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BrainCast: A Spatio-Temporal Forecasting Model for Whole-Brain fMRI Time Series Prediction

Gao, Yunlong, Yang, Jinbo, Xiao, Li, Huo, Haiye, Ji, Yang, Wang, Hao, Zhang, Aiying, Wang, Yu-Ping

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) enables noninvasive investigation of brain function, while short clinical scan durations, arising from human and non-human factors, usually lead to reduced data quality and limited statistical power for neuroimaging research. In this paper, we propose BrainCast, a novel spatio-temporal forecasting framework specifically tailored for whole-brain fMRI time series forecasting, to extend informative fMRI time series without additional data acquisition. It formulates fMRI time series forecasting as a multivariate time series prediction task and jointly models temporal dynamics within regions of interest (ROIs) and spatial interactions across ROIs. Specifically, BrainCast integrates a Spatial Interaction Awareness module to characterize inter-ROI dependencies via embedding every ROI time series as a token, a Temporal Feature Refinement module to capture intrinsic neural dynamics within each ROI by enhancing both low- and high-energy temporal components of fMRI time series at the ROI level, and a Spatio-temporal Pattern Alignment module to combine spatial and temporal representations for producing informative whole-brain features. Experimental results on resting-state and task fMRI datasets from the Human Connectome Project demonstrate the superiority of BrainCast over state-of-the-art time series forecasting baselines. Moreover, fMRI time series extended by BrainCast improve downstream cognitive ability prediction, highlighting the clinical and neuroscientific impact brought by whole-brain fMRI time series forecasting in scenarios with restricted scan durations.





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Neural Information Processing Systems

The23 proposed SSCM does coverthe case of non-zero variance, but currently the identifiability proof is only shown in a24 specific case. Inour simulations under non-zero variance settings, we neverobserved that the procedure converged25 to wrong solutions, suggesting that the non-zero-variance case is also identifiable. For the fMRI and cellular data, the null hypothesis was rejected at significance level 0.01. Regarding causal28 structure variation, for fMRI data, it is well-known that neural connectivities may change across different external29 stimuliorintrinsicstates. Forcellular32 data, causal structure may be different across conditions/interventions.(0)Theyare different.