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exponential smoothing theory and implementation

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Time Series From Scratch -- Exponential Smoothing Theory and Implementation

#artificialintelligenceAug-15-2021, 16:50:45 GMT

This method is also known as Holt's method, after Charles C. Holt and his paper from 1957. It's called double exponential smoothing because it's based on two smoothing parameters -- Alpha (for level) and Beta (for trend). The algorithm solves the primary issue of simple exponential smoothing, as now the forecasts can account for the trend in historical data. The ExponentialSmoothing class from the Statsmodels library accepts a trend parameter, with the possible values being add and mul. If you can't decide which type of trend is present in your data, test both and see which results in the lowest error.

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Technology: Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Statistical Learning (0.99)

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