Owing to its minimal pollution and efficient energy use, wind energy has become one of the most widely exploited renewable energy resources. The successful integration of wind power into the grid system is contingent upon accurate wind speed forecasting models. However, the task of wind speed forecasting is challenging due to the inherent intermittent characteristics of wind speed. In this paper, a hybrid machine learning approach is developed for predicting short-term wind speed. First, the wind data was decomposed into modal components using Successive Variational Mode Decomposition (SVMD). Then, each sub-signal was fitted into a Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LSSVM) model, with its hyperparameter optimized by a novel variant of Quantum-behaved Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO), QPSO with elitist breeding (EBQPSO). Second, the residuals making up for the differences between the original wind series and the aggregate of the SVMD modes were modeled using long short-term model (LSTM). Then, the overall predicted values were computed using the aggregate of the LSSVM and the LSTM models. Finally, the performance of the proposed model was compared against state-of-the-art benchmark models for forecasting wind speed using two separate data sets collected from a local wind farm. Empirical results show significant improvement in performance by the proposed method, achieving a 1.21% to 32.76% reduction in root mean square error (RMSE) and a 2.05% to 40.75% reduction in mean average error (MAE) compared to the benchmark methods. The entire code implementation of this work is freely available in Github.

Abstract:The accurate wind speed series forecast is very pivotal to security of grid dispatching and the application of wind power. Nevertheless, on account of their nonlinear and non-stationary nature, their short-term forecast is extremely challenging. Therefore, this dissertation raises one short-term wind speed forecast pattern on the foundation of attention with an improved gated recurrent neural network (AtGRU) and a tactic of error correction. That model uses the AtGRU model as the preliminary predictor and the GRU model as the error corrector. At the beginning, singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is employed in previous wind speed series for lessening the noise. Subsequently, historical wind speed series is going to be used for the predictor training. During this process, the prediction can have certain errors. The sequence of these errors processed by variational modal decomposition (VMD) is used to train the corrector of error. The eventual forecast consequence is just the sum of predictor forecast and error corrector. The proposed SSA-AtGRU-VMD-GRU model outperforms the compared models in three case studies on Woodburn, St. Thomas, and Santa Cruz. It is indicated that the model evidently enhances the correction of the wind speed forecast.

Driving Automation Systems (DAS) are subject to complex road environments and vehicle behaviors and increasingly rely on sophisticated sensors and Artificial Intelligence (AI). These properties give rise to unique safety faults stemming from specification insufficiencies and technological performance limitations, where sensors and AI introduce errors that vary in magnitude and temporal patterns, posing potential safety risks. The Safety of the Intended Functionality (SOTIF) standard emerges as a promising framework for addressing these concerns, focusing on scenario-based analysis to identify hazardous behaviors and their causes. Although the current standard provides a basic cause-and-effect model and high-level process guidance, it lacks concepts required to identify and evaluate hazardous errors, especially within the context of AI. This paper introduces two key contributions to bridge this gap. First, it defines the SOTIF Temporal Error and Failure Model (STEAM) as a refinement of the SOTIF cause-and-effect model, offering a comprehensive system-design perspective. STEAM refines error definitions, introduces error sequences, and classifies them as error sequence patterns, providing particular relevance to systems employing advanced sensors and AI. Second, this paper proposes the Model-based SOTIF Analysis of Failures and Errors (MoSAFE) method, which allows instantiating STEAM based on system-design models by deriving hazardous error sequence patterns at module level from hazardous behaviors at vehicle level via weakest precondition reasoning. Finally, the paper presents a case study centered on an automated speed-control feature, illustrating the practical applicability of the refined model and the MoSAFE method in addressing complex safety challenges in DAS.

Algorithms based on the entropy regularized framework, such as Soft Q-learning and Soft Actor-Critic, recently showed state-of-the-art performance on a number of challenging reinforcement learning (RL) tasks. The regularized formulation modifies the standard RL objective and thus, generally, converges to a policy different from the optimal greedy policy of the original RL problem. Practically, it is important to control the suboptimality of the regularized optimal policy. In this paper, we propose the optimality-preserving regularized modified policy iteration (MPI) scheme that simultaneously (a) provides desirable properties to intermediate policies such as targeted exploration, and (b) guarantees convergence to the optimal policy with explicit rates depending on the decrease rate of the regularization parameter. This result is based on two more general results. First, we show that the approximate MPI scheme converges as fast as the exact MPI if the decrease rate of error sequence is sufficiently fast; otherwise, its rate of convergence slows down to the errors decrease rate. Second, we show the regularized MPI is an instance of the approximate MPI where regularization plays the role of errors. In a special case of negative entropy regularizer (leading to a popular Soft Q-learning algorithm), our result explicitly links the convergence rate of policy / value iterates to exploration.

We investigate implicit regularization schemes for gradient descent methods applied to unpenalized least squares regression to solve the problem of reconstructing a sparse signal from an underdetermined system of linear measurements under the restricted isometry assumption. For a given parametrization yielding a non-convex optimization problem, we show that prescribed choices of initialization, step size and stopping time yield a statistically and computationally optimal algorithm that achieves the minimax rate with the same cost required to read the data up to poly-logarithmic factors. Beyond minimax optimality, we show that our algorithm adapts to instance difficulty and yields a dimension-independent rate when the signal-to-noise ratio is high enough. Key to the computational efficiency of our method is an increasing step size scheme that adapts to refined estimates of the true solution. We validate our findings with numerical experiments and compare our algorithm against explicit $\ell_{1}$ penalization. Going from hard instances to easy ones, our algorithm is seen to undergo a phase transition, eventually matching least squares with an oracle knowledge of the true support.

A Semi-Hidden Markov Model (SHMM) for bursty error channels is defined by a state transition probability matrix $A$, a prior probability vector $\Pi$, and the state dependent output symbol error probability matrix $B$. Several processes are utilized for estimating $A$, $\Pi$ and $B$ from a given empirically obtained or simulated error sequence. However, despite placing some restrictions on the underlying Markov model structure, we still have a computationally intensive estimation procedure, especially given a large error sequence containing long burst of identical symbols. Thus, in this paper, we utilize under some moderate assumptions, a Markov model with random state transition matrix $A$ equivalent to a unique Block Diagonal Markov model with state transition matrix $\Lambda$ to model an indoor software-defined power line communication system. A computationally efficient modified Baum-Welch algorithm for estimation of $\Lambda$ given an experimentally obtained error sequence from the indoor PLC channel is utilized. Resulting Equivalent Block Diagonal Markov models assist designers to accelerate and facilitate the procedure of novel PLC systems design and evaluation.