Solar Proton Events (SPEs) cause significant radiation hazards to satellites, astronauts, and technological systems. Accurate forecasting of their proton flux time profiles is crucial for early warnings and mitigation. This paper explores deep learning sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models based on Long Short-Term Memory networks to predict 24-hour proton flux profiles following SPE onsets. We used a dataset of 40 well-connected SPEs (1997-2017) observed by NOAA GOES, each associated with a >=M-class western-hemisphere solar flare and undisturbed proton flux profiles. Using 4-fold stratified cross-validation, we evaluate seq2seq model configurations (varying hidden units and embedding dimensions) under multiple forecasting scenarios: (i) proton-only input vs. combined proton+X-ray input, (ii) original flux data vs. trend-smoothed data, and (iii) autoregressive vs. one-shot forecasting. Our major results are as follows: First, one-shot forecasting consistently yields lower error than autoregressive prediction, avoiding the error accumulation seen in iterative approaches. Second, on the original data, proton-only models outperform proton+X-ray models. However, with trend-smoothed data, this gap narrows or reverses in proton+X-ray models. Third, trend-smoothing significantly enhances the performance of proton+X-ray models by mitigating fluctuations in the X-ray channel. Fourth, while models trained on trendsmoothed data perform best on average, the best-performing model was trained on original data, suggesting that architectural choices can sometimes outweigh the benefits of data preprocessing.

While current time series research focuses on developing new models, crucial questions of selecting an optimal approach for training such models are underexplored. Tsururu, a Python library introduced in this paper, bridges SoT A research and industry by enabling flexible combinations of global and multivariate approaches and multi-step-ahead forecasting strategies. It also enables seamless integration with various forecasting models.

A key aspect of temporal domains is the ability to make predictions multiple time steps into the future, a process known as multi-step forecasting (MSF). At the core of this process is selecting a forecasting strategy, however, with no existing frameworks to map out the space of strategies, practitioners are left with ad-hoc methods for strategy selection. In this work, we propose Stratify, a parameterised framework that addresses multi-step forecasting, unifying existing strategies and introducing novel, improved strategies. We evaluate Stratify on 18 benchmark datasets, five function classes, and short to long forecast horizons (10, 20, 40, 80). In over 84% of 1080 experiments, novel strategies in Stratify improved performance compared to all existing ones. Importantly, we find that no single strategy consistently outperforms others in all task settings, highlighting the need for practitioners explore the Stratify space to carefully search and select forecasting strategies based on task-specific requirements. Our results are the most comprehensive benchmarking of known and novel forecasting strategies. We make code available to reproduce our results.

Multi-step forecasting (MSF) in time-series, the ability to make predictions multiple time steps into the future, is fundamental to almost all temporal domains. To make such forecasts, one must assume the recursive complexity of the temporal dynamics. Such assumptions are referred to as the forecasting strategy used to train a predictive model. Previous work shows that it is not clear which forecasting strategy is optimal a priori to evaluating on unseen data. Furthermore, current approaches to MSF use a single (fixed) forecasting strategy. In this paper, we characterise the instance-level variance of optimal forecasting strategies and propose Dynamic Strategies (DyStrat) for MSF. We experiment using 10 datasets from different scales, domains, and lengths of multi-step horizons. When using a random-forest-based classifier, DyStrat outperforms the best fixed strategy, which is not knowable a priori, 94% of the time, with an average reduction in mean-squared error of 11%. Our approach typically triples the top-1 accuracy compared to current approaches. Notably, we show DyStrat generalises well for any MSF task.

Long-range time series forecasting is usually based on one of two existing forecasting strategies: Direct Forecasting and Iterative Forecasting, where the former provides low bias, high variance forecasts and the latter leads to low variance, high bias forecasts. In this paper, we propose a new forecasting strategy called Generative Forecasting (GenF), which generates synthetic data for the next few time steps and then makes long-range forecasts based on generated and observed data. We theoretically prove that GenF is able to better balance the forecasting variance and bias, leading to a much smaller forecasting error. We implement GenF via three components: (i) a novel conditional Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) based generator for synthetic time series data generation, called CWGAN-TS. (ii) a transformer based predictor, which makes long-range predictions using both generated and observed data. (iii) an information theoretic clustering algorithm to improve the training of both the CWGAN-TS and the transformer based predictor. The experimental results on five public datasets demonstrate that GenF significantly outperforms a diverse range of state-of-the-art benchmarks and classical approaches. Specifically, we find a 5% - 11% improvement in predictive performance (mean absolute error) while having a 15% - 50% reduction in parameters compared to the benchmarks. Lastly, we conduct an ablation study to further explore and demonstrate the effectiveness of the components comprising GenF.

Decision makers in any sales organization know that forecasting correctly is both art and science. To predict the unforeseen successfully, you must use every piece of logic and reasoning available to help you make your predictions reality. When developing a strategic forecasting approach, your business needs to take a number of items into consideration simultaneously -- and that is no easy feat. Call centers, for example, must have a thorough understanding of seasonality and industry market trends to identify anomalies and increase accuracy. Precise forecasting and scheduling depend on historical data, potential future fluctuations and current market conditions. Enhancing and refining your forecasts with the help of new technology and techniques is key to minimizing costs and driving more revenue into your organization.

Listening to current retail technology discussions, it's safe to say that artificial intelligence is the early favorite for buzzword of the year, with countless taglines promising unprecedented productivity improvements based on AI. Advanced forecasting is often cited as one of the top areas where AI holds great promise – but how do you separate the hype from the reality? As retailers make big investments in AI technologies that can transform their business, a key focus is increasing supply chain effectiveness and creating more accurate forecasts. However, prior to implementing new solutions, retailers need to have a clear understanding of what advanced forecasting actually entails, how AI will play a role in advanced forecasting, and what their specific forecasting strategy needs really are. By definition, artificial intelligence means "the capability of a machine to imitate intelligent human behavior."

Multi-step ahead forecasting is still an open challenge in time series forecasting. Several approaches that deal with this complex problem have been proposed in the literature but an extensive comparison on a large number of tasks is still missing. This paper aims to fill this gap by reviewing existing strategies for multi-step ahead forecasting and comparing them in theoretical and practical terms. To attain such an objective, we performed a large scale comparison of these different strategies using a large experimental benchmark (namely the 111 series from the NN5 forecasting competition). In addition, we considered the effects of deseasonalization, input variable selection, and forecast combination on these strategies and on multi-step ahead forecasting at large. The following three findings appear to be consistently supported by the experimental results: Multiple-Output strategies are the best performing approaches, deseasonalization leads to uniformly improved forecast accuracy, and input selection is more effective when performed in conjunction with deseasonalization.