Estimating hidden states in dynamical systems, also known as optimal filtering, is a long-standing problem in various fields of science and engineering. In this paper, we introduce a general filtering framework, LLM-Filter1, which leverages large language models (LLMs) for state estimation by embedding noisy observations with text prototypes. In various experiments for classical dynamical systems, we find that first, state estimation can significantly benefit from the reasoning knowledge embedded in pre-trained LLMs. By achieving proper modality alignment with the frozen LLM, LLM-Filter outperforms the state-of-the-art learning-based approaches. Second, we carefully design the prompt structure, System-as-Prompt (SaP), incorporating task instructions that enable the LLM to understand the estimation tasks. Guided by these prompts, LLM-Filter exhibits exceptional generalization, capable of performing filtering tasks accurately in changed or even unseen environments. We further observe a scaling-law behavior in LLM-Filter, where accuracy improves with larger model sizes and longer training times. These findings make LLM-Filter a promising foundation model of filtering.

Evaluating observational estimators of causal effects demands information that is rarely available: unconfounded interventions and outcomes from the population of interest, created either by randomization or adjustment. As a result, it is customary to fall back on simulators when creating benchmark tasks. Simulators offer great control but are often too simplistic to make challenging tasks, either because they are hand-designed and lack the nuances of real-world data, or because they are fit to observational data without structural constraints. In this work, we propose a general, repeatable strategy for turning observational data into sequential structural causal models and challenging estimation tasks by following two simple principles: 1) fitting real-world data where possible, and 2) creating complexity by composing simple, hand-designed mechanisms. We implement these ideas in a highly configurable software package and apply it to the well-known Adult income data set to construct the IncomeSCM simulator. From this, we devise multiple estimation tasks and sample data sets to compare established estimators of causal effects. The tasks present a suitable challenge, with effect estimates varying greatly in quality between methods, despite similar performance in the modeling of factual outcomes, highlighting the need for dedicated causal estimators and model selection criteria.

In this paper, we propose a novel conceptual framework to detect outliers using optimal transport with a concave cost function. Conventional outlier detection approaches typically use a two-stage procedure: first, outliers are detected and removed, and then estimation is performed on the cleaned data. However, this approach does not inform outlier removal with the estimation task, leaving room for improvement. To address this limitation, we propose an automatic outlier rectification mechanism that integrates rectification and estimation within a joint optimization framework. We take the first step to utilize the optimal transport distance with a concave cost function to construct a rectification set in the space of probability distributions. Then, we select the best distribution within the rectification set to perform the estimation task. Notably, the concave cost function we introduced in this paper is the key to making our estimator effectively identify the outlier during the optimization process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach over conventional approaches in simulations and empirical analyses for mean estimation, least absolute regression, and the fitting of option implied volatility surfaces.

We initiate a systematic investigation of distribution learning (density estimation) when the data is distributed across multiple servers. The servers must communicate with a referee and the goal is to estimate the underlying distribution with as few bits of communication as possible. We focus on non-parametric density estimation of discrete distributions with respect to the l1 and l2 norms. We provide the first non-trivial upper and lower bounds on the communication complexity of this basic estimation task in various settings of interest. Specifically, our results include the following: 1. When the unknown discrete distribution is unstructured and each server has only one sample, we show that any blackboard protocol (i.e., any protocol in which servers interact arbitrarily using public messages) that learns the distribution must essentially communicate the entire sample.

Perception, in theoretical neuroscience, has been modeled as the encoding of external stimuli into internal signals, which are then decoded.

This progress has led to a revival of robust statistics from an algorithmic perspective (see, e.g., [DK19, DKK+21] for surveys on the topic).

Large language models (LLMs) excel at explicit reasoning, but their implicit computational strategies remain underexplored. Decades of psychophysics research show that humans intuitively process and integrate noisy signals using near-optimal Bayesian strategies in perceptual tasks. We ask whether LLMs exhibit similar behaviour and perform optimal multimodal integration without explicit training or instruction. Adopting the psychophysics paradigm, we infer computational principles of LLMs from systematic behavioural studies. We introduce a behavioural benchmark - BayesBench: four magnitude estimation tasks (length, location, distance, and duration) over text and image, inspired by classic psychophysics, and evaluate a diverse set of nine LLMs alongside human judgments for calibration. Through controlled ablations of noise, context, and instruction prompts, we measure performance, behaviour and efficiency in multimodal cue-combination. Beyond accuracy and efficiency metrics, we introduce a Bayesian Consistency Score that detects Bayes-consistent behavioural shifts even when accuracy saturates. Our results show that while capable models often adapt in Bayes-consistent ways, accuracy does not guarantee robustness. Notably, GPT-5 Mini achieves perfect text accuracy but fails to integrate visual cues efficiently. This reveals a critical dissociation between capability and strategy, suggesting accuracy-centric benchmarks may over-index on performance while missing brittle uncertainty handling. These findings reveal emergent principled handling of uncertainty and highlight the correlation between accuracy and Bayesian tendencies. We release our psychophysics benchmark and consistency metric (https://bayes-bench.github.io) as evaluation tools and to inform future multimodal architecture designs.

We initiate a systematic investigation of distribution learning (density estimation) when the data is distributed across multiple servers. The servers must communicate with a referee and the goal is to estimate the underlying distribution with as few bits of communication as possible. We focus on non-parametric density estimation of discrete distributions with respect to the l1 and l2 norms. We provide the first non-trivial upper and lower bounds on the communication complexity of this basic estimation task in various settings of interest. Specifically, our results include the following: 1. When the unknown discrete distribution is unstructured and each server has only one sample, we show that any blackboard protocol (i.e., any protocol in which servers interact arbitrarily using public messages) that learns the distribution must essentially communicate the entire sample.

The obtained algorithms are simple, practical, and succeed under broader distributional assumptions compared to prior work.

Estimating hidden states in dynamical systems, also known as optimal filtering, is a long-standing problem in various fields of science and engineering. In this paper, we introduce a general filtering framework, \textbf{LLM-Filter}, which leverages large language models (LLMs) for state estimation by embedding noisy observations with text prototypes. In various experiments for classical dynamical systems, we find that first, state estimation can significantly benefit from the reasoning knowledge embedded in pre-trained LLMs. By achieving proper modality alignment with the frozen LLM, LLM-Filter outperforms the state-of-the-art learning-based approaches. Second, we carefully design the prompt structure, System-as-Prompt (SaP), incorporating task instructions that enable the LLM to understand the estimation tasks. Guided by these prompts, LLM-Filter exhibits exceptional generalization, capable of performing filtering tasks accurately in changed or even unseen environments. We further observe a scaling-law behavior in LLM-Filter, where accuracy improves with larger model sizes and longer training times. These findings make LLM-Filter a promising foundation model of filtering.