financial return
Reinforcement Learning-Based Market Making as a Stochastic Control on Non-Stationary Limit Order Book Dynamics
Zimmer, Rafael, Costa, Oswaldo Luiz do Valle
Reinforcement Learning has emerged as a promising framework for developing adaptive and data-driven strategies, enabling market makers to optimize decision-making policies based on interactions with the limit order book environment. This paper explores the integration of a reinforcement learning agent in a market-making context, where the underlying market dynamics have been explicitly modeled to capture observed stylized facts of real markets, including clustered order arrival times, non-stationary spreads and return drifts, stochastic order quantities and price volatility. These mechanisms aim to enhance stability of the resulting control agent, and serve to incorporate domain-specific knowledge into the agent policy learning process. Our contributions include a practical implementation of a market making agent based on the Proximal-Policy Optimization (PPO) algorithm, alongside a comparative evaluation of the agent's performance under varying market conditions via a simulator-based environment. As evidenced by our analysis of the financial return and risk metrics when compared to a closed-form optimal solution, our results suggest that the reinforcement learning agent can effectively be used under non-stationary market conditions, and that the proposed simulator-based environment can serve as a valuable tool for training and pre-training reinforcement learning agents in market-making scenarios.
Forecasting Probability Distributions of Financial Returns with Deep Neural Networks
This study evaluates deep neural networks for forecasting probability distributions of financial returns. 1D convolutional neural networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures are used to forecast parameters of three probability distributions: Normal, Student's t, and skewed Student's t. Using custom negative log-likelihood loss functions, distribution parameters are optimized directly. The models are tested on six major equity indices (S\&P 500, BOVESPA, DAX, WIG, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI) using probabilistic evaluation metrics including Log Predictive Score (LPS), Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), and Probability Integral Transform (PIT). Results show that deep learning models provide accurate distributional forecasts and perform competitively with classical GARCH models for Value-at-Risk estimation. The LSTM with skewed Student's t distribution performs best across multiple evaluation criteria, capturing both heavy tails and asymmetry in financial returns. This work shows that deep neural networks are viable alternatives to traditional econometric models for financial risk assessment and portfolio management.
Monitoring the Dynamic Networks of Stock Returns
Touli, Elena Farahbakhsh, Nguyen, Hoang, Bodnar, Olha
In this paper, we study the connection between the companies in the Swedish capital market. We consider 28 companies included in the determination of the market index OMX30. The network structure of the market is constructed using different methods to determine the distance between the companies. We use hierarchical clustering methods to find the relation among the companies in each window. Next, we obtain one-dimensional time series of the distances between the clustering trees that reflect the changes in the relationship between the companies in the market over time. The method of statistical process control, namely the Shewhart control chart, is applied to those time series to detect abnormal changes in the financial market.
Why business cannot afford to ignore tech ethics
From one angle, the pandemic looks like a vindication of "techno-solutionism". From the more everyday developments of teleconferencing to systems exploiting advanced artificial intelligence, platitudes to the power of innovation abound. Such optimism smacks of short-termism. Desperate times often call for swift and sweeping solutions, but implementing technologies without regard for their impact is risky and increasingly unacceptable to wider society. The business leaders of the future who purchase and deploy such systems face costly repercussions, both financial and reputational. Tech ethics, while a relatively new field, has suffered from perceptions that it is either the domain of philosophers or PR people.
Here's When CEOs Expect to See Financial Returns on Artificial Intelligence
Despite all the hype about artificial intelligence, most executives expect that it will take years before the cutting-edge technology gives their businesses a financial lift. Their long-term view was laid out by consulting firm KPMG in a recent survey of 400 executives, all of whom had artificial intelligence projects in progress within their companies. The executives generally said that it would take some time before artificial intelligence pays dividends, signaling a growing realization that the technology won't have the quick impact that many had initially hoped for. Just over half of the executives surveyed, 51%, said it will take three-to-five years before their A.I. projects create a "significant return on investment." That's in sharp contrast to last year's survey, in which only 28% said it would take that long--highlighting how much executives have reconsidered their initial rosy expectations.
Financial Risk and Returns Prediction with Modular Networked Learning
An artificial agent for financial risk and returns' prediction is built with a modular cognitive system comprised of interconnected recurrent neural networks, such that the agent learns to predict the financial returns, and learns to predict the squared deviation around these predicted returns. These two expectations are used to build a volatility-sensitive interval prediction for financial returns, which is evaluated on three major financial indices and shown to be able to predict financial returns with higher than 80% success rate in interval prediction in both training and testing, raising into question the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The agent is introduced as an example of a class of artificial intelligent systems that are equipped with a Modular Networked Learning cognitive system, defined as an integrated networked system of machine learning modules, where each module constitutes a functional unit that is trained for a given specific task that solves a subproblem of a complex main problem expressed as a network of linked subproblems. In the case of neural networks, these systems function as a form of an "artificial brain", where each module is like a specialized brain region comprised of a neural network with a specific architecture.