evidence theory
Synergistic Fusion of Multi-Source Knowledge via Evidence Theory for High-Entropy Alloy Discovery
Ha, Minh-Quyet, Le, Dinh-Khiet, Dao, Duc-Anh, Vu, Tien-Sinh, Nguyen, Duong-Nguyen, Nguyen, Viet-Cuong, Kino, Hiori, Huynh, Van-Nam, Dam, Hieu-Chi
Discovering novel high-entropy alloys (HEAs) with desirable properties is challenging due to the vast compositional space and complex phase formation mechanisms. Efficient exploration of this space requires a strategic approach that integrates heterogeneous knowledge sources. Here, we propose a framework that systematically combines knowledge extracted from computational material datasets with domain knowledge distilled from scientific literature using large language models (LLMs). A central feature of this approach is the explicit consideration of element substitutability, identifying chemically similar elements that can be interchanged to potentially stabilize desired HEAs. Dempster-Shafer theory, a mathematical framework for reasoning under uncertainty, is employed to model and combine substitutabilities based on aggregated evidence from multiple sources. The framework predicts the phase stability of candidate HEA compositions and is systematically evaluated on both quaternary alloy systems, demonstrating superior performance compared to baseline machine learning models and methods reliant on single-source evidence in cross-validation experiments. By leveraging multi-source knowledge, the framework retains robust predictive power even when key elements are absent from the training data, underscoring its potential for knowledge transfer and extrapolation. Furthermore, the enhanced interpretability of the methodology offers insights into the fundamental factors governing HEA formation. Overall, this work provides a promising strategy for accelerating HEA discovery by integrating computational and textual knowledge sources, enabling efficient exploration of vast compositional spaces with improved generalization and interpretability.
A Novel Method for Pignistic Information Fusion in the View of Z-number
How to properly fuse information from complex sources is still an open problem. Lots of methods have been put forward to provide a effective solution in fusing intricate information. Among them, Dempster-Shafer evidences theory (DSET) is one of the representatives, it is widely used to handle uncertain information. Based on DSET, a completely new method to fuse information from different sources based on pignistic transformation and Z-numbers is proposed in this paper which is able to handle separate situations of information and keeps high accuracy in producing rational and correct judgments on actual situations. Besides, in order to illustrate the superiority of the proposed method, some numerical examples and application are also provided to verify the validity and robustness of it.
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- Europe > Italy (0.04)
- Asia > China (0.04)
Reliability Assessment of Information Sources Based on Random Permutation Set
Xu, Juntao, Zhan, Tianxiang, Deng, Yong
In pattern recognition, handling uncertainty is a critical challenge that significantly affects decision-making and classification accuracy. Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) is an effective reasoning framework for addressing uncertainty, and the Random Permutation Set (RPS) extends DST by additionally considering the internal order of elements, forming a more ordered extension of DST. However, there is a lack of a transformation method based on permutation order between RPS and DST, as well as a sequence-based probability transformation method for RPS. Moreover, the reliability of RPS sources remains an issue that requires attention. To address these challenges, this paper proposes an RPS transformation approach and a probability transformation method tailored for RPS. On this basis, a reliability computation method for RPS sources, based on the RPS probability transformation, is introduced and applied to pattern recognition. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach effectively bridges the gap between DST and RPS and achieves superior recognition accuracy in classification problems.
- Asia > China > Sichuan Province > Chengdu (0.04)
- North America > United States > Tennessee > Davidson County > Nashville (0.04)
- North America > United States > New Mexico > Bernalillo County > Albuquerque (0.04)
- Information Technology > Information Management (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Statistical Learning (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Uncertainty > Fuzzy Logic (0.46)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Performance Analysis > Accuracy (0.34)
Evaluating Evidential Reliability In Pattern Recognition Based On Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets
Xu, Juntao, Zhan, Tianxiang, Deng, Yong
Determining the reliability of evidence sources is a crucial topic in Dempster-Shafer theory (DST). Previous approaches have addressed high conflicts between evidence sources using discounting methods, but these methods may not ensure the high efficiency of classification models. In this paper, we consider the combination of DS theory and Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets (IFS) and propose an algorithm for quantifying the reliability of evidence sources, called Fuzzy Reliability Index (FRI). The FRI algorithm is based on decision quantification rules derived from IFS, defining the contribution of different BPAs to correct decisions and deriving the evidential reliability from these contributions. The proposed method effectively enhances the rationality of reliability estimation for evidence sources, making it particularly suitable for classification decision problems in complex scenarios. Subsequent comparisons with DST-based algorithms and classical machine learning algorithms demonstrate the superiority and generalizability of the FRI algorithm. The FRI algorithm provides a new perspective for future decision probability conversion and reliability analysis of evidence sources.
- Asia > China > Sichuan Province > Chengdu (0.04)
- North America > United States (0.04)
Time Evidence Fusion Network: Multi-source View in Long-Term Time Series Forecasting
Zhan, Tianxiang, He, Yuanpeng, Li, Zhen, Deng, Yong
In real-world scenarios, time series forecasting often demands timeliness, making research on model backbones a perennially hot topic. To meet these performance demands, we propose a novel backbone from the perspective of information fusion. Introducing the Basic Probability Assignment (BPA) Module and the Time Evidence Fusion Network (TEFN), based on evidence theory, allows us to achieve superior performance. On the other hand, the perspective of multi-source information fusion effectively improves the accuracy of forecasting. Due to the fact that BPA is generated by fuzzy theory, TEFN also has considerable interpretability. In real data experiments, the TEFN partially achieved state-of-the-art, with low errors comparable to PatchTST, and operating efficiency surpass performance models such as Dlinear. Meanwhile, TEFN has high robustness and small error fluctuations in the random hyperparameter selection. TEFN is not a model that achieves the ultimate in single aspect, but a model that balances performance, accuracy, stability, and interpretability.
