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Fused Multinomial Logistic Regression Utilizing Summary-Level External Machine-learning Information

Dai, Chi-Shian, Shao, Jun

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In many modern applications, a carefully designed primary study provides individual-level data for interpretable modeling, while summary-level external information is available through black-box, efficient, and nonparametric machine-learning predictions. Although summary-level external information has been studied in the data integration literature, there is limited methodology for leveraging external nonparametric machine-learning predictions to improve statistical inference in the primary study. We propose a general empirical-likelihood framework that incorporates external predictions through moment constraints. An advantage of nonparametric machine-learning prediction is that it induces a rich class of valid moment restrictions that remain robust to covariate shift under a mild overlap condition without requiring explicit density-ratio modeling. We focus on multinomial logistic regression as the primary model and address common data-quality issues in external sources, including coarsened outcomes, partially observed covariates, covariate shift, and heterogeneity in generating mechanisms known as concept shift. We establish large-sample properties of the resulting fused estimator, including consistency and asymptotic normality under regularity conditions. Moreover, we provide mild sufficient conditions under which incorporating external predictions delivers a strict efficiency gain relative to the primary-only estimator. Simulation studies and an application to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey on multiclass blood-pressure classification.



Improving Contrastive Learning on Imbalanced Data via Open-World Sampling

Neural Information Processing Systems

Contrastive learning approaches have achieved great success in learning visual representations with few labels of the target classes. That implies a tantalizing possibility of scaling them up beyond a curated "seed benchmark, to incorporating more unlabeled images from the internet-scale external sources to enhance its performance. However, in practice, larger amount of unlabeled data will require more computing resources due to the bigger model size and longer training needed. Moreover, open-world unlabeled data usually follows an implicit long-tail class or attribute distribution, many of which also do not belong to the target classes. Blindly leveraging all unlabeled data hence can lead to the data imbalance as well as distraction issues. This motivates us to seek a principled approach to strategically select unlabeled data from an external source, in order to learn generalizable, balanced and diverse representations for relevant classes. In this work, we present an open-world unlabeled data sampling framework called Model-Aware K-center (MAK), which follows three simple principles: (1) tailness, which encourages sampling of examples from tail classes, by sorting the empirical contrastive loss expectation (ECLE) of samples over random data augmentations; (2) proximity, which rejects the out-of-distribution outliers that may distract training; and (3) diversity, which ensures diversity in the set of sampled examples. Empirically, using ImageNet-100-LT (without labels) as the seed dataset and two "noisy" external data sources, we demonstrate that MAK can consistently improve both the overall representation quality and the class balancedness of the learned features, as evaluated via linear classifier evaluation on full-shot and few-shot settings. Thecode is available at: https://github.com/VITA-Group/MAK.


Convergence of Multiagent Learning Systems for Traffic control

Sen, Sayambhu, Bhatnagar, Shalabh

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Rapid urbanization in cities like Bangalore has led to severe traffic congestion, making efficient Traffic Signal Control (TSC) essential. Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL), often modeling each traffic signal as an independent agent using Q-learning, has emerged as a promising strategy to reduce average commuter delays. While prior work Prashant L A et. al has empirically demonstrated the effectiveness of this approach, a rigorous theoretical analysis of its stability and convergence properties in the context of traffic control has not been explored. This paper bridges that gap by focusing squarely on the theoretical basis of this multi-agent algorithm. We investigate the convergence problem inherent in using independent learners for the cooperative TSC task. Utilizing stochastic approximation methods, we formally analyze the learning dynamics. The primary contribution of this work is the proof that the specific multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithm for traffic control is proven to converge under the given conditions extending it from single agent convergence proofs for asynchronous value iteration.


Retrieval and Argumentation Enhanced Multi-Agent LLMs for Judgmental Forecasting

Gorur, Deniz, Rago, Antonio, Toni, Francesca

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Judgmental forecasting is the task of making predictions about future events based on human judgment. This task can be seen as a form of claim verification, where the claim corresponds to a future event and the task is to assess the plausibility of that event. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-agent framework for claim verification, whereby different agents may disagree on claim veracity and bring specific evidence for and against the claims, represented as quantitative bipolar argumentation frameworks (QBAFs). We then instantiate the framework for supporting claim verification, with a variety of agents realised with Large Language Models (LLMs): (1) ArgLLM agents, an existing approach for claim verification that generates and evaluates QBAFs; (2) RbAM agents, whereby LLM-empowered Relation-based Argument Mining (RbAM) from external sources is used to generate QBAFs; (3) RAG-ArgLLM agents, extending ArgLLM agents with a form of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) of arguments from external sources. Finally, we conduct experiments with two standard judgmental forecasting datasets, with instances of our framework with two or three agents, empowered by six different base LLMs. We observe that combining evidence from agents can improve forecasting accuracy, especially in the case of three agents, while providing an explainable combination of evidence for claim verification.


