predefined cutoff. A common approach in RD estimation is the use of nonparametric regression methods, such as local linear regression. However, the validity of these methods still relies on the consistency of the nonparametric estimators. In this study, we propose the DR-RD estimator, which combines two distinct estimators for the conditional expected outcomes. The primary advantage of the DR-RD estimator lies in its ability to ensure the consistency of the treatment effect estimation as long as at least one of the two estimators is consistent. Consequently, our DR-RD estimator enhances robustness of treatment effect estimators in RD designs.

The famous example of the double-Watt mechanism given by Connelly and Servatius raises some problems concerning the classical definitions of higher-order flexibility and rigidity, respectively, as they attest the cusp configuration of the mechanism a third-order rigidity, which conflicts with its continuous flexion. Some attempts were done to resolve the dilemma but they could not settle the problem. As cusp mechanisms demonstrate the basic shortcoming of any local mobility analysis using higher-order constraints, we present a global approach inspired by Sabitov's finite algorithm for testing the bendability of a polyhedron, which allows us (a) to compute iteratively configurations with a higher-order flexion and (b) to come up with a proper redefinition of higher-order flexibility and rigidity. We also give algorithms for computing the flexion orders as well as the associated flexes. The presented approach is demonstrated on several examples (double-Watt mechanisms and Tarnai's Leonardo structure). Moreover, we determine all configurations of a given 3-RPR manipulator with a third-order flexion and present a corresponding joint-bar framework of flexion order 23.

As the use of solar power increases, having accurate and timely forecasts will be essential for smooth grid operators. There are many proposed methods for forecasting solar irradiance / solar power production. However, many of these methods formulate the problem as a time-series, relying on near real-time access to observations at the location of interest to generate forecasts. This requires both access to a real-time stream of data and enough historical observations for these methods to be deployed. In this paper, we propose the use of Global methods to train our models in a generalised way, enabling them to generate forecasts for unseen locations. We apply this approach to both classical ML and state of the art methods. Using data from 20 locations distributed throughout the UK and widely available weather data, we show that it is possible to build systems that do not require access to this data. We utilise and compare both satellite and ground observations (e.g. temperature, pressure) of weather data. Leveraging weather observations and measurements from other locations we show it is possible to create models capable of accurately forecasting solar irradiance at new locations. This could facilitate use planning and optimisation for both newly deployed solar farms and domestic installations from the moment they come online. Additionally, we show that training a single global model for multiple locations can produce a more robust model with more consistent and accurate results across locations.

We propose an effective method to improve Protein Function Prediction (PFP) utilizing hierarchical features of Gene Ontology (GO) terms. Our method consists of a language model for encoding the protein sequence and a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) for representing GO terms. To reflect the hierarchical structure of GO to GCN, we employ node(GO term)-wise representations containing the whole hierarchical information. Our algorithm shows effectiveness in a large-scale graph by expanding the GO graph compared to previous models. Experimental results show that our method outperformed state-of-the-art PFP approaches.

Forecasting groups of time series is of increasing practical importance, e.g. forecasting the demand for multiple products offered by a retailer or server loads within a data center. The local approach to this problem considers each time series separately and fits a function or model to each series. The global approach fits a single function to all series. For groups of similar time series, global methods outperform the more established local methods. However, recent results show good performance of global models even in heterogeneous datasets. This suggests a more general applicability of global methods, potentially leading to more accurate tools and new scenarios to study. Formalizing the setting of forecasting a set of time series with local and global methods, we provide the following contributions: 1) Global methods are not more restrictive than local methods, both can produce the same forecasts without any assumptions about similarity of the series. Global models can succeed in a wider range of problems than previously thought. 2) Basic generalization bounds for local and global algorithms. The complexity of local methods grows with the size of the set while it remains constant for global methods. In large datasets, a global algorithm can afford to be quite complex and still benefit from better generalization. These bounds serve to clarify and support recent experimental results in the field, and guide the design of new algorithms. For the class of autoregressive models, this implies that global models can have much larger memory than local methods. 3) In an extensive empirical study, purposely naive algorithms derived from these principles, such as global linear models or deep networks result in superior accuracy. In particular, global linear models can provide competitive accuracy with two orders of magnitude fewer parameters than local methods.

Under the global pandemic of COVID-19, the use of artificial intelligence to analyze chest X-ray (CXR) image for COVID-19 diagnosis and patient triage is becoming important. Unfortunately, due to the emergent nature of the COVID-19 pandemic, a systematic collection of the CXR data set for deep neural network training is difficult. To address this problem, here we propose a patch-based convolutional neural network approach with a relatively small number of trainable parameters for COVID-19 diagnosis. The proposed method is inspired by our statistical analysis of the potential imaging biomarkers of the CXR radiographs. Experimental results show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance and provides clinically interpretable saliency maps, which are useful for COVID-19 diagnosis and patient triage.

In response to the serious threat that AI-enabled bots and deepfakes pose for election integrity, the California government has pushed forward progressive pieces of legislation that have influenced federal and international efforts. Passed in 2018, the "Bots Disclosure Act" makes it unlawful to use a bot to influence a commercial transaction or a vote in an election without disclosure in California. This includes bots deployed by companies in other states and countries, which requires those companies to either develop bespoke standards for Californian residents or harmonize their strategies across jurisdictions to maintain efficiency. At the federal level, the "Bots Disclosure and Accountability Act" includes many of the same strategies proposed in California. The California "Anti-Deepfakes Bill" seeks to mitigate the spread and impact of malicious political deepfakes before an election and the federal "Deepfakes Accountability Act" seeks to do the same.

We consider the problem of learning the link parameters as well as the structure of a binary-valued pairwise Markov model. We propose a method based on $l_1$- regularized logistic regression, which estimate globally the whole set of edges and link parameters. Unlike the more recent methods discussed in literature that learn the edges and the corresponding link parameters one node at a time, in this work we propose a method that learns all the edges and corresponding link parameters simultaneously for all nodes, in a global manner. The idea behind this proposal is to exploit the reciprocal information of the nodes between each other during the estimation process. Detailed numerical experiments highlight the advantage of this technique and confirm the intuition behind it.

Networks are ubiquitous in biology and computational approaches have been largely investigated for their inference. In particular, supervised machine learning methods can be used to complete a partially known network by integrating various measurements. Two main supervised frameworks have been proposed: the local approach, which trains a separate model for each network node, and the global approach, which trains a single model over pairs of nodes. Here, we systematically investigate, theoretically and empirically, the exploitation of tree-based ensemble methods in the context of these two approaches for biological network inference. We first formalize the problem of network inference as classification of pairs, unifying in the process homogeneous and bipartite graphs and discussing two main sampling schemes. We then present the global and the local approaches, extending the later for the prediction of interactions between two unseen network nodes, and discuss their specializations to tree-based ensemble methods, highlighting their interpretability and drawing links with clustering techniques. Extensive computational experiments are carried out with these methods on various biological networks that clearly highlight that these methods are competitive with existing methods.