For an approaching disaster, the tracking of time-sensitive critical information such as hurricane evacuation notices is challenging in the United States. These notices are issued and distributed rapidly by numerous local authorities that may spread across multiple states. They often undergo frequent updates and are distributed through diverse online portals lacking standard formats. In this study, we developed an approach to timely detect and track the locally issued hurricane evacuation notices. The text data were collected mainly with a spatially targeted web scraping method. They were manually labeled and then classified using natural language processing techniques with deep learning models. The classification of mandatory evacuation notices achieved a high accuracy (recall = 96%). We used Hurricane Ian (2022) to illustrate how real-time evacuation notices extracted from local government sources could be redistributed with a Web GIS system. Our method applied to future hurricanes provides live data for situation awareness to higher-level government agencies and news media. The archived data helps scholars to study government responses toward weather warnings and individual behaviors influenced by evacuation history. The framework may be applied to other types of disasters for rapid and targeted retrieval, classification, redistribution, and archiving of real-time government orders and notifications.

Natural disasters such as hurricanes are increasing and causing widespread devastation. People's decisions and actions regarding whether to evacuate or not are critical and have a large impact on emergency planning and response. Our interest lies in computationally modeling complex relationships among various factors influencing evacuation decisions. We conducted a study on the evacuation of Hurricane Irma of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. The study was guided by the Protection motivation theory (PMT), a widely-used framework to understand people's responses to potential threats. Graphical models were constructed to represent the complex relationships among the factors involved and the evacuation decision. We evaluated different graphical structures based on conditional independence tests using Irma data. The final model largely aligns with PMT. It shows that both risk perception (threat appraisal) and difficulties in evacuation (coping appraisal) influence evacuation decisions directly and independently. Certain information received from media was found to influence risk perception, and through it influence evacuation behaviors indirectly. In addition, several variables were found to influence both risk perception and evacuation behaviors directly, including family and friends' suggestions, neighbors' evacuation behaviors, and evacuation notices from officials.

For applied scientists--that intrepid cadre who get their hands dirty in the sometimes dangerous world beyond the ivory tower, participating in difficult decisions with little time and major consequences--getting the right answer is only half the battle. The other half is successfully explaining what they've found, and what it means. This winter's debris flows in the posh community of Montecito, California, which led to more than 20 deaths, provided examples of success and failure on both counts. And those successes and failures have ramifications far beyond managing geophysical risks. Sean W. Fleming is a geophysicist by training and author of Where the River Flows: Scientific Reflections on Earth's Waterways.