false negative rate
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PCS Workflow for Veridical Data Science in the Age of AI
Rewolinski, Zachary T., Yu, Bin
Data science is a pillar of artificial intelligence (AI), which is transforming nearly every domain of human activity, from the social and physical sciences to engineering and medicine. While data-driven findings in AI offer unprecedented power to extract insights and guide decision-making, many are difficult or impossible to replicate. A key reason for this challenge is the uncertainty introduced by the many choices made throughout the data science life cycle (DSLC). Traditional statistical frameworks often fail to account for this uncertainty. The Predictability-Computability-Stability (PCS) framework for veridical (truthful) data science offers a principled approach to addressing this challenge throughout the DSLC. This paper presents an updated and streamlined PCS workflow, tailored for practitioners and enhanced with guided use of generative AI. We include a running example to display the PCS framework in action, and conduct a related case study which showcases the uncertainty in downstream predictions caused by judgment calls in the data cleaning stage.
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Conformal Risk Training: End-to-End Optimization of Conformal Risk Control
Yeh, Christopher, Christianson, Nicolas, Wierman, Adam, Yue, Yisong
While deep learning models often achieve high predictive accuracy, their predictions typically do not come with any provable guarantees on risk or reliability, which are critical for deployment in high-stakes applications. The framework of conformal risk control (CRC) provides a distribution-free, finite-sample method for controlling the expected value of any bounded monotone loss function and can be conveniently applied post-hoc to any pre-trained deep learning model. However, many real-world applications are sensitive to tail risks, as opposed to just expected loss. In this work, we develop a method for controlling the general class of Optimized Certainty-Equivalent (OCE) risks, a broad class of risk measures which includes as special cases the expected loss (generalizing the original CRC method) and common tail risks like the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). Furthermore, standard post-hoc CRC can degrade average-case performance due to its lack of feedback to the model. To address this, we introduce "conformal risk training," an end-to-end approach that differentiates through conformal OCE risk control during model training or fine-tuning. Our method achieves provable risk guarantees while demonstrating significantly improved average-case performance over post-hoc approaches on applications to controlling classifiers' false negative rate and controlling financial risk in battery storage operation.
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A Disparity Metric Definitions 566 A.1 Observational Metrics
U 2 U that influences all of the variables U influences. Figure 5: Example of step one in the marginalisation, taken from Evans [22]. In this section we analyse the datasets presented in Le Quy et al. For each bias we provide a justification of our decision. Therefore we drop them from the analysis. Diabetes For this dataset, the goal is to predict if a patient will be readmitted in the next 30 days.
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LLMZ+: Contextual Prompt Whitelist Principles for Agentic LLMs
Pawelek, Tom, Patel, Raj, Crowell, Charlotte, Amiri, Noorbakhsh, Mittal, Sudip, Rahimi, Shahram, Perkins, Andy
Compared to traditional models, agentic AI represents a highly valuable target for potential attackers as they possess privileged access to data sources and API tools, which are traditionally not incorporated into classical agents. Unlike a typical software application residing in a Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), agentic LLMs consciously rely on nondeterministic behavior of the AI (only defining a final goal, leaving the path selection to LLM). This characteristic introduces substantial security risk to both operational security and information security. Most common existing defense mechanism rely on detection of malicious intent and preventing it from reaching the LLM agent, thus protecting against jailbreak attacks such as prompt injection. In this paper, we present an alternative approach, LLMZ+, which moves beyond traditional detection-based approaches by implementing prompt whitelisting. Through this method, only contextually appropriate and safe messages are permitted to interact with the agentic LLM. By leveraging the specificity of context, LLMZ+ guarantees that all exchanges between external users and the LLM conform to predefined use cases and operational boundaries. Our approach streamlines the security framework, enhances its long-term resilience, and reduces the resources required for sustaining LLM information security. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that LLMZ+ provides strong resilience against the most common jailbreak prompts. At the same time, legitimate business communications are not disrupted, and authorized traffic flows seamlessly between users and the agentic LLM. We measure the effectiveness of approach using false positive and false negative rates, both of which can be reduced to 0 in our experimental setting.
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Conditional Conformal Risk Adaptation
Uncertainty quantification is becoming increasingly important in image segmentation, especially for high-stakes applications like medical imaging. While conformal risk control generalizes conformal prediction beyond standard miscoverage to handle various loss functions such as false negative rate, its application to segmentation often yields inadequate conditional risk control: some images experience very high false negative rates while others have negligibly small ones. We develop Conformal Risk Adaptation (CRA), which introduces a new score function for creating adaptive prediction sets that significantly improve conditional risk control for segmentation tasks. We establish a novel theoretical framework that demonstrates a fundamental connection between conformal risk control and conformal prediction through a weighted quantile approach, applicable to any score function. To address the challenge of poorly calibrated probabilities in segmentation models, we introduce a specialized probability calibration framework that enhances the reliability of pixel-wise inclusion estimates. Using these calibrated probabilities, we propose Calibrated Conformal Risk Adaptation (CCRA) and a stratified variant (CCRA-S) that partitions images based on their characteristics and applies group-specific thresholds to further enhance conditional risk control. Our experiments on polyp segmentation demonstrate that all three methods (CRA, CCRA, and CCRA-S) provide valid marginal risk control and deliver more consistent conditional risk control across diverse images compared to standard approaches, offering a principled approach to uncertainty quantification that is particularly valuable for high-stakes and personalized segmentation applications.
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