Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Event datasets involve irregular occurrences of events over the timeline and are prevalent in numerous domains.

Time series forecasting plays a vital role in critical domains like energy and transportation, where non-stationary dynamics are deeply intertwined with events in other modalities such as texts. However, incorporating natural language-based external events to improve non-stationary forecasting remains largely unexplored, as most approaches still rely on a single modality, resulting in limited contextual knowledge and model underperformance. Enabling fine-grained multimodal interactions between temporal and textual data is challenged by three fundamental issues: (1) the difficulty of fine-grained synchronization between time-varying discrete textual events and continuous time series; (2) the inherent temporal uncertainty introduced by textual semantics; and (3) the misalignment between textual event embeddings and multi-resolution temporal patterns. In this work, we address these challenges by introducing event-aware non-stationary time series forecasting (EventTSF), an autoregressive generation framework that integrates historical time series with textual events to make subsequent forecasts. Specifically, EventTSF uses autoregressive diffusion with flow matching at each step to capture nuanced temporal-event interactions. To handle event-induced uncertainty, flow matching timesteps are adaptively controlled according to event semantic signals. The underlying denoiser employs a multimodal U-shaped diffusion transformer that efficiently fuses temporal and textual modalities across different resolutions. Extensive experiments on 8 synthetic and real-world datasets show that EventTSF outperforms 12 baselines across diverse event-aware non-stationary time series forecasting scenarios, achieving substantial improvements of 10.7% higher forecasting accuracy and $1.13\times$ faster training efficiency.

Event data, or structured records of ``who did what to whom'' that are automatically extracted from text, is an important source of data for scholars of international politics. The high cost of developing new event datasets, especially using automated systems that rely on hand-built dictionaries, means that most researchers draw on large, pre-existing datasets such as ICEWS rather than developing tailor-made event datasets optimized for their specific research question. This paper describes a ``bag of tricks'' for efficient, custom event data production, drawing on recent advances in natural language processing (NLP) that allow researchers to rapidly produce customized event datasets. The paper introduces techniques for training an event category classifier with active learning, identifying actors and the recipients of actions in text using large language models and standard machine learning classifiers and pretrained ``question-answering'' models from NLP, and resolving mentions of actors to their Wikipedia article to categorize them. We describe how these techniques produced the new POLECAT global event dataset that is intended to replace ICEWS, along with examples of how scholars can quickly produce smaller, custom event datasets. We publish example code and models to implement our new techniques.

How do international crises unfold? We conceptualize of international relations as a strategic chess game between adversaries and develop a systematic way to measure pieces, moves, and gambits accurately and consistently over a hundred years of history. We introduce a new ontology and dataset of international events called ICBe based on a very high-quality corpus of narratives from the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project. We demonstrate that ICBe has higher coverage, recall, and precision than existing state of the art datasets and conduct two detailed case studies of the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) and Crimea-Donbas Crisis (2014). We further introduce two new event visualizations (event icongraphy and crisis maps), an automated benchmark for measuring event recall using natural language processing (sythnetic narratives), and an ontology reconstruction task for objectively measuring event precision. We make the data, online appendix, replication material, and visualizations of every historical episode available at a companion website www.crisisevents.org and the github repository.

The literature shows outstanding capabilities for CNNs in event recognition in images. However, fewer attempts are made to analyze the potential causes behind the decisions of the models and exploring whether the predictions are based on event-salient objects or regions? To explore this important aspect of event recognition, in this work, we propose an explainable event recognition framework relying on Grad-CAM and an Xception architecture-based CNN model. Experiments are conducted on three large-scale datasets covering a diversified set of natural disasters, social, and sports events. Overall, the model showed outstanding generalization capabilities obtaining overall F1-scores of 0.91, 0.94, and 0.97 on natural disasters, social, and sports events, respectively. Moreover, for subjective analysis of activation maps generated through Grad-CAM for the predicted samples of the model, a crowdsourcing study is conducted to analyze whether the model's predictions are based on event-related objects/regions or not? The results of the study indicate that 78%, 84%, and 78% of the model decisions on natural disasters, sports, and social events datasets, respectively, are based onevent-related objects or regions.

Event cameras are novel sensors that perceive the per-pixel intensity changes and output asynchronous event streams, showing lots of advantages over traditional cameras, such as high dynamic range (HDR) and no motion blur. It has been shown that events alone can be used for object tracking by motion compensation or prediction. However, existing methods assume that the target always moves and is the stand-alone object. Moreover, they fail to track the stopped non-independent moving objects on fixed scenes. In this paper, we propose a novel event-based object tracking framework, called SiamEvent, using Siamese networks via edge-aware similarity learning. Importantly, to find the part having the most similar edge structure of target, we propose to correlate the embedded events at two timestamps to compute the target edge similarity. The Siamese network enables tracking arbitrary target edge by finding the part with the highest similarity score. This extends the possibility of event-based object tracking applied not only for the independent stand-alone moving objects, but also for various settings of the camera and scenes. In addition, target edge initialization and edge detector are also proposed to prevent SiamEvent from the drifting problem. Lastly, we built an open dataset including various synthetic and real scenes to train and evaluate SiamEvent. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SiamEvent achieves up to 15% tracking performance enhancement than the baselines on the real-world scenes and more robust tracking performance in the challenging HDR and motion blur conditions.

Event datasets include events that occur irregularly over the timeline and are prevalent in numerous domains. We introduce proximal graphical event models (PGEM) as a representation of such datasets. PGEMs belong to a broader family of models that characterize relationships between various types of events, where the rate of occurrence of an event type depends only on whether or not its parents have occurred in the most recent history. The main advantage over the state of the art models is that they are entirely data driven and do not require additional inputs from the user, which can require knowledge of the domain such as choice of basis functions or hyperparameters in graphical event models. We theoretically justify our learning of optimal windows for parental history and the choices of parental sets, and the algorithm are sound and complete in terms of parent structure learning. We present additional efficient heuristics for learning PGEMs from data, demonstrating their effectiveness on synthetic and real datasets.

Event datasets include events that occur irregularly over the timeline and are prevalent in numerous domains. We introduce proximal graphical event models (PGEM) as a representation of such datasets. PGEMs belong to a broader family of models that characterize relationships between various types of events, where the rate of occurrence of an event type depends only on whether or not its parents have occurred in the most recent history. The main advantage over the state of the art models is that they are entirely data driven and do not require additional inputs from the user, which can require knowledge of the domain such as choice of basis functions or hyperparameters in graphical event models. We theoretically justify our learning of optimal windows for parental history and the choices of parental sets, and the algorithm are sound and complete in terms of parent structure learning. We present additional efficient heuristics for learning PGEMs from data, demonstrating their effectiveness on synthetic and real datasets.

Analyzing international political behavior based on similar precedent circumstances is one of the basic techniques that policymakers use to monitor and assess current situations. Our goal is to investigate how to analyze geopolitical conflicts as sequences of events and to determine what probabilistic models are suitable to perform these analyses. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of N-grams models on the problem of forecasting political conflicts from sequences of events. For the current phase of the project, we focused on event data collected from the Balkans war in the 1990's. Our experimental results indicate that N-gram models have impressive results when applied to this data set, with accuracies above 90\% for most configurations.