expectation model
Leveraging Computation of Expectation Models for Commonsense Affordance Estimation on 3D Scene Graphs
Saucedo, Mario Alberto Valdes, Stathoulopoulos, Nikolaos, Patel, Akash, Kanellakis, Christoforos, Nikolakopoulos, George
This article studies the commonsense object affordance concept for enabling close-to-human task planning and task optimization of embodied robotic agents in urban environments. The focus of the object affordance is on reasoning how to effectively identify object's inherent utility during the task execution, which in this work is enabled through the analysis of contextual relations of sparse information of 3D scene graphs. The proposed framework develops a Correlation Information (CECI) model to learn probability distributions using a Graph Convolutional Network, allowing to extract the commonsense affordance for individual members of a semantic class. The overall framework was experimentally validated in a real-world indoor environment, showcasing the ability of the method to level with human commonsense. For a video of the article, showcasing the experimental demonstration, please refer to the following link: https://youtu.be/BDCMVx2GiQE
Rethinking Missing Data: Aleatoric Uncertainty-Aware Recommendation
Wang, Chenxu, Feng, Fuli, Zhang, Yang, Wang, Qifan, Hu, Xunhan, He, Xiangnan
Historical interactions are the default choice for recommender model training, which typically exhibit high sparsity, i.e., most user-item pairs are unobserved missing data. A standard choice is treating the missing data as negative training samples and estimating interaction likelihood between user-item pairs along with the observed interactions. In this way, some potential interactions are inevitably mislabeled during training, which will hurt the model fidelity, hindering the model to recall the mislabeled items, especially the long-tail ones. In this work, we investigate the mislabeling issue from a new perspective of aleatoric uncertainty, which describes the inherent randomness of missing data. The randomness pushes us to go beyond merely the interaction likelihood and embrace aleatoric uncertainty modeling. Towards this end, we propose a new Aleatoric Uncertainty-aware Recommendation (AUR) framework that consists of a new uncertainty estimator along with a normal recommender model. According to the theory of aleatoric uncertainty, we derive a new recommendation objective to learn the estimator. As the chance of mislabeling reflects the potential of a pair, AUR makes recommendations according to the uncertainty, which is demonstrated to improve the recommendation performance of less popular items without sacrificing the overall performance. We instantiate AUR on three representative recommender models: Matrix Factorization (MF), LightGCN, and VAE from mainstream model architectures. Extensive results on two real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of AUR w.r.t. better recommendation results, especially on long-tail items.
Detecting of multi-modality in probabilistic regression models
Polar, Andrew, Poluektov, Michael
This paper focuses on building of models of stochastic systems with aleatoric uncertainty. The nature of the considered systems is such that the identical inputs can result in different outputs, i.e. the output is a random variable. The suggested in this paper algorithm targets an identification of multi-modal properties of the output distributions, even when they depend on the inputs and vary significantly throughout the dataset. This ability of the suggested method to recognise complex and not only bell-shaped distributions follows from its construction and is backed up by provided experimental results. In general, the suggested method belongs to the category of boosted ensemble learning techniques, where the single deterministic component can be an arbitrarily-chosen regression model. The algorithm does not require any special properties of the chosen regression model, other than having descriptive capabilities with some expected accuracy for the training data type.
The Successor Representation, $\gamma$-Models, br / and Infinite-Horizon Prediction
Standard single-step models have a horizon of one. This post describes a method for training predictive dynamics models in continuous state spaces with an infinite, probabilistic horizon. Reinforcement learning algorithms are frequently categorized by whether they predict future states at any point in their decision-making process. Those that do are called model-based, and those that do not are dubbed model-free. This classification is so common that we mostly take it for granted these days; I am guilty of using it myself.
Planning with Expectation Models for Control
Kudashkina, Katya, Wan, Yi, Naik, Abhishek, Sutton, Richard S.
In model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL), Wan et al. (2019) showed conditions under which the environment model could produce the expectation of the next feature vector rather than the full distribution, or a sample thereof, with no loss in planning performance. Such expectation models are of interest when the environment is stochastic and non-stationary, and the model is approximate, such as when it is learned using function approximation. In these cases a full distribution model may be impractical and a sample model may be either more expensive computationally or of high variance. Wan et al. considered only planning for prediction to evaluate a fixed policy. In this paper, we treat the control case - planning to improve and find a good approximate policy. We prove that planning with an expectation model must update a state-value function, not an action-value function as previously suggested (e.g., Sorg & Singh, 2010). This opens the question of how planning influences action selections. We consider three strategies for this and present general MBRL algorithms for each. We identify the strengths and weaknesses of these algorithms in computational experiments. Our algorithms and experiments are the first to treat MBRL with expectation models in a general setting.
The successor representation, gamma-models, and infinite-horizon prediction
Reinforcement learning algorithms are frequently categorized by whether they predict future states at any point in their decision-making process. Those that do are called model-based, and those that do not are dubbed model-free. This classification is so common that we mostly take it for granted these days; I am guilty of using it myself. However, this distinction is not as clear-cut as it may initially seem. In this post, I will talk about an alternative view that emphases the mechanism of prediction instead of the content of prediction.
Planning with Expectation Models
Wan, Yi, Zaheer, Muhammad, White, Adam, White, Martha, Sutton, Richard S.
Distribution and sample models are two popular model choices in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL). However, learning these models can be intractable, particularly when the state and action spaces are large. Expectation models, on the other hand, are relatively easier to learn due to their compactness and have also been widely used for deterministic environments. For stochastic environments, it is not obvious how expectation models can be used for planning as they only partially characterize a distribution. In this paper, we propose a sound way of using approximate expectation models for MBRL. In particular, we 1) show that planning with an expectation model is equivalent to planning with a distribution model if the state value function is linear in state features, 2) analyze two common parametrization choices for approximating the expectation: linear and non-linear expectation models, 3) propose a sound model-based policy evaluation algorithm and present its convergence results, and 4) empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed planning algorithm.
A novel improved fuzzy support vector machine based stock price trend forecast model
Wang, Shuheng, Li, Guohao, Bao, Yifan
Application of fuzzy support vector machine in stock price forecast. Support vector machine is a new type of machine learning method proposed in 1990s. It can deal with classification and regression problems very successfully. Due to the excellent learning performance of support vector machine, the technology has become a hot research topic in the field of machine learning, and it has been successfully applied in many fields. However, as a new technology, there are many limitations to support vector machines. There is a large amount of fuzzy information in the objective world. If the training of support vector machine contains noise and fuzzy information, the performance of the support vector machine will become very weak and powerless. As the complexity of many factors influence the stock price prediction, the prediction results of traditional support vector machine cannot meet people with precision, this study improved the traditional support vector machine fuzzy prediction algorithm is proposed to improve the new model precision. NASDAQ Stock Market, Standard & Poor's (S&P) Stock market are considered. Novel advanced- fuzzy support vector machine (NA-FSVM) is the proposed methodology.