FactAppeal: Identifying Epistemic Factual Appeals in News Media

Mor-Lan, Guy, Sheafer, Tamir, Shenhav, Shaul R.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

How is a factual claim made credible? We propose the novel task of Epistemic Appeal Identification, which identifies whether and how factual statements have been anchored by external sources or evidence. To advance research on this task, we present FactAppeal, a manually annotated dataset of 3,226 English-language news sentences. Unlike prior resources that focus solely on claim detection and verification, FactAppeal identifies the nuanced epistemic structures and evidentiary basis underlying these claims and used to support them. FactAppeal contains span-level annotations which identify factual statements and mentions of sources on which they rely. Moreover, the annotations include fine-grained characteristics of factual appeals such as the type of source (e.g. Active Participant, Witness, Expert, Direct Evidence), whether it is mentioned by name, mentions of the source's role and epistemic credentials, attribution to the source via direct or indirect quotation, and other features. We model the task with a range of encoder models and generative decoder models in the 2B-9B parameter range. Our best performing model, based on Gemma 2 9B, achieves a macro-F1 score of 0.73.


Export Reviews, Discussions, Author Feedback and Meta-Reviews

Neural Information Processing Systems

First provide a summary of the paper, and then address the following criteria: Quality, clarity, originality and significance. The paper considers the setting of a sensor network (or agents) in a noisy environment that are able to communicate locally. The authors prove that theoretical bounds on the number of active queries can be achieved through simple best response dynamics. The paper is very well-written, technically correct, and the synthetic experiment makes the results clear. The theoretical results are novel and I think that the paper deserves to be published to be published at NIPS.


External Data-Enhanced Meta-Representation for Adaptive Probabilistic Load Forecasting

Li, Haoran, Guo, Muhao, Ilic, Marija, Weng, Yang, Ruan, Guangchun

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate residential load forecasting is critical for power system reliability with rising renewable integration and demand-side flexibility. However, most statistical and machine learning models treat external factors, such as weather, calendar effects, and pricing, as extra input, ignoring their heterogeneity, and thus limiting the extraction of useful external information. We propose a paradigm shift: external data should serve as meta-knowledge to dynamically adapt the forecasting model itself. Based on this idea, we design a meta-representation framework using hypernetworks that modulate selected parameters of a base Deep Learning (DL) model in response to external conditions. This provides both expressivity and adaptability. We further integrate a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) mechanism to enhance efficiency through selective expert activation, while improving robustness by filtering redundant external inputs. The resulting model, dubbed as a Meta Mixture of Experts for External data (M2oE2), achieves substantial improvements in accuracy and robustness with limited additional overhead, outperforming existing state-of-the-art methods in diverse load datasets. The dataset and source code are publicly available at https://github.com/haorandd/M2oE2\_load\_forecast.git.


Augmenting Large Language Models with Static Code Analysis for Automated Code Quality Improvements

Abtahi, Seyed Moein, Azim, Akramul

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study examined code issue detection and revision automation by integrating Large Language Models (LLMs) such as OpenAI's GPT-3.5 Turbo and GPT-4o into software development workflows. A static code analysis framework detects issues such as bugs, vulnerabilities, and code smells within a large-scale software project. Detailed information on each issue was extracted and organized to facilitate automated code revision using LLMs. An iterative prompt engineering process is applied to ensure that prompts are structured to produce accurate and organized outputs aligned with the project requirements. Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) is implemented to enhance the relevance and precision of the revisions, enabling LLM to access and integrate real-time external knowledge. The issue of LLM hallucinations - where the model generates plausible but incorrect outputs - is addressed by a custom-built "Code Comparison App," which identifies and corrects erroneous changes before applying them to the codebase. Subsequent scans using the static code analysis framework revealed a significant reduction in code issues, demonstrating the effectiveness of combining LLMs, static analysis, and RAG to improve code quality, streamline the software development process, and reduce time and resource expenditure.


Towards SFW sampling for diffusion models via external conditioning

Reyes, Camilo Carvajal, Fontbona, Joaquín, Tobar, Felipe

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Score-based generative models (SBM), also known as diffusion models, are the de facto state of the art for image synthesis. Despite their unparalleled performance, SBMs have recently been in the spotlight for being tricked into creating not-safe-for-work (NSFW) content, such as violent images and non-consensual nudity. Current approaches that prevent unsafe generation are based on the models' own knowledge, and the majority of them require fine-tuning. This article explores the use of external sources for ensuring safe outputs in SBMs. Our safe-for-work (SFW) sampler implements a Conditional Trajectory Correction step that guides the samples away from undesired regions in the ambient space using multimodal models as the source of conditioning. Furthermore, using Contrastive Language Image Pre-training (CLIP), our method admits user-defined NSFW classes, which can vary in different settings. Our experiments on the text-to-image SBM Stable Diffusion validate that the proposed SFW sampler effectively reduces the generation of explicit content while being competitive with other fine-tuning-based approaches, as assessed via independent NSFW detectors. Moreover, we evaluate the impact of the SFW sampler on image quality and show that the proposed correction scheme comes at a minor cost with negligible effect on samples not needing correction. Our study confirms the suitability of the SFW sampler towards aligned SBM models and the potential of using model-agnostic conditioning for the prevention of unwanted images.