TPP models in density estimation and strongly outperforms them in forecasting.

Tensor decompositions are fundamental tools for multiway data analysis.

Autoregressive neural networks within the temporal point process (TPP) framework have become the standard for modeling continuous-time event data. Even though these models can expressively capture event sequences in a one-step-ahead fashion, they are inherently limited for long-term forecasting applications due to the accumulation of errors caused by their sequential nature. To overcome these limitations, we derive ADD-THIN, a principled probabilistic denoising diffusion model for TPPs that operates on entire event sequences. Unlike existing diffusion approaches, ADD-THIN naturally handles data with discrete and continuous components. In experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, our model matches the state-of-the-art TPP models in density estimation and strongly outperforms them in forecasting.

Although pairwise causal relations have been extensively studied in observational longitudinal analyses across many disciplines, incorporating knowledge of causal pairs into deep learning models for temporal event sequences remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for enhancing the performance of transformer-based models in multivariate event sequences by injecting pairwise qualitative causal knowledge such as `event Z amplifies future occurrences of event Y'. We establish a new framework for causal inference in temporal event sequences using a transformer architecture, providing a theoretical justification for our approach, and show how to obtain unbiased estimates of the proposed measure. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach outperforms several state-of-the-art models in terms of prediction accuracy by effectively leveraging knowledge about causal pairs. We also consider a unique application where we extract knowledge around sequences of societal events by generating them from a large language model, and demonstrate how a causal knowledge graph can help with event prediction in such sequences. Overall, our framework offers a practical means of improving the performance of transformer-based models in multivariate event sequences by explicitly exploiting pairwise causal information.

We target modeling latent dynamics in high-dimension marked event sequences without any prior knowledge about marker relations. Such problem has been rarely studied by previous works which would have fundamental difficulty to handle the arisen challenges: 1) the high-dimensional markers and unknown relation network among them pose intractable obstacles for modeling the latent dynamic process; 2) one observed event sequence may concurrently contain several different chains of interdependent events; 3) it is hard to well define the distance between two high-dimension event sequences. To these ends, in this paper, we propose a seminal adversarial imitation learning framework for high-dimension event sequence generation which could be decomposed into: 1) a latent structural intensity model that estimates the adjacent nodes without explicit networks and learns to capture the temporal dynamics in the latent space of markers over observed sequence; 2) an efficient random walk based generation model that aims at imitating the generation process of high-dimension event sequences from a bottom-up view; 3) a discriminator specified as a seq2seq network optimizing the rewards to help the generator output event sequences as real as possible. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed method could effectively detect the hidden network among markers and make decent prediction for future marked events, even when the number of markers scales to million level.

Stock price prediction is challenging due to market volatility and its sensitivity to real-time events. While large language models (LLMs) offer new avenues for text-based forecasting, their application in finance is hindered by noisy news data and the lack of explicit answers in text. General-purpose memory architectures struggle to identify the key drivers of price movements. To address this, we propose StockMem, an event-reflection dual-layer memory framework. It structures news into events and mines them along two dimensions: horizontal consolidation integrates daily events, while longitudinal tracking captures event evolution to extract incremental information reflecting market expectation discrepancies. This builds a temporal event knowledge base. By analyzing event-price dynamics, the framework further forms a reflection knowledge base of causal experiences. For prediction, it retrieves analogous historical scenarios and reasons with current events, incremental data, and past experiences. Experiments show StockMem outperforms existing memory architectures and provides superior, explainable reasoning by tracing the information chain affecting prices, enhancing decision transparency in financial forecasting.

The study of neural representations, both in biological and artificial systems, is increasingly revealing the importance of geometric and topological structures. Inspired by this, we introduce Event2Vec, a novel framework for learning representations of discrete event sequences. Our model leverages a simple, additive recurrent structure to learn composable, interpretable embeddings. We provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating that, under specific training objectives, our model's learned representations in a Euclidean space converge to an ideal additive structure. This ensures that the representation of a sequence is the vector sum of its constituent events, a property we term the linear additive hypothesis. To address the limitations of Euclidean geometry for hierarchical data, we also introduce a variant of our model in hyperbolic space, which is naturally suited to embedding tree-like structures with low distortion. We present experiments to validate our hypothesis. Quantitative evaluation on the Brown Corpus yields a Silhouette score of 0.0564, outperforming a Word2Vec baseline (0.0215), demonstrating the model's ability to capture structural dependencies without supervision.