Unsupervised learning of generative models has seen tremendous progress over recent years, in particular due to generative adversarial networks (GANs), variational autoencoders, and flow-based models. GANs have dramatically improved sample quality, but suffer from two drawbacks: (i) they mode-drop, \ie, do not cover the full support of the train data, and (ii) they do not allow for likelihood evaluations on held-out data. In contrast likelihood-based training encourages models to cover the full support of the train data, but yields poorer samples. These mutual shortcomings can in principle be addressed by training generative latent variable models in a hybrid adversarial-likelihood manner. However, we show that commonly made parametric assumptions create a conflict between them, making successful hybrid models non trivial. As a solution, we propose the use of deep invertible transformations in the latent variable decoder. This approach allows for likelihood computations in image space, is more efficient than fully invertible models, and can take full advantage of adversarial training. We show that our model significantly improves over existing hybrid models: offering GAN-like samples, IS and FID scores that are competitive with fully adversarial models and improved likelihood scores.

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Performative predictions are forecasts which influence the outcomes they aim to predict, undermining the existence of correct forecasts and standard methods of elicitation and estimation. We show that conditioning forecasts on covariates that separate them from the outcome renders the target distribution forecast-invariant, guaranteeing well-posedness of the forecasting problem. However, even under this condition, classical proper scoring rules fail to elicit correct forecasts. We prove a general impossibility result and identify two solutions: (i) in decision-theoretic settings, elicitation of correct and incentive-compatible forecasts is possible if forecasts are separating; (ii) scoring with unbiased estimates of the divergence between the forecast and the induced distribution of the target variable yields correct forecasts. Applying these insights to parameter estimation, conditional forecasts and proper scoring rules enable performatively stable estimation of performatively correct parameters, resolving the issues raised by Perdomo et al. (2020). Our results expose fundamental limits of classical forecast evaluation and offer new tools for reliable and accurate forecasting in performative settings.

The classical policy gradient method is the theoretical and conceptual foundation of modern policy-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. Most rigorous analyses of such methods, particularly those establishing convergence guarantees, assume a discount factor $γ< 1$. In contrast, however, a recent line of work on policy-based RL for large language models uses the undiscounted total-reward setting with $γ= 1$, rendering much of the existing theory inapplicable. In this paper, we provide analyses of the policy gradient method for undiscounted expected total-reward infinite-horizon MDPs based on two key insights: (i) the classification of the MDP states into recurrent and transient states is invariant over the set of policies that assign strictly positive probability to every action (as is typical in deep RL models employing a softmax output layer) and (ii) the classical state visitation measure (which may be ill-defined when $γ= 1$) can be replaced with a new object that we call the transient visitation measure.