Predicting the spread of wildfires is essential for effective fire management and risk assessment. With the fast advancements of artificial intelligence (AI), various deep learning models have been developed and utilized for wildfire spread prediction. However, there is limited understanding of the advantages and limitations of these models, and it is also unclear how deep learning-based fire spread models can be compared with existing non-AI fire models. In this work, we assess the ability of five typical deep learning models integrated with weather and environmental variables for wildfire spread prediction based on over ten years of wildfire data in the state of Hawaii. We further use the 2023 Maui fires as a case study to compare the best deep learning models with a widely-used fire spread model, FARSITE. The results show that two deep learning models, i.e., ConvLSTM and ConvLSTM with attention, perform the best among the five tested AI models. FARSITE shows higher precision, lower recall, and higher F1-score than the best AI models, while the AI models offer higher flexibility for the input data. By integrating AI models with an explainable AI method, we further identify important weather and environmental factors associated with the 2023 Maui wildfires.

The 2019-2020 Black Summer bushfires in Australia devastated 19 million hectares, destroyed 3,000 homes, and lasted seven months, demonstrating the escalating scale and urgency of wildfire threats requiring better forecasting for effective response. Traditional fire modeling relies on manual interpretation by Fire Behaviour Analysts (FBAns) and static environmental data, often leading to inaccuracies and operational limitations. Emerging data sources, such as NASA's FIRMS satellite imagery and Volunteered Geographic Information, offer potential improvements by enabling dynamic fire spread prediction. This study proposes a Multimodal Fire Spread Prediction Framework (MFiSP) that integrates social media data and remote sensing observations to enhance forecast accuracy. By adapting fuel map manipulation strategies between assimilation cycles, the framework dynamically adjusts fire behavior predictions to align with the observed rate of spread. We evaluate the efficacy of MFiSP using synthetically generated fire event polygons across multiple scenarios, analyzing individual and combined impacts on forecast perimeters. Results suggest that our MFiSP integrating multimodal data can improve fire spread prediction beyond conventional methods reliant on FBAn expertise and static inputs.

We present a multi-pronged approach to improving the time and energy required to meet these demands. We show the ability of a custom machine learning surrogate model to predict the dynamics of heat propagation orders of magnitude faster than state-of-the-art CFD software for this application. We also demonstrate how a guided optimisation procedure can decrease the number of simulations required to meet an objective; using lightweight models to decide which simulations to run, we see a tenfold reduction when locating the most dangerous location for a fire to occur within a building based on the impact of smoke on visibility. Finally we present a framework and product, Simvue, through which we access these tools along with a host of automatic organisational and tracking features which enables future reuse of data and more savings through better management of simulations and combating redundancy. 2 INTRODUCTION A key objective in fire safety design is to ensure that occupants of a building are able to vacate safely during an emergency. Removing smoke through exhaust systems which activate after detection of a fire is one approach to improving the safety of occupants during egress.

This paper proposes a Conflict-aware Resource-Efficient Decentralized Sequential planner (CREDS) for early wildfire mitigation using multiple heterogeneous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Multi-UAV wildfire management scenarios are non-stationary, with spatially clustered dynamically spreading fires, potential pop-up fires, and partial observability due to limited UAV numbers and sensing range. The objective of CREDS is to detect and sequentially mitigate all growing fires as Single-UAV Tasks (SUT), minimizing biodiversity loss through rapid UAV intervention and promoting efficient resource utilization by avoiding complex multi-UAV coordination. CREDS employs a three-phased approach, beginning with fire detection using a search algorithm, followed by local trajectory generation using the auction-based Resource-Efficient Decentralized Sequential planner (REDS), incorporating the novel non-stationary cost function, the Deadline-Prioritized Mitigation Cost (DPMC). Finally, a conflict-aware consensus algorithm resolves conflicts to determine a global trajectory for spatiotemporal mitigation. The performance evaluation of the CREDS for partial and full observability conditions with both heterogeneous and homogeneous UAV teams for different fires-to-UAV ratios demonstrates a $100\%$ success rate for ratios up to $4$ and a high success rate for the critical ratio of $5$, outperforming baselines. Heterogeneous UAV teams outperform homogeneous teams in handling heterogeneous deadlines of SUT mitigation. CREDS exhibits scalability and $100\%$ convergence, demonstrating robustness against potential deadlock assignments, enhancing its success rate compared to the baseline approaches.

