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Betting the system: Using lineups to predict football scores

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper aims to reduce randomness in football by analysing the role of lineups in final scores using machine learning prediction models we have developed. Football clubs invest millions of dollars on lineups and knowing how individual statistics translate to better outcomes can optimise investments. Moreover, sports betting is growing exponentially and being able to predict the future is profitable and desirable. We use machine learning models and historical player data from English Premier League (2020-2022) to predict scores and to understand how individual performance can improve the outcome of a match. We compared different prediction techniques to maximise the possibility of finding useful models. We created heuristic and machine learning models predicting football scores to compare different techniques. We used different sets of features and shown goalkeepers stats are more important than attackers stats to predict goals scored. We applied a broad evaluation process to assess the efficacy of the models in real world applications. We managed to predict correctly all relegated teams after forecast 100 consecutive matches. We show that Support Vector Regression outperformed other techniques predicting final scores and that lineups do not improve predictions. Finally, our model was profitable (42% return) when emulating a betting system using real world odds data.


'Emotional' Alexa can now get excited by quizzes and disappointed at the football scores

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Amazon's voice assistant Alexa is set to become more emotional as it was announced that developers in the US can now have the device respond to questions in different tones of voice, including expressing disappointment that your favourite sports team had lost. Alexa will be able to respond in an excited and happy or disappointed and empathetic tone, should developers make use of the new feature. Amazon said the intonations would also be particularly useful in voice-based games. Should a user correctly answer a question in a quiz, for example, Alexa can respond with "high-intensity" excitement to congratulate the winner. If your team has lost, Alexa will read out the result with due disappointment and sympathy.


Football - citations

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Football is also one of the most popular sports to gamble on with a myriad of bet types to choose from. The in-play market is particularly busy for bettors with prices constantly updating during the ebb and flow of the game. Because of its popularity, football attracts a lot of academic interest. Here is a citation list for academic papers concerned with football. NOTE - If any links to papers are broken then just Google the paper's title to find an alternate.