By now Bayesian methods are routinely used in practice for solving inverse problems.

Gaussian process regression is widely used because of its ability to provide well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and handle small or sparse datasets. However, it struggles with high-dimensional data. One possible way to scale this technique to higher dimensions is to leverage the implicit low-dimensional manifold upon which the data actually lies, as postulated by the manifold hypothesis. Prior work ordinarily requires the manifold structure to be explicitly provided though, i.e. given by a mesh or be known to be one of the well-known manifolds like the sphere. In contrast, in this paper we propose a Gaussian process regression technique capable of inferring implicit structure directly from data (labeled and unlabeled) in a fully differentiable way. For the resulting model, we discuss its convergence to the Matérn Gaussian process on the assumed manifold. Our technique scales up to hundreds of thousands of data points, and improves the predictive performance and calibration of the standard Gaussian process regression in some high-dimensional settings.

We rigorously prove that deep Gaussian process priors can outperform Gaussian process priors if the target function has a compositional structure. To this end, we study information-theoretic lower bounds for posterior contraction rates for Gaussian process regression in a continuous regression model. We show that if the true function is a generalized additive function, then the posterior based on any mean-zero Gaussian process can only recover the truth at a rate that is strictly slower than the minimax rate by a factor that is polynomially suboptimal in the sample size $n$.

In this paper, we consider Byzantine-tolerant federated learning for streaming data using Gaussian process regression (GPR). In particular, a cloud and a group of agents aim to collaboratively learn a latent function where some agents are subject to Byzantine attacks. We develop a Byzantine-tolerant federated GPR algorithm, which includes three modules: agent-based local GPR, cloud-based aggregated GPR and agent-based fused GPR. We derive the upper bounds on prediction error between the mean from the cloud-based aggregated GPR and the target function provided that Byzantine agents are less than one quarter of all the agents. We also characterize the lower and upper bounds of the predictive variance. Experiments on a synthetic dataset and two real-world datasets are conducted to evaluate the proposed algorithm.

Forward Osmosis (FO) is a promising low-energy membrane separation technology, but challenges in accurately modelling its water flux (Jw) persist due to complex internal mass transfer phenomena. Traditional mechanistic models struggle with empirical parameter variability, while purely data-driven models lack physical consistency and rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ). This study introduces a novel Robust Hybrid Physics-ML framework employing Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for highly accurate, uncertainty-aware Jw prediction. The core innovation lies in training the GPR on the residual error between the detailed, non-linear FO physical model prediction (Jw_physical) and the experimental water flux (Jw_actual). Crucially, we implement a full UQ methodology by decomposing the total predictive variance (sigma2_total) into model uncertainty (epistemic, from GPR's posterior variance) and input uncertainty (aleatoric, analytically propagated via the Delta method for multi-variate correlated inputs). Leveraging the inherent strength of GPR in low-data regimes, the model, trained on a meagre 120 data points, achieved a state-of-the-art Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.26% and an R2 of 0.999 on the independent test data, validating a truly robust and reliable surrogate model for advanced FO process optimization and digital twin development.

Understanding driver interactions is critical to designing autonomous vehicles to interoperate safely with human-driven cars. We consider the impact of these interactions on the policies drivers employ when navigating unsigned intersections in a driving simulator. The simulator allows the collection of naturalistic decision-making and behavior data in a controlled environment. Using these data, we model the human driver responses as state-based feedback controllers learned via Gaussian Process regression methods. We compute the feedback gain of the controller using a weighted combination of linear and nonlinear priors. We then analyze how the individual gains are reflected in driver behavior. We also assess differences in these controllers across populations of drivers. Our work in data-driven analyses of how drivers determine their policies can facilitate future work in the design of socially responsive autonomy for vehicles.

Large-scale Gaussian process inference has long faced practical challenges due to time and space complexity that is superlinear in dataset size.

Two key properties of covariance functions are stationarity and monotony .

This new formulation allows our algorithm to update basis functions online in accordance with the manifold structure of probability densities for fast convergence.