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Computational and Statistical Hardness of Calibration Distance

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The distance from calibration, introduced by Błasiok, Gopalan, Hu, and Nakkiran (STOC 2023), has recently emerged as a central measure of miscalibration for probabilistic predictors. We study the fundamental problems of computing and estimating this quantity, given either an exact description of the data distribution or only sample access to it. We give an efficient algorithm that exactly computes the calibration distance when the distribution has a uniform marginal and noiseless labels, which improves the $O(1/\sqrt{|\mathcal{X}|})$ additive approximation of Qiao and Zheng (COLT 2024) for this special case. Perhaps surprisingly, the problem becomes $\mathsf{NP}$-hard when either of the two assumptions is removed. We extend our algorithm to a polynomial-time approximation scheme for the general case. For the estimation problem, we show that $Θ(1/ε^3)$ samples are sufficient and necessary for the empirical calibration distance to be upper bounded by the true distance plus $ε$. In contrast, a polynomial dependence on the domain size -- incurred by the learning-based baseline -- is unavoidable for two-sided estimation. Our positive results are based on simple sparsifications of both the distribution and the target predictor, which significantly reduce the search space for computation and lead to stronger concentration for the estimation problem. To prove the hardness results, we introduce new techniques for certifying lower bounds on the calibration distance -- a problem that is hard in general due to its $\textsf{co-NP}$-completeness.


14da15db887a4b50efe5c1bc66537089-AuthorFeedback.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

We are grateful for all the reviewers' valuable suggestions and questions. The results are displayed in Figure 1. " stands for equality up to zero-valued paddings. ICLR2019), but with the top layer to be zero. We will clarify this in the revised version.



Optimal Decision Tree with Noisy Outcomes

Neural Information Processing Systems

A fundamental task in active learning involves performing a sequence of tests to identify an unknown hypothesis that is drawn from a known distribution. This problem, known as optimal decision tree induction, has been widely studied for decades and the asymptotically best-possible approximation algorithm has been devised for it. We study a generalization where certain test outcomes are noisy, even in the more general case when the noise is persistent, i.e., repeating the test on the scenario gives the same noisy output, disallowing simple repetition as a way to gain confidence. We design new approximation algorithms for both the non-adaptive setting, where the test sequence must be fixed a-priori, and the adaptive setting where the test sequence depends on the outcomes of prior tests. Previous work in the area assumed at most a constant number of noisy outcomes per test and per scenario and provided approximation ratios that were problem dependent (such as the minimum probability of a hypothesis). Our new approximation algorithms provide guarantees that are nearly best-possible and work for the general case of a large number of noisy outcomes per test or per hypothesis where the performance degrades smoothly with this number. Our results adapt and generalize methods used for submodular ranking and stochastic set cover. We evaluate the performance of our algorithms on two natural applications with noise: toxic chemical identification and active learning of linear classifiers. Despite our logarithmic theoretical approximation guarantees, our methods give solutions with cost very close to the information theoretic minimum, demonstrating the effectiveness of our methods.


5f7695debd8cde8db5abcb9f161b49ea-AuthorFeedback.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

In Theorem 2, the projection is only weakened to the left side. In Lemma 2, we prove that the optimal dual variable is bounded under the Slater condition. 's*, *dimension-free*: They are dependent. R#2: Thank you for your positive comments and constructive suggestions. R#3: Thank you for recognizing the contributions/strengths of our paper and for providing valuable comments.



would like to address all concerns raised

Neural Information Processing Systems

We would like to thank all of the reviewers for their valuable time and their constructive comments. We will incorporate the proposed minor corrections in the final version of the paper. On whether support set changes during iterations, we observe that in experiments (subsection 4.1) IHT changes support, We thank the reviewer for the supportive and constructive review. Regarding the comment in lines 198-202, we apologize for any confusion. Regarding variance in experiments, we have observed high variance is not enough for the algorithm to get "lucky".


fcdf698a5d673435e0a5a6f9ffea05ca-AuthorFeedback.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

We thank all the reviewers for the valuable insights and feedback. Below please see our response to the questions. Brief description of SAEM: Thank you for the suggestion. Causal direction flipping is not an assumption. It is hard to handle with traditional methods.



A Convex and Global Solution for the P$n$P Problem in 2D Forward-Looking Sonar

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The perspective-$n$-point (P$n$P) problem is important for robotic pose estimation. It is well studied for optical cameras, but research is lacking for 2D forward-looking sonar (FLS) in underwater scenarios due to the vastly different imaging principles. In this paper, we demonstrate that, despite the nonlinearity inherent in sonar image formation, the P$n$P problem for 2D FLS can still be effectively addressed within a point-to-line (PtL) 3D registration paradigm through orthographic approximation. The registration is then resolved by a duality-based optimal solver, ensuring the global optimality. For coplanar cases, a null space analysis is conducted to retrieve the solutions from the dual formulation, enabling the methods to be applied to more general cases. Extensive simulations have been conducted to systematically evaluate the performance under different settings. Compared to non-reprojection-optimized state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods, the proposed approach achieves significantly higher precision. When both methods are optimized, ours demonstrates comparable or slightly superior precision.