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- North America > United States > California (0.04)
Random Walk in Random Permutation Set Theory
Zhou, Jiefeng, Li, Zhen, Deng, Yong
Random walk is an explainable approach for modeling natural processes at the molecular level. The Random Permutation Set Theory (RPST) serves as a framework for uncertainty reasoning, extending the applicability of Dempster-Shafer Theory. Recent explorations indicate a promising link between RPST and random walk. In this study, we conduct an analysis and construct a random walk model based on the properties of RPST, with Monte Carlo simulations of such random walk. Our findings reveal that the random walk generated through RPST exhibits characteristics similar to those of a Gaussian random walk and can be transformed into a Wiener process through a specific limiting scaling procedure. This investigation establishes a novel connection between RPST and random walk theory, thereby not only expanding the applicability of RPST, but also demonstrating the potential for combining the strengths of both approaches to improve problem-solving abilities.
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- Europe > United Kingdom > England > Cambridgeshire > Cambridge (0.04)
- Asia > China > Beijing > Beijing (0.04)
The negation of permutation mass function
Negation is an important perspective of knowledge representation. Existing negation methods are mainly applied in probability theory, evidence theory and complex evidence theory. As a generalization of evidence theory, random permutation sets theory may represent information more precisely. However, how to apply the concept of negation to random permutation sets theory has not been studied. In this paper, the negation of permutation mass function is proposed. Moreover, in the negation process, the convergence of proposed negation method is verified. The trends of uncertainty and dissimilarity after each negation operation are investigated. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the rationality of the proposed method.
- Asia > China > Shaanxi Province > Xi'an (0.04)
- Asia > China > Chongqing Province > Chongqing (0.04)
- South America > Argentina > Patagonia > Río Negro Province > Viedma (0.04)
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Limit of the Maximum Random Permutation Set Entropy
Zhou, Jiefeng, Li, Zhen, Cheong, Kang Hao, Deng, Yong
The Random Permutation Set (RPS) is a new type of set proposed recently, which can be regarded as the generalization of evidence theory. To measure the uncertainty of RPS, the entropy of RPS and its corresponding maximum entropy have been proposed. Exploring the maximum entropy provides a possible way of understanding the physical meaning of RPS. In this paper, a new concept, the envelope of entropy function, is defined. In addition, the limit of the envelope of RPS entropy is derived and proved. Compared with the existing method, the computational complexity of the proposed method to calculate the envelope of RPS entropy decreases greatly. The result shows that when $N \to \infty$, the limit form of the envelope of the entropy of RPS converges to $e \times (N!)^2$, which is highly connected to the constant $e$ and factorial. Finally, numerical examples validate the efficiency and conciseness of the proposed envelope, which provides a new insight into the maximum entropy function.
- Asia > Singapore (0.04)
- Asia > China > Sichuan Province > Chengdu (0.04)
- North America > United States > Tennessee (0.04)
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Random Graph Set and Evidence Pattern Reasoning Model
Zhan, Tianxiang, Li, Zhen, Deng, Yong
Evidence theory is widely used in decision-making and reasoning systems. In previous research, Transferable Belief Model (TBM) is a commonly used evidential decision making model, but TBM is a non-preference model. In order to better fit the decision making goals, the Evidence Pattern Reasoning Model (EPRM) is proposed. By defining pattern operators and decision making operators, corresponding preferences can be set for different tasks. Random Permutation Set (RPS) expands order information for evidence theory. It is hard for RPS to characterize the complex relationship between samples such as cycling, paralleling relationships. Therefore, Random Graph Set (RGS) were proposed to model complex relationships and represent more event types. In order to illustrate the significance of RGS and EPRM, an experiment of aircraft velocity ranking was designed and 10,000 cases were simulated. The implementation of EPRM called Conflict Resolution Decision optimized 18.17\% of the cases compared to Mean Velocity Decision, effectively improving the aircraft velocity ranking. EPRM provides a unified solution for evidence-based decision making.
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- North America > United States (0.04)
- Europe > United Kingdom > England > Oxfordshire > Oxford (0.04)
- Asia > China > Beijing > Beijing (0.04)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Uncertainty (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Cognitive Science > Problem Solving (0.86)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Mathematical & Statistical Methods (0.70)
Sherlock Holmes Doesn't Play Dice: The significance of Evidence Theory for the Social and Life Sciences
Chinthalapati, V. L. Raju, Fioretti, Guido
While Evidence Theory (Demster-Shafer Theory, Belief Functions Theory) is being increasingly used in data fusion, its potentialities in the Social and Life Sciences are often obscured by lack of awareness of its distinctive features. With this paper we stress that Evidence Theory can express the uncertainty deriving from the fear that events may materialize, that one has not been able to figure out. By contrast, Probability Theory must limit itself to the possibilities that a decision-maker is currently envisaging. Subsequently, we illustrate how Dempster-Shafer's combination rule relates to Bayes' Theorem for various versions of Probability Theory and discuss which applications of Information Theory can be enhanced by Evidence Theory. Finally, we illustrate our claims with an example where Evidence Theory is used to make sense of the partially overlapping, partially contradictory solutions that appear in an auditing exercise.