This paper addresses early wildfire management using a team of UAVs for the mitigation of fires. The early detection and mitigation systems help in alleviating the destruction with reduced resource utilization. A Genetic Algorithm-based Routing and Scheduling with Time constraints (GARST) is proposed to find the shortest schedule route to mitigate the fires as Single UAV Tasks (SUT). The objective of GARST is to compute the route and schedule of the UAVs so that the UAVS reach the assigned fire locations before the fire becomes a Multi UAV Task (MUT) and completely quench the fire using the extinguisher. The fitness function used for the genetic algorithm is the total quench time for mitigation of total fires. The selection, crossover, mutation operators, and elitist strategies collectively ensure the exploration and exploitation of the solution space, maintaining genetic diversity, preventing premature convergence, and preserving high-performing individuals for the effective optimization of solutions. The GARST effectively addresses the challenges posed by the NP-complete problem of routing and scheduling for growing tasks with time constraints. The GARST is able to handle infeasible scenarios effectively, contributing to the overall optimization of the wildfire management system.

The increasing size and severity of wildfires across western North America have generated dangerous levels of PM$_{2.5}$ pollution in recent years. In a warming climate, expanding the use of prescribed fires is widely considered to be the most robust fire mitigation strategy. However, reliably forecasting the potential air quality impact from these prescribed fires, a critical ingredient in determining the fires' location and time, at hourly to daily time scales remains a challenging problem. This paper proposes a novel integration of prescribed fire simulation with a spatio-temporal graph neural network-based PM$_{2.5}$ forecasting model. The experiments in this work focus on determining the optimal time for implementing prescribed fires in California as well as quantifying the potential air quality trade-offs involved in conducting more prescribed fires outside the fire season.

In this paper, the Multi-Swarm Cooperative Information-driven search and Divide and Conquer mitigation control (MSCIDC) approach is proposed for faster detection and mitigation of forest fire by reducing the loss of biodiversity, nutrients, soil moisture, and other intangible benefits. A swarm is a cooperative group of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) that fly together to search and quench the fire effectively. The multi-swarm cooperative information-driven search uses a multi-level search comprising cooperative information-driven exploration and exploitation for quick/accurate detection of fire location. The search level is selected based on the thermal sensor information about the potential fire area. The dynamicity of swarms, aided by global regulative repulsion and merging between swarms, reduces the detection and mitigation time compared to the existing methods. The local attraction among the members of the swarm helps the non-detector members to reach the fire location faster, and divide-and-conquer mitigation control ensures a non-overlapping fire sector allocation for all members quenching the fire. The performance of MSCIDC has been compared with different multi-UAV methods using a simulated environment of pine forest. The performance clearly shows that MSCIDC mitigates fire much faster than the multi-UAV methods. The Monte-Carlo simulation results indicate that the proposed method reduces the average forest area burnt by $65\%$ and mission time by $60\%$ compared to the best result case of the multi-UAV approaches, guaranteeing a faster and successful mission.

Wildfires are destructive and inflict massive, irreversible harm to victims' lives and natural resources. Researchers have proposed commissioning unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to provide firefighters with real-time tracking information; yet, these UAVs are not able to reason about a fire's track, including current location, measurement, and uncertainty, as well as propagation. We propose a model-predictive, probabilistically safe distributed control algorithm for human-robot collaboration in wildfire fighting. The proposed algorithm overcomes the limitations of prior work by explicitly estimating the latent fire propagation dynamics to enable intelligent, time-extended coordination of the UAVs in support of on-the-ground human firefighters. We derive a novel, analytical bound that enables UAVs to distribute their resources and provides a probabilistic guarantee of the humans' safety while preserving the UAVs' ability to cover an entire fire.